931
FXUS64 KLUB 150845
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
245 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 229 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

  - Warm and dry this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon.

  - Chance of showers, possible thunderstorms Sunday afternoon
    into Monday morning. Locally heavy rainfall possible Sunday
    night.

  - Temperatures expected to be cooler next week behind a cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Tranquil weather is in place across the region early this morning as
a surface high and mid-upper level ridge continue to shift to the
east of the region. This is well in advance of the next storm system
moving into the western CONUS. Between the departing ridge and
approaching trough, southwesterly flow has developed aloft, and will
persist over the southern High Plains for the next few days. In
response, surface troughing will establish itself in the lee of the
Rockies and support generally southerly winds today and tonight. The
wind will increase to modestly breezy levels (sustained around 15
knots) for a period this afternoon. The southerly low-level flow and
full insolation will lead to another warm mid-November day, with
highs in the lower to middle 70s. The meridional winds will carry
somewhat improved, albeit shallow, moisture northward into the
region, particularly late today into tonight. The moisture advection
will help secure a milder night tonight with lows mostly in the
upper 40s and lower 50s. In fact, a bout of stratus, perhaps even
patchy fog, could affect the western counties toward 12Z Saturday.
Confidence in fog is low given the weak signal in the current NWP,
so we have left it out of the forecast grids, but we have included
increased cloud cover over the western and central zones after 9Z
tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 229 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

A closed upper low is still on track to develop late tomorrow
afternoon/evening from the upper trough currently situated over the
West Coast. The upper low will track from Baja across northern
Mexico before moving over the Trans-Pecos into southeastern New
Mexico. Upper diffluence will increase greatly ahead of the upper
low by late Sunday and will bring once again the chance for
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall. Most of the rainfall is
expected to occur Sunday night through mid/late morning Monday.
PWATs are progged to range from 1 to 1.5 inch area wide, roughly 250-
300% of normal. Current storm total QPF shows a low end of 2 inches
to a high of 3.5 inches. While this will vary greatly with some
areas receiving more and some less, this is a great amount of
rainfall for this time of year. The daily record rainfall for
Lubbock for November 17th is 0.82 inch and 0.62 inch for November
18th, and the monthly average is 0.80 inch. There will be
adjustments made to the forecast as the event draws near and data
become more fine tuned, but there is a high chance that flood hazard
products will be needed within the next day or two. Rain will
diminish from west to east Monday morning through the afternoon as
the upper low begins to track over the FA. Some residual wrap-around
precip will be possible Monday afternoon and evening across our
northwestern and northern zones, but should be relatively light.
This should all be in the form of liquid rain as temp profiles are
progged to be well above freezing in the low levels. One additional
forecast issue will be wind speeds early Monday morning into the
evening. Guidance keeps wind speeds just below advisory criteria,
but this will depend on the exact tract of the upper low. With the
current forecast path, directly over the FA, the highest wind speeds
will remain south of the FA in the Permian Basin.

A secondary front continues to be progged for late Tuesday as the
upper low moves into the Northern Plains. The GFS has backed off on
the strength of the front significantly. The ECMWF, being consistent
with previous runs, has a more amplified upper trough than the GFS
and as a result a stronger front. The forecast will continue to
reflect temps reaching near to below freezing area wide Wednesday
and Thursday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

There is a very small chance of MVFR CIGS at KCDS early Friday
morning, otherwise VFR is expected.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...01