Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
686
FNUS73 KLSX 172301
FWSLSX
Spot Forecast for Warren...Mark Twain National Forest
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
601 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 CDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Breezy southerly winds will continue through the night and also
throughout the day tomorrow, although gusts speeds are expected
to weaken slightly during the overnight period. Humidity is
expected to rise overnight as temperatures drop as well, but no
precipitation is expected.
During the day tomorrow, similar levels of humidity can be
expected as was observed today, with continued gusty winds. Wind
gust speeds may be slightly lower than today`s speeds overall,
but will likely be similar as well. Meanwhile, mixing heights are
expected to rise to around 4000 to 5000 feet tomorrow afternoon,
with moderate instability developing as well. This should promote
efficient ventilation.
By early tomorrow evening, showers and a few thunderstorms are
likely to approach the area, with best chances for widespread
wetting rain occurring overnight tomorrow throughout Saturday.
Wetting rain is likely, with significant soaking rain possible as
well. A cold front will also move into the area overnight Friday
and Saturday morning, and will likely stall in the vicinity of
this site. As such, winds are expected to weaken overall, but the
wind direction will likely be variable and strong gusts will
remain possible within any thunderstorms that directly impact the
site. In addition, lightning, hail, and localized flooding will
be possible with these storms.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-50 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........73 at forecast start...Min 64.
RH..................54 percent at forecast start...Max 78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph to start.
Decreasing to 8 to 12 mph with gusts to around 20 mph by midnight.
Eye level winds.....South winds 4 to 8 mph with gusts to around 15 mph to start.
Decreasing to 3 to 6 mph with gusts to around 10 mph by midnight.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL at forecast start...otherwise min
500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 24 to 33 mph decreasing to 21 to 23 mph
in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /14830 m/s-m/ at forecast start.
Min...poor /1570 m/s-m/.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........38 30 32 51 71 61
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............73 70 67 67 66 65
RH..............54 60 68 68 73 75
20 ft wind......S 11 S 11 S 11 S 12 S 12 S 8
20 ft wind gust.25 24 23 23 23 22
Eye level wind..S 5 S 5 S 5 S 6 S 6 S 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.12 11 10 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.3 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6
Transport wind..S 33 S 24 S 22 S 22 S 23 SW 22
Vrate kt-ft/1K..94 14 15 14 10 12
Ventrate Cat....GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Temperature.........Max 82.
RH..................Min 45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 11 mph with gusts to around 24
mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms early eveining.
Eye level winds.....South winds 3 to 6 mph with gusts to around 12
mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms early eveining.
Mixing height.......Max 4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 23 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2060 m/s-m) early in the morning
increasing to excellent max (16730 m/s-m) in
the afternoon.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely in the evening and overnight.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Temperature.........Min 59.
RH..................Max 99 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 8 mph with gusts to around 18
mph in the evening and overnight becoming
light and variable. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms.
Eye level winds.....South winds 2 to 4 mph with gusts to around 9
mph in the evening and overnight, becoming
light and variable. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......Min 600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph decreasing to 13 to 14
mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (9880 m/s-m) early in the evening
decreasing to poor min (1380 m/s-m) late in the
night.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers and chance
of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Temperature.........Max 70.
RH..................Min 66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable wind direction 4 to 6 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Eye level winds.....Variable wind direction 2 to 3 mph with gusts to 6 mph.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......Max 1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 12 mph shifting to the northwest
around 10 mph early in the morning, then
shifting to the northeast 10 to 12 mph late in
the morning shifting to the southeast around 13
mph in the afternoon shifting to the south.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1010 m/s-m).
$$
Forecaster...19
Requested by...Roman Watson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2510946.0/LSX
.DELDT 04/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0