Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
778 FXUS64 KLUB 041121 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 621 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 621 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 - Slightly warmer and dry today. - Triple digit high temperatures expected for the majority of the region for the latter half of the week. - Precipitation chances return this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 The possible thunderstorms into early this morning have not come to fruition due in main part to stability from yesterday morning`s MCS and subsequent cooler temperatures. As such, a quiet overnight is expected with mostly clear skies and lows ranging from the low to upper 60s. An upper ridge over the Desert Southwest will slowly track eastward today and provide for a more capped atmosphere. While muggy conditions will continue (dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 60s) east of I-27 due to upsloping SE low-level flow, the aforementioned cap should win out and inhibit much in the way of thunderstorm development. Though non-zero, mentionable (>15%) PoPs have again been left out of the latest forecast. SE winds near 10 mph will persist into Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 No changes to the long term package with triple digit temperatures and dry conditions on track for the work week and storm chances returning by the weekend. An upper high/ridge currently sitting over northern Mexico/southwestern CONUS will build north and east through the week. As the upper high settles over the region, increasing heights will warm temperatures with highs hitting triple digits by Wednesday. Friday looks to be the hottest day of the week with some areas off the Caprock possibly reaching 105. Could possibly see a heat advisory for Friday. Temperatures will slightly cool, although not much, by the weekend as the upper ridging weakens and retrogrades by early next week. Subsidence from the high overhead will keep precipitation chances near zero through the work week. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday and Sunday. Mid- level troughing and southerly surface winds drawing in moisture from the gulf will bring precipitation chances to the far southern Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains the afternoon and evening for both days. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF period with light ESE winds continuing. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...30