431
FXUS64 KLUB 191114
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
514 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 513 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

 - Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM today for much of the
   Caprock.

 - Extreme Cold Watch for the entire forecast area from Monday
   night through Tuesday morning.

 - Slight chance of light snow and flurries Monday night.

 - Seasonal temperatures return for Wednesday and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Wind chills on the Caprock have reached at or below zero degrees
therefore have issued a Cold Weather Advisory for the Caprock
until 9 AM today. Weather today will be quiet compared to
yesterday as the snow bands cleared the region just after
midnight. Broad upper level troughing remains over CONUS keeping
northwesterly flow aloft which will continue to pump Arctic air
into the region. Although the sun will be shining for majority of
the day, highs will only reach at or below freezing. Winds are
currently light and from the north. A surface ridge will track
east of the CWA swinging the winds to the south by the afternoon.
Lows tonight will be in the teens however some breezy southerly
winds will bring single digit wind chills on the Caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Monday opens with chilly southeasterly surface flow emanating from
an arctic surface ridge nosing all the way to the TX and LA coast.
The parent arctic high of around 1052 mb in southern Saskatchewan
by daybreak Monday will be of particular interest to us as this
high morphs our way on the heels of a large positively-tilted
trough bisecting the CONUS. Besides the nippy southeast winds
already mentioned on Monday, a plume of mid-level clouds will be
creeping south through the day ahead of the upper trough which
will further aid in keeping highs below freezing for all but a few
locales. In concert with a 130 knot upper jet, ascent fields ramp
up Monday afternoon and overnight complete with another arctic
FROPA arriving around sunset. Mixing ratios are shaping up less
than last night`s light snow event, but can`t rule out some minor
accumulations mainly in our NW counties before the DGZ layer dries
out slowly from N-S through early Tuesday. Thicknesses and 850 mb
temps crater by sunrise and are shaping up even lower than today
and tomorrow`s values which raises concerns for wind chills
getting close to or hitting Extreme Cold thresholds (5 below
south and 10 below elsewhere). Recent GFS has finally come around
to our colder strategy employed for the past several days, so
confidence has improved in wind chills of -5 to -12 for much of
the area which justifies an Extreme Cold Watch for Monday night
and Tuesday morning.

The surface ridge quickly peels away to our south on Tuesday
afternoon spurring light downslope winds in its wake. Although
cooler than its earlier runs, the GFS and NBM remain too bullish
in eroding the arctic air on Tuesday while boosting westerly
winds to 15+ mph during the afternoon which also seems unlikely.
Opted to keep undercutting the NBM with its colder derivatives
until Wednesday when lee troughing and improved low-level
westerlies finally win out and push highs closer to normal. A
weak, but swift-moving cold front now scheduled for Wednesday
afternoon should keep highs coolest in our Panhandle counties,
but this looks to be the last cool intrusion for a while as we
transition to a deamplified pattern with milder temps under semi-
zonal flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

VFR conditions to prevail at all TAF sites. Winds are currently
light and from the north but will shift from the south and become
slightly breezy by this afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ021>023-
027>029-033>035-039>041.

Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
for TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10