168
FXUS64 KLUB 261937
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
237 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - A few isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across
   southwestern portions of the South Plains through late this
   evening.

 - Much warmer on Sunday with a few afternoon thunderstorms
   possible.

 - Daily chances for storms, some severe, continue through
   Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Cool and mostly cloudy conditions persist across the region this
afternoon in the wake of earlier morning thunderstorms. Surface
analysis places the modified cold front/outflow boundary responsible
for this activity across northern portions of the Permian Basin, and
visible satellite imagery shows this boundary continuing to move
southward at 19z. As a result, the airmass across the forecast area
remains stable to surface-based parcels, and we expect this to be
the case for the rest of this afternoon and evening with the surface
boundary well to our south. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
still expected to develop later this afternoon over eastern NM along
and south of the surface boundary, and it still appears possible
that a storm or two may sneak into southwestern portions of the
South Plains this evening. If these storms can root themselves
within the conditionally unstable layer atop the stable low levels,
MUCAPEs above 2000 J/kg and bulk shear magnitudes above 40 kt would
support a threat for severe hail especially near the TX/NM state
line. However, given the general lack of coherent large scale
forcing, this activity will likely remain isolated with any storms
diminishing by midnight.

On Sunday, a closed upper low over the Great Basin embedded within
broader troughing aloft over most of the western CONUS will begin to
shift eastward, resulting in a strengthening of southwest flow aloft
locally. This will deepen a lee surface trough over eastern CO/NM
which will in turn mix the dryline eastward over our area on Sunday.
Most models depict the dryline ending up right along the I-27
corridor by early afternoon, with lift associated with the dryline
circulation likely to support a few isolated thunderstorms across
central portions of the South Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.
Given the general lack of larger scale forcing and stronger capping
further east, these storms are expected to remain quite sparse, with
the probability of widespread severe weather on Sunday appearing
quite low at this time. Regarding temperatures, it will be a much
warmer day across the region with highs in the mid 80s to near 90
area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Our typical spring pattern looks to continue through next week. A
broad trough centered over the Mountain West will bring
southwesterly flow aloft into the region on Monday. While forcing
initially does not look overly impressive with only weak shortwaves
propagating through the overall large scale flow, a slightly stronger
wave in combination with the cap likely eroding late-evening should
be more than enough to trigger convection, although most of the
storms look to remain off the Caprock. The southern portion of the
aforementioned trough will become partially cut off from the main
flow on Tuesday. As its axis digs closer to the area, storms are
again expected to initiate in the afternoon hours, likewise with
best chances off the Caprock. Showers and thunderstorms should
persist overnight. Wednesday afternoon looks less favorable behind
the main trough, but storms will again be possible with a trailing
shortwave. An upper ridge on Thursday should give us a break from
the parade of storm chances. Another broad trough will develop over
the west Friday into the weekend. Although it is too far out to be
specific, the active weather looks to continue for the foreseeable
future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Precipitation has come to an end at LBB and PVW, while rain will
continue for a couple hours longer at CDS. Low confidence CIG
forecast for the rest of this afternoon; current expectation is
for all sites to bounce between IFR and MVFR in the near term
before VFR at LBB/PVW and MVFR at CDS establish by this evening.
Confidence is higher that IFR CIGs will return to all TAF sites
tonight, along with potential visibility reductions from BR/FG.
Finally, a few isolated TS may develop this evening west or
southwest of LBB, but no terminal impacts are expected at this
time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ026-031-032-
036>038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...30