145
FXUS64 KLUB 221931
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
131 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 128 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

 - Mainly below normal temperatures expected through Monday.

 - Near normal temperatures associated with breezy to windy west
   winds on Friday.

 - Precipitation chances remain in the forecast Tuesday and
   Wednesday of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 128 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Large scale troughing over the Central Plains this afternoon is
expected to continue its transit eastward through tomorrow as upper
level high moves onshore the PacNW. This will lead to relatively
zonal flow aloft tonight, before becoming northwesterly as a
perturbation at the base of the trough tracks into the region
Thursday afternoon.

Weak FROPA this morning has led to a northerly shift of surface
winds today, where they have become elevated around 15 to 20 mph and
will continue to remain on the low-end breezy side through the late
afternoon before diminishing around sunset. This slightly cooler
airmass and northerly winds will help keep overnight lows chilly, in
the teens to lower 20s tonight, however a few mid-level clouds may
try to limit radiational cooling. As we head into Thursday, a
secondary front is expected to track through which will bring a
reinforcing shot of cold air to the region with daytime highs in the
upper 30s on the Caprock to mid 40s off the Caprock. Lingering areas
of mid level clouds through the afternoon may help keep daytime
highs slightly cooler but confidence in this is low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 128 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Friday marks the beginning of a transition to the upper level
pattern over the CONUS as we move away from the deep broad longwave
trough that has been in place for the better part of the last week
and toward more of a split flow pattern. Flow over the southern High
Plains will quickly back from northwest at the start of the long
term period Friday morning to west by sunrise Saturday. This occurs
as the upper ridge over the eastern Pacific and adjacent West Coast
breaks down as significant moves southeastward over British Columbia
and then splits early Friday with part of the energy racing eastward
toward the Great Lakes and another piece diving southward down the
West Coast, closing off into a low by Saturday evening. The position
of this is now progged over northern California with the low
settling southward to southern California through the remainder of
the weekend. This position is west about 200-300 miles relative to
12Z model run yesterday, the result being more persistent shortwave
ridging over the forecast area into early next week and a delay to
the onset of measurable precipitation. How long that delay will last
remains key to the forecast, but this type of cutoff low is a known
difficulty for the models with no kicker upstream and the ejection
and/or shearing of the low to the east/northeast nearly fully
dependent upon the ejecting subtropical jet streak to its south. For
now, there is okay agreement with an increase in upper difluence
occurring pretty quickly after the ridge shifts east of the forecast
area, increasing deep lift and mid-level isentropic lift and an
increase in precipitation chances Tuesday night and early Wednesday
before shifting northward on Wednesday with the lifting/shearing
upper low. However, there is still plenty of time for the models to
continue to wrangle with this system and further changes are likely.
Still, the main thing to note is a distinct warming trend, at the
surface and aloft, as the system is delaying in ejecting and a trend
favoring rain over wintry weather. The other item of note this
afternoon comes with Friday and the cyclogenesis to our northwest
with a moderately tight surface pressure gradient and height
gradient up to 700 mb that would favor an increase in southwest
surface winds at least into a range from 15-30 mph, warmer
temperatures, and the possibility of elevated fire weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...12