Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
893 FXUS64 KLUB 151126 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 626 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 614 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. - Low chances for thunderstorms are forecast Thursday to the west of the I-27 corridor and again Friday in the far eastern Rolling Plains. - Breezy and warm weather is forecast heading into the weekend following the passage of a Pacific cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 In the mid/upper-levels, a large, cold core low was rotating over the San Joaquin Valley; and is upstream of an amplifying subtropical ridge, which was objectively analyzed at 596 dam and centered over central N TX on the 15/00Z UA charts. A wide swath of mid-level subsidence has, and will continue, to advect over the CWA throughout the next 24 hours. However, the low-level jet remains backed towards the southeast, as the anticyclonic vortex ascending through the depth of the subtropical ridge is significantly tilted (i.e., the low-level vortex was centered over the Middle MS River Valley compared to the mid-level vortex centered over central N TX). The orientation of the low-level jet will have an implication on the development of stratus to the west of I-27 corridor this morning. At the surface, winds also remain backed towards the southeast, with no fronts nor mesoscale boundaries of any kind evident on METAR and WTM data. With the expansive surface high located in the Middle MS River Valley as well, southeasterly winds will persist throughout the short-term period. The combination of the moist, upslope flow, in addition to excellent radiational cooling, may result in the development of a thin layer of stratus during the predawn hours Wednesday, primarily to the west of the I-27 corridor. Low-level stratus that does develop will mix out by late morning, as above normal highs expected once again today. Following the cessation of vertical mixing, the airmass will cool quickly due to the clear sky and diminishing winds. Low temperatures were adjusted, particularly across the far southwestern TX PH, where terrain-induced drainages and sandy soils result in much cooler temperatures than the adjacent areas. Lows may reach 50 degrees in the vicinity of Muleshoe during the morning hours Thursday. Winds were also lowered a few kt and aligned with the NBM 25th percentile, as the pressure gradient slackens heading into Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 A few changes have been implemented with this forecast package, primarily involving the introduction of low PoPs across the eastern Rolling Plains for Friday afternoon and evening. The synoptic trends remain on track otherwise. At the beginning of the period, the upper air pattern will feature the ejection of the shortwave trough, with the larger-scale, meridional waveguide finally deamplifying. The leading shortwave perturbation will eject over the northern Great Plains by Thursday evening, with the vorticity lobe displaced nearly 900 miles north of the CWA. A Pacific cold front will extend southward from the center of the opening low, with a narrow corridor of moist, isentropic ascent advecting northeastward along the warm conveyor while translating eastward towards W TX. The NBM has caught on with low/slight chance PoPs for the western zones Thursday, and have been maintained with this prognostication. The development of a couple of fast-moving, high-based thunderstorms will be possible, with a storm motion to the northeast at around 40 mph. Brief downpours and localized strong wind gusts will be the primary hazards, but organized development should be counteracted by skinny updrafts, modest lapse rates, and small hodographs. PoPs will wane late Thursday night, as the primary shortwave trough ejects into southern Manitoba. Shortwave troughing will be maintained across the western Great Plains and Intermountain West heading into Friday from the leading edge of a quasi-zonal extension to the Pacific jet stream noses into the northern Rocky Mountains. As this occurs, a PV anomaly emanating from the exit-region of the Pacific jet stream will propagate southeastward along the upstream tranche of the broadly cyclonic flow. This PV anomaly will evolve into a well-defined vorticity lobe embedded within a southern- stream, basal, shortwave trough pivoting over the Four Corners by Friday evening. Farther east, the Pacific cold front will be moving through the CWA, and the corresponding increase in large-scale forcing for ascent atop the Pacific cold front may result in the development of storms across the eastern Rolling Plains during the afternoon and evening hours Friday. NBM PoPs were adjusted to include locales near the 100th meridian, and storms that develop will move eastward quickly in congruence with the passage of the cold front. Fair weather continues to be forecast this weekend, as shortwave ridging returns to the west of the CWA. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR is expected for the next 24 hours. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...01