858
FXUS64 KLUB 191125
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
625 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
   afternoon through tonight across much of the region, and a few
   severe storms are possible off the Caprock.

 - Dry and pleasant weather will return to the entire area on
   Sunday and Monday.

 - An active weather pattern will result in daily chances for
   thunderstorms from Tuesday through the rest of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Water vapor imagery early this morning shows the center of the H5
trough spiraling over northern AZ, where it will continue to shift
eastward into the Four Corners region by this afternoon, then into
the TX Panhandle region by the overnight period. Meanwhile, current
WTM observations and satellite imagery at 3 AM show the cold
front positioned roughly along the southern border of the FA.
Given the stalling of the front and little advancement southward
over the last few hours has led to and will continue to lead to a
complex surface pattern through the short term as a strong surface
low tracks into the Big Bend region, hindering the advancement of
the front. Hi-resolution models continue to disagree with the
placement of this front, with models split between the front
advancing southward and stalling near the I-20 corridor while
other models like the RAP and GFS keep the front stalled across
the southwestern South Plains. One caveat to this uncertainty will
be in regards to temperatures this afternoon. Depending where the
front decides to stall this afternoon will play a factor in
daytime highs. If the front stalls south of the FA we will see
cooler temperatures likely in the mid 50s to mid 60s. While if the
front decides to stall further north within the FA we will likely
see temperatures warm into the mid 70s across the southern half
of the FA. Given this uncertainty, went ahead and stuck with the
NBM high temperatures as it looks to portray a nice blend between
the two solutions with cooler highs in the mid 50s to low 60s
across the northern FA and upper 60s to low 70s across the
southern FA. By the overnight period, the front is expected to
have made its way completely through resulting in cooler overnight
lows in the 30s and 40s.

As for precipitation, we will continue to see a lull in precipitation
through the morning hours. Activity will pick back up this
afternoon as the upper level trough begins to move closer to the
region, bringing an area of diffluence overhead as the H5 (60+
knot) and H2 (100+ knot) jet streaks begin to move overhead. This
will provide large scale lift, especially during the overnight
period as the core of the jet looks to be positioned directly
overhead. Although the overnight severe weather threat remains low
over western portions of the FA, forecast soundings across the
eastern Rolling Plains depict MUCAPE values of 1500+ J/kg, bulk
shear magnitudes of 50 knots, and steep lapse rates of 7 C/km.
This will lead to thunderstorms being capable of large hail up to
golf balls and damaging wind gusts off the Caprock. Out west,
thunderstorms will also be possible but will likely stay below
severe limits given lower instability with MUCAPE values ranging
from 500 to 700 J/kg. Additionally, the surface low is expected to
eject east by the early afternoon, which should allow the surface
front to begin its advancement south once again. Depending on
where the FROPA sets up across the area in relation to the
expected dryline and warm front out east, will lead to the chance
of a few discrete supercells to develop within this warming sector
across the southeastern Rolling Plains this evening. However,
confidence in this remains low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Pleasant weather is in store for the second half of the weekend as
flow aloft weakens and becomes more zonal behind the departing upper
level storm system. Clouds will clear throughout the day on Sunday
as a drier airmass settles in, with highs forecast to remain
slightly below normal. Relatively quiet weather continues on Monday,
though with highs rising back above normal as surface flow becomes
more southerly. Beginning on Tuesday, flow aloft will back to a more
southwesterly direction as broad cyclonic flow establishes over most
of the western CONUS. This general synoptic pattern will then
continue through most of the rest of the week, in turn setting the
stage for a rather prolonged period of moist southerly return flow
over Texas. Models continue to highlight a dryline positioning
near or over our area through most of the week, which combined
with what still appears to be a healthy train of upper level
shortwave disturbances will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the entire forecast area from late Tuesday
through at least the end of the work week. Any specifics regarding
impacts or rain amounts are still not yet resolvable at this lead
time, but given very good deterministic and ensemble consensus,
the quite high blended PoPs present through much of the week still
look plenty reasonable given the synoptic pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Low CIGs will continue to impact all three terminals this morning,
with KLBB and KPVW likely dropping to IFR and potentially LIFR
CIGs over the next few hours. Ceilings will then begin to improve
back to MVFR and potentially VFR at KLBB and KPVW before VCTS
develops late this afternoon and begins to threaten CIGs once
again. Showers and thunderstorms will persist through the evening
and into late tonight before diminishing after midnight.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12