423
FXUS64 KLUB 281728
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1128 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1127 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

 - There is an increasing potential for fire weather concerns Sunday
   through Tuesday.

 - A High Wind event is forecast to affect the entire region Tuesday.

 - Potentially significant fire weather conditions are forecast to
   develop Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the overnight
hours. Mostly clear skies and light southwest winds will drive low
temperatures down into the mid 30s across much of the area. Weak
relative high pressure over central Texas combined with a stronger
low moving over the Great Lakes region today will allow for slightly
more breezy conditions, with southwest winds potentially gusting to
20 mph this afternoon. The stronger warm advection will bring high
temperatures into the 70s, with highest temperatures off the
Caprock. Winds will diminish this evening and mostly sunny/clear
conditions will persist.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Several changes were initiated with this forecast cycle, including:
adjustments to the PoPs Sunday and Tuesday, the magnitude of the
winds Tuesday, and the introduction of blowing dust into the grids
Tuesday. At the beginning of the period, the mid/upper-levels will
feature a high-frequency wave pattern over the northeastern Pacific
Ocean and into North America, facilitating what will be a series of
cyclonically-breaking wave events throughout the scope of the
extended period. A split-flow regime will be maintained across the
western U.S. interior Saturday, as an anomalously strong ridge
shifts over the northern Rocky Mountains, with its apex arcing over
British Columbia into Saskatchewan. Farther south, a closed low
originating from the decayed, negatively-tilted trough emanating out
of the zonal extension of the Pacific jet stream will be embedded
within the southern-stream tranche of the split-flow, and will
rotate inland over Southern California and into the Yuma Desert by
Saturday afternoon. A shortwave ridge will shift eastward over the
region Saturday as the compact low rotates towards the Sun Corridor,
with its amplitude being heavily modulated by the highly amplified,
meridional, northern-stream waveguides. Transverse cirrus banding
will advect over the CWA Saturday given the superposition of the
southern-stream jet streaks, but it will have little effect on
daytime insolation as the thicker cirrus shield is forecast to
arrive towards dusk.

At the surface, a weakening, synoptic-scale cold front will have
crossed through the CWA during the morning hours Saturday. Benign
weather is expected as post-frontal winds veer east-southeastward
beneath the slightly positive geopotential height tendencies. CAA
post-FROPA will be weak, and the airmass will be quick to recover
despite relatively shallow mixing heights. High temperatures will
warm into lower-middle 70s area-wide Saturday. The mid/upper-level
pattern will become more-Kafkaesque following the collapse of the
northern-stream ridging via a series of intense shortwave troughs
propagating across the far northeastern Pacific Ocean. This will
allow the aforementioned, southern-stream closed low to accelerate
east-northeastward and eject over the west-central High Plains by
Sunday afternoon. The net increase in large-scale, geostrophic
deformation atop the sharpening leeward pressure falls will cause
the surface trough across eastern New Mexico to transition into a
dryline and propagate eastward across the CWA. Farther north, lee
cyclogenesis of a near-996 mb low is expected across eastern CO,
driving an isallobaric response that will increase winds ahead of
and behind the eastward-mixing dryline, with an expectation for
sustained, southwesterly winds between 20-30 mph to develop Sunday
afternoon. Winds may near advisory-level Sunday, and a consideration
was made to raise winds; however, the position of this ejecting low,
in addition to the warming of theta-e with height in the mid-levels,
should offset faster winds from coming to fruition as mixing heights
are capped near or below 700 mb. High temperatures will be a few
degrees warmer than Saturday, and will garner the first of several
days of fire weather concerns for the CWA. PoPs were significantly
reduced area-wide Sunday, as the thinking continues to trend towards
the mid-level dry slot and rapid, eastward-mixing of the dryline to
evacuate rain shower chances near and/or east of the 100th meridian.

The cyclonically-breaking wave event and related collapsing of the
high-amplitude ridge will maintain the highly progressive flow
across the Lower 48. There are strong indications of what should be
another intense shortwave trough, accompanied with a closed low,
digging into Baja California and ejecting into the Desert Southwest.
Breezy, southwesterly winds are forecast to remain intact Monday, as
the leeward pressure falls are maintained by the cross-barrier flow
even as the shortwave ridge propagates over West Texas. The temporal
rise in geopotential heights, with 850 mb temperatures warming to
nearly 20 deg C, should cause highs to further warm compared to the
previous day. However, wind speeds will be weaker than Sunday as the
primary surface low is displaced over 300 miles north of the CWA and
as the primary jet streak emerges over the Mogollon Rim. The warm
surface temperatures and breezy winds will lead to additional fire
weather concerns area-wide Monday afternoon. The progressive wave
train emerging out of the Pacific Basin is forecast to further
amplify during the overnight hours, with the southern-stream
shortwave trough forecast to attain a neutral-tilt as it moves over
the southern Rocky Mountains. Global NWP guidance remains somewhat
divergent on whether or not the trough becomes negatively-tilted as
it pivots over the region Tuesday, but the thinking is leaning
towards its tilt becoming negative given its rapid progression
within the larger-scale, cyclonically-breaking wave envelope.

A High Wind event is forecast to develop Tuesday as this intense
shortwave trough ejects quickly over the southern Great Plains. The
greatest geopotential height falls will be over West Texas, with
indications of 20+ dam/12 hr over a large, geospatial area. Winds
were raised from the NBM with this prognostication, and were aligned
slightly below the NBM 75th percentile, which lies within the middle
of the MEX/ECX/ECM guidance. PoPs generated by the NBM had extended
all the way to the edge Caprock Escarpment, but were trimmed and
confined to the eastern Rolling Plains, as the thinking continues to
lean towards the dry slot and rapid progression of the dryline to
displace rain shower and/or thunder chances to the east of the 100th
meridian. The residence time of any convection will be short-lived
as a mid- and high-level jet streak in excess of 70 kt and near 130
kt, respectively, round the base of the trough. Sustained, westerly
winds between 30-40 mph are forecast. The intensity of these
features, oriented largely orthogonal to the spine of the southern
Rocky Mountains, may generate hydraulic jumps in the flow. Gusts to
or in excess of 60 mph will be possible, and the gust factor was
nudged slightly upward and capped at 55 kt. Blowing dust will
accompany the high winds, and reductions in visibility can be
expected. Furthermore, the combination of the high winds and low
relative humidity will lead to the development of critical fire
weather conditions area-wide. A polar cold front is forecast to move
through the CWA late Tuesday following the passage of the shortwave
trough, and winds will remain blustery into the nighttime hours
before finally diminishing early Wednesday morning. Benign weather
is forecast through the rest of next week as shortwave ridging
returns to the region.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR with steady SW winds today of 10-15 kt today veering to NNE
after midnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Favorable conditions for the growth and spread of wildfires are
forecast Sunday through Tuesday, with Tuesday being the primary day
of concern. The dryline will move across the Caprock and Rolling
Plains this Sunday, with southerly winds increasing during the
morning and veering to the southwest following the passage of the
dryline. Warm temperatures and dewpoints in the middle teens across
the Caprock Escarpment will yield critical fire weather conditions,
with minimum RH values rising to near 30 percent near the 100th
meridian. Southwesterly winds will remain intact Monday, but not as
breezy as Sunday, maintaining the potential for elevated conditions
at a minimum, perhaps reaching critical thresholds near the NM state
line. A High Wind event is forecast to develop Tuesday as an intense
low moves over the region. The combination of sustained, westerly
winds between 30-40 mph, with gusts near or in excess of 60 mph,
amidst low relative humidity, will garner critical fire-weather
conditions area-wide. Extreme fire behavior will be possible. A
strong cold front will move into the forecast area Tuesday evening,
shifting winds to the northwest in its wake, with winds finally
diminishing early Wednesday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...93