553
FXUS64 KLUB 070844
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
244 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 238 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

 - Rain showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage today,
   becoming widespread this evening and continuing through
   Friday.

 - Flood Watch in effect from 6 PM today through 6 PM Friday for
   areas along and east of I-27.

 - Dry and warmer this weekend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

A well-advertised upper low spinning over the Arizona-New Mexico
state line early this morning will begin to spread showers and
thunderstorms across the forecast area today with a peak in activity
expected tonight, also bringing the potential for heavy rain and
flooding mainly tonight and Friday. An increase in both mid level
isentropic lift over a mass of colder air that is advecting into the
forecast area behind a cold front and upper level divergence ahead
of the soon-to-be eastward-moving upper low will set the stage for
the deep layer ascent that will translate into the widespread
precipitation. Deep layer moisture transport ahead of the upper low
will result in precipitable water in excess of the 90th percentile
of climatology will be the fuel for heavy rainfall while progged
MUCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg across roughly the southeastern half of the
forecast area suggest enough precipitation efficiency present to
result in widespread 1-2 inch storm totals west and 2-3 inch amounts
east. Confidence is high enough at this time to issue a Flood Watch
essentially for all areas along and east of the I-27/US-87 corridor
beginning at 6 PM this evening. The cloud cover and precipitation
today will keep temperatures in check and favored a blend of MOS for
today`s highs as NBM looks up to about 5 degrees too warm given
these conditions. Lows tonight are tricky with MOS looking too cool
as persistent east winds and ongoing rainfall are likely to keep
dew point temperatures on the high side. Thus, the warmer NBM is
preferred at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will be ongoing
Friday morning, with the potential for heavy rain continuing through
about midday (especially off the Caprock) as PWATs remain elevated
and broad upper level difluence persists. Rain will end relatively
quickly during the afternoon as the core of the upper low rapidly
pivots northward and dry air surges into the region from the west,
with clear skies expected area-wide after sunset. As the low exits
further northward, flow aloft will weaken and become more zonal
which will bring a continuation of dry weather through the weekend.
Modest ridging aloft and weak westerly surface flow will also boost
high temperatures several degrees above normal beginning on Sunday,
a trend which will continue through early next week with highs
currently looking likely to reach into the 70s area-wide on Tuesday.
Most models then depict a progressive upper trough axis shifting
eastward over the central CONUS by the middle of next week, but at
this time consensus favors a more northerly track of this system
which keeps our region dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

The main change with this TAF set was to delay the onset of MVFR
and IFR ceilings until a few hours after sunrise. Some
directional LLWS currently at LBB and PVW should dial lower as
winds off the deck back more northerly by midnight. Thereafter, a
strong and sustained feed of rich moisture will cause ceilings to
decline Thursday morning coincident with on/off SHRA, some TS at
times and drizzle with reduced visbys. The greatest window for TS
remains Thursday night as deep forcing overspreads the region.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from this evening through Friday afternoon for
TXZ024>026-029>032-035>038-041>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...93