Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
080
FGUS73 KLSX 261656
ESFLSX
Probabalistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1156 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 09/30/2024 - 12/29/2024
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
LOCATION Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ---- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
...Missouri River
Jefferson City 23.0 25.0 30.0 19 25 14 24 <5 20
Chamois 17.0 28.0 31.0 26 37 <5 5 <5 <5
Hermann 21.0 26.0 33.0 25 34 9 22 <5 6
Washington 20.0 28.0 31.0 22 28 <5 6 <5 <5
St. Charles 25.0 30.0 36.0 23 30 7 16 <5 <5
...Mississippi River
Canton 15.0 20.0 25.0 <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
LaGrange 17.0 23.0 25.0 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
Quincy 19.0 22.0 26.0 <5 9 <5 7 <5 <5
Lock & Dam 21 18.0 21.0 25.0 <5 8 <5 7 <5 <5
Hannibal 17.0 22.0 24.0 <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
Saverton 16.0 20.0 24.0 <5 12 <5 8 <5 <5
Louisiana 15.0 20.0 25.0 9 19 <5 7 <5 <5
Clarksville 25.0 31.0 33.0 9 19 <5 6 <5 <5
Winfield 26.0 30.0 34.0 <5 15 <5 8 <5 <5
Grafton 20.0 24.0 29.0 6 15 <5 5 <5 <5
Alton 21.0 24.0 31.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mel Price LD 21.0 29.0 34.0 14 20 <5 8 <5 <5
St. Louis 30.0 35.0 40.0 7 18 5 10 <5 <5
Herculaneum 26.0 32.0 37.0 13 19 6 11 <5 5
Chester 27.0 35.0 40.0 15 22 7 15 <5 6
...North Fabius River
Ewing 11.0 17.0 20.0 22 30 <5 <5 <5 <5
...Middle Fabius River
Ewing 12.0 17.0 20.0 21 28 <5 8 <5 <5
...South Fabius River
Taylor 10.0 14.0 19.0 21 28 <5 15 <5 <5
...North River
Palmyra 13.0 16.0 22.0 8 15 <5 7 <5 <5
...Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 17.0 22.0 26.0 19 22 <5 <5 <5 <5
...Salt River
New London 19.0 25.0 27.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
...Cuivre River
Troy 21.0 25.0 29.0 30 21 8 8 <5 <5
Old Monroe 24.0 27.0 30.0 8 13 6 10 <5 <5
...Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 18.0 20.0 23.0 38 25 24 16 10 7
...Meramec River
Steelville 12.0 20.0 25.0 32 18 <5 <5 <5 <5
Sullivan 11.0 20.0 29.0 47 24 8 7 <5 <5
Pacific 15.0 23.0 27.0 30 15 6 6 <5 <5
Eureka 19.0 26.0 31.0 28 17 10 8 6 7
Valley Park 18.0 21.0 27.0 26 13 16 13 9 11
Fenton 23.0 29.0 32.0 24 16 8 11 <5 <5
Arnold 24.0 35.0 38.0 23 24 6 6 <5 <5
...Bourbeuse River
Union 15.0 22.0 26.0 30 20 8 6 <5 <5
...Big River
Byrnesville 16.0 20.0 28.0 27 21 16 12 <5 <5
...Moreau River
Jefferson City 17.0 25.0 29.0 57 40 34 25 15 11
...Maries River
Westphalia 10.0 15.0 20.0 22 19 12 9 <5 <5
...Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 20.0 25.0 30.0 29 19 17 13 <5 <5
...Hinkson Creek
Columbia 15.0 18.0 20.0 23 19 13 11 5 5
...Osage River
St. Thomas 23.0 30.0 35.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mari-Osa Campground 19.0 22.0 25.0 12 26 7 12 <5 5
...La Moine River
Ripley 22.0 23.0 27.0 10 17 8 15 <5 <5
...Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 24.0 26.0 45 43 20 18 12 13
Carlyle 16.5 23.0 27.0 41 34 <5 <5 <5 <5
New Athens 79.0 82.0 85.0 28 21 19 11 7 8
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 09/30/2024 - 12/29/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
...Missouri River
Jefferson City 7.3 8.0 9.3 14.1 17.9 26.0 29.1
Chamois 4.1 4.9 7.3 10.8 17.9 22.3 25.7
Hermann 7.7 7.8 10.7 14.0 20.9 25.1 30.0
Washington 5.3 5.5 8.2 10.9 17.6 21.6 25.3
St. Charles 12.8 13.2 15.6 18.2 23.9 27.3 31.1
...Mississippi River
Canton 3.8 3.8 4.6 6.2 8.7 10.5 13.3
LaGrange 4.7 4.7 5.5 7.1 9.6 11.4 14.2
Quincy 11.5 11.5 11.8 12.3 12.8 14.2 16.3
Lock & Dam 21 4.4 4.4 5.3 6.9 9.4 12.2 15.2
Hannibal 10.0 10.0 10.4 11.2 12.2 14.3 15.9
Saverton 5.2 5.2 6.2 7.6 9.3 12.7 15.3
Louisiana 11.9 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.1 13.5 15.6
Clarksville 14.8 14.9 16.1 17.7 19.7 23.2 25.7
Winfield 14.6 14.7 15.9 17.5 19.6 23.5 25.9
Grafton 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.5 16.6 21.6
Alton 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4
Mel Price LD 5.5 5.8 6.5 9.3 15.4 22.2 27.3
St. Louis 3.5 4.2 6.8 10.6 20.5 29.5 35.9
Herculaneum 1.1 1.9 4.7 8.7 18.6 27.3 33.7
Chester 7.6 9.2 10.7 17.3 21.9 33.0 37.8
...North Fabius River
Ewing 3.5 3.7 5.0 6.5 10.3 12.8 15.7
...Middle Fabius River
Ewing 3.0 3.1 3.9 5.9 10.5 13.6 15.3
...South Fabius River
Taylor 2.4 2.5 3.6 5.1 8.2 12.6 13.8
...North River
Palmyra 3.9 4.0 4.8 5.5 8.6 12.6 14.1
...Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 4.9 5.9 8.1 10.8 16.2 18.7 19.3
...Salt River
New London 2.3 2.4 3.0 4.2 8.5 9.6 11.4
...Cuivre River
Troy 7.1 9.0 11.0 15.0 22.0 24.4 27.3
Old Monroe 10.5 10.7 12.4 14.9 17.7 22.5 28.0
...Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 9.0 10.0 12.8 16.0 19.9 23.0 24.0
...Meramec River
Steelville 2.4 2.9 5.2 8.6 14.0 16.6 18.8
Sullivan 4.5 4.7 7.1 10.2 15.5 19.6 24.3
Pacific 0.3 2.1 5.2 9.9 15.8 20.6 24.6
Eureka 4.4 6.1 8.5 12.1 19.6 25.9 34.0
Valley Park 0.5 2.1 5.5 9.2 18.5 24.9 30.5
Fenton 5.0 6.5 9.7 13.6 22.7 27.0 30.2
Arnold 8.7 9.5 11.6 16.7 22.8 30.5 35.8
...Bourbeuse River
Union 4.6 5.2 7.6 11.0 15.6 21.6 23.8
...Big River
Byrnesville 4.8 4.8 7.4 11.6 17.1 22.0 25.6
...Moreau River
Jefferson City 5.1 5.1 8.2 20.1 26.9 33.8 36.0
...Hinkson Creek
Columbia 4.5 5.2 6.7 11.0 14.0 19.0 20.0
...Maries River
Westphalia 2.6 2.6 3.3 7.0 9.4 15.6 17.3
...Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 10.8 10.8 10.8 16.6 22.1 26.4 28.1
...Osage River
St. Thomas 2.8 3.0 5.9 9.2 11.8 13.2 15.4
Mari-Osa Campground 3.8 4.2 6.4 10.2 16.5 19.1 23.4
...La Moine River
Ripley 5.3 6.9 8.8 11.4 17.0 22.3 25.1
...Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 10.0 10.3 12.7 16.8 23.1 26.5 27.0
Carlyle 13.8 13.8 14.2 15.7 19.4 21.2 21.9
New Athens 70.2 70.5 71.4 74.7 79.5 83.7 86.3
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 09/30/2024 - 12/29/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
...Missouri River
Jefferson City 4.4 3.9 1.7 0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0
Chamois 1.9 1.0 -0.3 -1.9 -3.1 -3.4 -3.5
Hermann 4.9 4.4 3.0 1.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.6
Washington 2.8 2.5 1.1 -0.4 -1.6 -2.1 -2.3
St. Charles 10.3 10.0 8.3 6.8 5.6 5.1 4.9
...Mississippi River
Canton 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4
LaGrange 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3
Quincy 11.1 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9
Lock & Dam 21 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.8
Hannibal 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.6
Saverton 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0
Louisiana 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8
Clarksville 14.4 14.1 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.4 13.3
Winfield 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.3 13.2 13.2
Grafton 14.8 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.5
Alton 19.3 19.2 19.1 18.9 18.5 16.0 14.6
Mel Price LD 4.6 4.5 3.6 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.4
St. Louis 1.7 1.1 -0.4 -1.4 -2.2 -3.4 -3.8
Herculaneum -0.9 -1.5 -3.3 -4.5 -5.4 -6.9 -7.3
Chester 5.6 5.1 3.2 2.6 1.7 0.3 0.0
...North Fabius River
Ewing 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7
...Middle Fabius River
Ewing 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5
...South Fabius River
Taylor 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3
...North River
Palmyra 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4
...Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
...Salt River
New London 4.9 4.6 3.6 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.2
...Cuivre River
Troy 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2
Old Monroe 9.9 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.3
...Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
...Meramec River
Steelville 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0
Sullivan 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5
Pacific -1.0 -1.1 -1.4 -1.6 -1.8 -2.0 -2.0
Eureka 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5
Valley Park -1.9 -2.5 -3.0 -3.3 -3.6 -3.9 -3.9
Fenton 2.6 2.0 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.5
Arnold 7.4 7.1 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.0
...Bourbeuse River
Union 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5
...Big River
Byrnesville 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2
...Moreau River
Jefferson City 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5
...Hinkson Creek
Columbia 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.4
...Maries River
Westphalia 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2
...Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.9
...Osage River
St. Thomas 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
...La Moine River
Ripley 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3
...Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2
Carlyle 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
New Athens 68.6 68.6 68.5 68.5 68.5 68.5 68.5
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued the last week of October.
Fuchs