355
FXUS64 KLUB 072339
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
539 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 527 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

 - Increased fire danger is expected across western portions of
   the Caprock this afternoon where a Red Flag Warning is in
   effect from 11 AM until 6 PM.

 - Much colder temperatures arrive Sunday and continue into next
   week with a slight chance of light wintry precipitation Monday
   through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Breezy winds will continue through this afternoon but will diminish
this evening. A Red Flag Warning is still in effect for most of the
Caprock until 6 PM. The warm and dry weather is expected to continue
into tomorrow.

No changes to the upper air pattern as zonal flow aloft continues
through the rest of today into tomorrow. The westerly flow that
brought possibly record breaking high temperatures today will keep
the warm trend going tonight with lows in the 40s on the Caprock and
upper 40s to upper 50s off the Caprock. Tomorrow`s high temperatures
are a little tricky. The lee low currently situated over the Central
Plains will move southwestward towards New Mexico by tomorrow
afternoon and will swing a cold front from northeast to southwest
through the region. Guidance currently has the FROPA reaching the
Far Southeast Texas Panhandle by early tomorrow afternoon and should
push through the CWA by tomorrow evening. Therefore, highs
temperatures tomorrow range from upper 60s to mid 80s. Winds in the
morning will be light and from the west. As the FROPA pushes through
the area, winds will ramp up and shift to the northeast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Cold and damp conditions will exist for much of the forecast period
from Sunday and beyond. The pattern will remain relatively unchanged
in the upper levels with west-southwesterly flow prevailing. Surface
winds will remain out of the east to northeast through mid week as
surface high pressure dominates the central CONUS. We will begin to
see light precip enter the forecast by late Sunday night into early
Monday as isentropic upglide increases. Precip mode is rather messy
and mixed as surface temps will be in the upper 20s to low 30s while
above surface temps are expected to be below freezing. While there
will be a warm nose aloft, the saturated layer will be rather
shallow with liquid precip being most likely in the form of drizzle
with freezing precip being mostly in the form of flurries. A second,
stronger front continues to be progged for late Monday into early
Tuesday. Models continue to back off in regards to precip chances
behind this second front. The GFS has become the driest, keeping
most precip along and south of our southern row of counties. This
precip will mostly result from frontal forcing, leading to slightly
heavier precip than what is expected late Sunday and early Monday.
Precip mode, at this time, appears to be mostly liquid rain with a
rain/snow mix being possible across our northern counties. This
precip should exit the FA quickly by the afternoon. The third round
of precip comes ahead of an upper shortwave trough Wednesday. While
the precip mode of this round looks to be of the mixed variety, the
overall pattern is one that usually ends with the FA being dry
slotted, and models do continue to trend drier. At best, our eastern
zones may see a mix of rain/freezing rain/snow. This upper level
system will bring one more front through the FA that will cool
temperatures further. Current projected lows for Thursday morning
are in the teens area wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

VFR should be compromised for a couple hours at CDS starting
around 05Z as IFR stratus and/or fog sneak west, until drier west
winds resume before daybreak. FROPA with gusty NNE winds arrives
first at CDS by late morning, then PVW and LBB later in the
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Red Flag Warning is in effect until 6 PM today due to breezy winds,
warm temperatures, and dry air. Winds will diminish this evening and
remain light through tonight and tomorrow morning before westerly
winds shift to the northeast and ramp up tomorrow afternoon due to a
FROPA. Elevated fire concerns tomorrow for most of the southern
portions of the Southern Plains and Rolling Plains with breezy
winds, warmer temperatures, and minimum RH values >15%. Conditions
are possible for a Rangeland Fire Danger but will leave for the next
forecast package.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>023-027-
028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...93