Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
337 FXUS64 KLUB 142315 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 615 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 614 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 - Drier and cooler tonight with some low clouds by Wednesday morning over the far southwest South Plains. - Low chances for thunderstorms are forecast Thursday near the NM/TX border. - Breezy and warm weather is forecast for the rest of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 The final round of showers and storms was gradually exiting our northwestern most counties early this afternoon ahead of an expansive area of subsidence and drying aloft. This drying is courtesy of a broad mid and upper high drifting north over eastern TX which is spreading height and thickness gains our way. This process will serve to shove a narrow plume of monsoonal moisture and precip from Carlsbad-Clovis-Stratford farther WNW tonight and away from our forecast area. Lows tonight will be on the cooler side for a change under clear skies, light winds and lower dewpoints than recent nights; however, there is a window for low stratus development toward daybreak across the far southwest South Plains on the edge of a moist tongue forecast to extend from the Permian Basin to northern Lea County. Since this feature is already host to a layer of low clouds at noon over the eastern Permian Basin, feel the HREF and CONSSHORT look more believable than the NBM with low clouds sneaking into our far SW zones Wednesday morning before mixing out by midday. Another round of very mild highs in the 80s awaits on Wednesday as we remain on the western periphery of upper ridging. NBM`s highs may need to be bumped up a touch in later forecasts as dewpoints will mix out lower than today allowing for deeper mixing. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Precipitation chances Thursday remain on track for the long term package. An upper level Omega blocking pattern will begin to break down Thursday. An upper low just off the coast of New England will track off into the Atlantic as a secondary low over the Intermountain West translates northward toward Saskatchewan Canada. On the surface, a lee side low will develop over southeastern Colorado. Southerly surface winds will increase during the afternoon in response to a tightening pressure gradient with wind speeds up to 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph possible. The same lee side low will swing a Pacific cold front toward the region Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front. Slight chance PoPs are forecasted for portions of the far southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains Thursday afternoon and evening with models indicating storms developing over eastern New Mexico and track east into our region. Severe weather threat will be low with any thunderstorms that develop. The Pacific front will gradually continue to trek through the region Friday. Over the weekend, models are in disagreement on the upper level pattern. Both ECMWF and GFS indicate a positively tilted trough filling in over western CONUS following the exit of the upper low. However, GFS indicates a shortwave trough will develop on the base of the aforementioned trough and translate over the region. The combination of the shortwave and the Pacific cold front could bring precipitation chances late Friday into Saturday across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and the Rolling Plains. Previous forecasts included PoPs, however models now indicate most precipitation will be to the southeast of our region as southwesterly surface winds will keep the low levels dry. Therefore, NBM PoPs have been left as is, although could expect that to change for future forecast packages. Good news is with either upper level pattern, we will see a slight decrease in temperatures over the weekend with some areas on the Caprock seeing highs in the upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Low clouds tonight should be confined to areas well southwest of KLBB. As a result, VFR conditions are expected at all three terminals through the TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...07