Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
892 FXUS64 KLUB 101304 CCA AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 804 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 612 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 - Thunderstorms are possible across the entire area today through Tuesday, mainly in the evenings. - Cooler temperatures Monday through Wednesday, with near-average highs returning thereafter. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Overnight will generally see a repeat of the previous two nights with mostly cloudy skies and SW winds of 10-15 mph keeping lows mild ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Hot and dry conditions are expected through this afternoon. Although with a moderately potent mid-level trough approaching this evening breaking down the upper ridge stalled over the Desert Southwest for the past several days, highs will top out a few degrees lower than yesterday. This trough and its associated cold front will begin to track from northwest to southeast across the area through the overnight hours and bring chances of showers and thunderstorms. Highest chances will occur over the far SW Panhandle and northern South Plains. Given the monsoonal component to the moisture and subsequent higher PWATs near 1.5 inches, some of the storms may produce locally heavy rain/flooding as well as strong winds. These should diminish in coverage and intensity by sunrise Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Temperatures Monday will be much cooler post-frontal in a light southeasterly surface flow. Highs will be around 10 degrees cooler than today. This upslope flow will combine with an upper trough and lead to the development of more pop-up showers and thunderstorms over the entire area rather than the NW-SE moving ones along the front as with the previous night. Widespread severe weather is not expected, however storms will be relatively slow moving, so localized heavy rain/flooding remains a threat along with strong winds. These will gradually diminish into Tuesday morning. Daytime highs Tuesday will be similar to that of Monday with light SE winds. While moisture remains present over the area during the evening, the forcing components lacking any notable upper waves or shear will inhibit any widespread storm development, with only slight chance PoPs retained in the latest forecast. An upper ridge will build starting Wednesday, however it will not be as strong as the recent ridge over the Desert Southwest and high temperatures will be closer to seasonal averages generally in the mid 90s. A series of shortwaves Friday and Saturday may lead to some additional shower and thunderstorm chances for northwestern portions of the area, but much of the region should remain dry beyond mid-week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. However, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected late Sunday afternoon into the evening. This activity will have the potential to affect the terminals especially KLBB and KPVW. At the moment, coverage is too uncertain to mention in the TAF. Lastly, a cold front is expected to move through the area early Monday morning shifting winds to the east. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...01