Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
008 FXUS64 KLUB 280531 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1131 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1120 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 - Seasonal normal temperatures across the region and storm chances over southeastern Rolling Plains expected today. - A strong cold front will bring breezy conditions to the region Saturday, followed by notably colder weather Sunday into Monday. - Dry weather is expected across the forecast area this weekend into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1120 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Should be a breezy and mostly cloudy Friday. Current satellite imagery shows low clouds have already begun to fill in across portions of the region and is expected to continue through early this morning. Patchy fog will also be possible over portions of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains beginning around 3 AM, however is expected to dissipate just before sunrise. Light southwesterly winds this morning will give way to breezy southerly winds this afternoon in response to the tightening of the pressure gradient as a lee surface trough develops over Colorado. Stratiform clouds will linger through much of the day, however is expected to clear just west of the I-27 corridor later in the afternoon. This will give cooler highs in the upper 50s along and east of the I-27 corridor and slightly warmer highs in the lower 60s to the west. Breezy southerly winds will bring efficient WAA and elevated CAPE resulting in shower and thunderstorm chances over southeastern portions of the Rolling Plains this evening. NBM has backed off on precipitation chances for our region compared to previous forecasts with models keeping most storm activity to the south and east of our CWA, however keeps a sliver of slight chance PoPs over southeastern Rolling Plains. Lingering stratiform clouds will continue into the night, but are expected to clear out early Saturday morning as surface flow veers to the west ahead of an approaching cold front. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1120 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 After a period of pleasant weather over much of the past week, a much colder period will begin on Saturday and persist through at least the middle of next week. This will come as a result of a general amplification of the upper air pattern over the northern half of the continent with several progressive shortwave disturbances set to track over the CONUS. The first of these will pass over the MO Valley on Saturday, sending a strong (but dry) cold front southward through the southern plains which is set to pass through West TX by Saturday afternoon. After an initially mild morning and midday period driven by westerly surface flow and compressional warming, much colder and breezier conditions will arrive behind the front Saturday afternoon and evening with temperatures set to fall into the teens to low 20s overnight into early Sunday morning. The cold airmass will be locked firmly in place for the rest of the weekend, with a persistent easterly component to the surface flow and at least some low cloud cover keeping highs on Sunday afternoon in the upper 30s to low 40s. On Monday, a second and slightly stronger shortwave disturbance will dive southeastward over the Rockies and eventually exit over the plains states, which will send a more modest reinforcing cold front through our region. Temperatures will warm slightly compared to Sunday but will still be well below normal with highs currently likely to stay in the 40s across the forecast area. Although the trough axis will pass over the TX/OK Panhandles, models continue to trend drier with both the near surface and midlevel airmass. Consequently, it appears that it will simply be too dry for anything more than a very brief snow flurry over the southern TX Panhandle on Monday, and PoPs are now below mentionable levels across the entire forecast area. Tuesday through the midweek period, most models advertise a continuation of a relatively progressive pattern of shortwaves within cyclonic flow aloft over the CONUS. This generally points to an up-and-down fluctuation of temperatures day to day, with relatively warm conditions returning for Tuesday and Wednesday with another cold front likely thereafter. Moisture will still be very limited throughout the entire depth of the atmosphere, and precipitation chances remain near zero through the middle of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 MVFR ceiling have filled in over KLBB and KPVW and are expected to expand to KCDS in the next couple of hours. These low clouds are expected to prevail at all three sites through this TAF period. Light southwesterly winds overnight will give way to breezy southerly winds through the afternoon before slightly weakening through the evening. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...10