Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
101 FXUS64 KLUB 241726 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1226 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - Daily thunderstorm chances favor the far southern TX Panhandle beginning tonight. - Short-lived cooldown for Tuesday before the heat resumes Wednesday and Thursday. - Another cooldown by Labor Day weekend with some rain chances. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Light S-SE flow was prevalent this afternoon ahead of lee troughing in eastern New Mexico. Farther north, a warm front with elevated storms was draped NW-SE across western Kansas and through tonight this boundary will descend south as a cold front before reaching our SE Panhandle counties sometime Monday morning - likely aided by convective outflows. Until this front arrives, our northern counties stand a 20-30% chance of convection this evening and overnight. In addition to a few storms potentially surviving their journey southeast from the Sangre de Cristos, a better setup may favor the Childress area where a pool of richer dewpoints will reside. Latest hi-res guidance seems more believable with the front stalling across our northeast zones Monday afternoon before a shortwave trough in NW flow arrives that evening thereby accelerating the front south over the remainder of the forecast area. Unfortunately, PoPs are looking more dismal over all but our far N-NE zones as the center of the H7-H5 highs are proving more stubborn and end up lingering much closer to the South Plains through Tuesday morning. This results in the deepest saturation and best rain chances focusing north of the high across the TX Panhandle where some heavy rain and training of storms appears most likely. NBM is naturally slower to latch onto this drier trend over the last 24-36 hours, so PoPs were nudged lower primarily over the South Plains and Rolling Plains from Monday night through Tuesday. Although still 10 to 15 degrees below normal, NBM`s high temps on Tuesday remain on the milder end of MOS and deterministic runs. This still raises some concerns, yet am inclined to believe these milder numbers given the shallow nature of post-frontal stratus in this setup and how easily this can be eroded in late summer. The NAM often overdoes stratus in these setups so we`ll ignore its wishful thinking of highs only in the 60s in exchange for 70s and 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 The gist of the extended is a return to hotter and drier conditions for Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a longer-lasting cooldown in time for Labor Day weekend. Tuesday night opens with cool surface ridging slowly retreating to our east ahead of lee troughing in New Mexico and Colorado. What originally looked like a decent setup for NW flow and nocturnal storms in our area is now displaced much farther north thanks to the closer proximity of mid-level highs over the Hill Country with a rebound to stronger anticyclonic flow atop our domain. Whittled back NBM`s PoPs a bit for Tuesday night with a preference for slight chances in our far western and northern zones away from said upper ridging. WAA will also be underway from 850-700 mb during this time with the brunt of isentropic ascent progged well north of I40. Thicknesses quickly rebound on Wednesday thanks to 850 mb flow veering southwesterly while advecting milder temps our way. Milder highs from both the NBM and ECM ensembles still look best in this pattern despite conflicting signals from MEX and the GEFS mean. The crystal ball gets murkier for Thursday as model spread has grown regarding a shortwave trough in NW flow over the Central Plains. The ECMWF remains sharper with this wave compared to the GFS and results in a cold front backdooring its way through our area that afternoon complete with deep convection. Opted to leave NBM`s broad PoPs intact from Thursday afternoon through the night as models agree in the upper ridge flattening by this time, but temps for Friday are low confidence as the ECMWF has us in cool post-frontal flow compared to warm southerlies in the GFS. Regardless, increasingly deeper moisture and associated clouds through the weekend should keep temps lower along with additional chances for precip underneath flatter WNW flow. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 VFR with light winds. A stray TS is possible near CDS this evening and overnight before a cold front stalls in the vicinity late Monday morning. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...93