126
FXUS64 KLUB 101102
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
602 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

As of 2 AM CDT, the weak cold front was located near the I40
corridor and is expected to continue moving slowly southward. The
front is expected to stall as it reaches Plainview by the early
afternoon. Temperatures may be a degree or two cooler behind the
front, otherwise the only noticable difference ahead and behind
the front will be wind direction. Though many models have backed
off precip chances for our northeast this evening, a potential for
isolated weak virga showers and thunderstorms still exists. The
setup will be somewhat similar to yesterday with a sliver of mid
level moisture being situated overhead as a weakness within the
ridge also moves overhead. A 10% PoP mention has been kept in the
forecast for the late afternoon/evening. The persistent upper
ridge will keep highs in the low/upper 90s area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

We expect more mild (to hot) dry weather Friday and Saturday with
little if any chance for rain. Highs should be in the 90s, which
remains much above "normal" and not far below record highs.

A cold front still looks to be on tap for Sunday and should provide
some relief from the heat going out to the middle of next week. The
ECMWF model shows a stronger short wave diving south out of Canada
through Midwest into the Mississippi Valley region than the GFS.  As
a result, it has more cold air pouring into the central and
southern Plains through the middle part of the week. Because of
this difference in the models, forecast highs locally could be as
low as 60s Tuesday and Wednesday (ECMWF), or 70s to near 80s as
shown by the NBM and GFS. Our forecast sticks with the NBM temps
for now.

As for when it might rain again...no relief is in sight trough
the next 10 days, although model run-to-run or day-to-day
consistency has been low after about 7 days. Some of the runs keep
hinting at an upper low in the southwest US which would increase
our rain chances, but it shows up one run and then disappears
again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...51