919
FXUS64 KLUB 111800
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
100 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1251 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

 - Scattered shower and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
   and should continue into the overnight hours.

 - Additional chances for storms continue Tuesday and Wednesday.

 - Warm and dry conditions expected towards the end of the week,
   before precipitation chances return this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Water vapor imagery this afternoon currently showcases the upper
level trough translating through the Southern Plains, with remnants
from overnight convection extending from Wichita all the way into
the Texas Panhandle. This has lead to some decent showers for some
areas off the Caprock with some WTM sites picking  up at least a
quarter of an inch of rainfall. Conditions will begin to clear
briefly, before we see additional thunderstorms develop off to our
east similar to yesterday. The slow moving trough to our north will
continue to spiral across the Southern Plains with the base of the
trough extending into portions of the Texas Panhandle. Meanwhile at
the surface, a lee low over northeastern New Mexico will allow moist
southeasterly winds to prevail across the FA, allowing for increased
amounts of moisture to be transported into the area from the Gulf.
Increased amounts of moisture are also expected from the H3 to H7
levels, as a monsoonal moisture plume remains oriented across the
region extending from EAX to EPZ. As large scale forcing becomes
better positioned across the area this afternoon, with perturbations
tracking into the region, and the moist upslope component to the
wind. High terrain based thunderstorms are expected to develop
across eastern New Mexico and track into the area by the evening,
with storms likely reaching the state line sometime around or
slightly after 7 PM. The expectation, given better steering flow
aloft compared to yesterday, is that we see more widespread
precipitation chances across much of the FA. There is a chance that
the atmosphere remains stabilized, due to the lingering early morning
convection, but given recent clearing trends this does not look to
be a likely solution. Forecast soundings across the region suggest
that thunderstorms will pose the risk of severe wind gusts, with
DCAPE values of 1200 J/kg, and locally heavy rainfall given PWATs
well above the 90th percentile seasonal normal, warm cloud layer,
and long skinny CAPE profiles. Although storms are expected to move
quickly, localized flash flooding concerns cannot be ruled out,
especially given recent rainfall and if storms back build. There is
a very small localized threat of small hail across the southeastern
Rolling Plains early this afternoon, with some hi-resolution
guidance hinting at a few isolated storms developing off remnant
outflow boundaries. Storms will likely continue overnight, with
forcing for ascent still positioned across the area and a weak LLJ
ramps up allowing storms to grow upscale and into a complex of
storms. The upper trough begins to finally shift southeast Tuesday,
with the FA remaining still under part of the influence of the upper
trough and the axis of monsoonal moisture still set up across the
area. There is a chance for more afternoon thunderstorms to develop
across the higher terrain and track in. However, this will likely be
dependent on how morning convection evolves on Tuesday. If storms
linger longer there is a chance we could remain stable through the
afternoon which would limit activity. Thankfully, much of the
precipitation, easterly component to the winds, and lingering cloud
cover will help keep us on the "cooler" side with highs in the upper
80s to mid 90s today and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

An omega block pattern will continue to dominate across much of the
CONUS as the upper trough translates across the Plains into the
Upper Midwest and two areas of high pressure set up across the
southwestern US and over the Gulf States. Conditions remain the same
as previous forecasts, with the potential for a few scattered showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, as the southern extent of the
FA remains influenced by the upper trough. However, this set up does
not look as favorable as previous forecasts with the trough now
positioned more to the east. Drier conditions are then expected
through Friday afternoon, as the upper level ridge to our west
expands over the region. This will lead to increased height and
thickness values across the region, which will allow for much warmer
temperatures to resume in the mid to upper 90s. Subsidence noted at
the surface high dominating over much of the state. This will likely
help keep things dry, but there  is a chance that any precipitation
trapped beneath the ridge could produce a few isolated showers as it
interacts with subtle perturbations. Synoptically things begin to
change through the weekend, with models a little all over the place
with the upper level high to our east tracking west into the region
and amplifying. Meanwhile, surface trough sets up to our west which
will allow an axis of monsoonal moisture to set up across much of
the area. Ensembles hint at this being our next best chance of
precipitation beginning late Friday through early next week. Will go
ahead and maintain PoP chances until guidance becomes clearer in the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

A strong outflow boundary has pushed south of the region
resulting in a line of thunderstorms over the I-20 corridor.
Tonight, all three TAF sites have at least 60% thunderstorm
chances, initially forming over eastern New Mexico. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected outside of convective activity.

ANB

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...26