Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Versions:
1
2
619 FGUS73 KLSX 041336 ESFLSX ILC001-009-013-027-051-149-MOC051-053-071-073-099-111-113-127- 137-151-163-173-183-189-221-062359- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST. LOUIS MO 0835 AM CDT Tue Sep 04 2024 In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 08/26/2024 - 11/24/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Mississippi River Canton 15.0 20.0 25.0 : 11 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 LaGrange 17.0 23.0 25.0 : 10 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 Quincy 19.0 22.0 26.0 : 10 11 <5 7 <5 <5 Lock & Dam 21 18.0 21.0 25.0 : 10 11 <5 7 <5 <5 Hannibal 17.0 22.0 24.0 : 15 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 Saverton 16.0 20.0 24.0 : 18 16 5 8 <5 <5 Louisiana 15.0 20.0 25.0 : 23 22 <5 7 <5 <5 Clarksville 25.0 31.0 33.0 : 23 22 <5 6 <5 <5 Winfield 26.0 30.0 34.0 : 19 19 5 8 <5 <5 Grafton 20.0 24.0 29.0 : 7 19 <5 <5 <5 <5 Alton 21.0 24.0 31.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mel Price LD 21.0 29.0 34.0 : 18 25 6 9 <5 <5 St. Louis 30.0 35.0 40.0 : 12 18 8 12 <5 <5 Herculaneum 26.0 32.0 37.0 : 16 20 8 12 <5 <5 Chester 27.0 35.0 40.0 : 22 33 13 16 <5 6 :North Fabius River Ewing 11.0 17.0 20.0 : 25 30 9 10 <5 <5 :Middle Fabius River Ewing 12.0 17.0 20.0 : 25 30 12 14 <5 7 :South Fabius River Taylor 10.0 14.0 19.0 : 25 28 13 16 <5 <5 :North River Palmyra 13.0 16.0 22.0 : 16 17 7 14 <5 <5 :Mid Fork Salt River Holliday 17.0 22.0 26.0 : 23 22 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Salt River New London 19.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cuivre River Troy 21.0 25.0 29.0 : 24 26 9 11 <5 <5 Old Monroe 24.0 27.0 30.0 : 20 20 9 11 <5 <5 :Dardenne Creek St. Peters 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 17 16 12 13 6 6 :Meramec River Steelville 12.0 20.0 25.0 : 12 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 Sullivan 11.0 20.0 29.0 : 17 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Bourbeuse River Union 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 17 14 7 7 <5 <5 :Meramec River Pacific 15.0 23.0 27.0 : 12 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Big River Byrnesville 16.0 20.0 28.0 : 14 13 8 8 <5 <5 :Meramec River Eureka 19.0 26.0 31.0 : 12 11 6 5 <5 <5 Valley Park 18.0 21.0 27.0 : 16 13 12 11 8 8 Fenton 23.0 29.0 32.0 : 17 15 7 8 <5 <5 Arnold 24.0 35.0 38.0 : 23 28 <5 9 <5 <5 :Kaskaskia River Vandalia 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 21 19 6 8 <5 <5 Carlyle 16.5 23.0 27.0 : 7 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 New Athens 79.0 82.0 85.0 : 12 14 10 7 <5 <5 :La Moine River Ripley 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 18 19 14 16 7 8 :Moreau River Jefferson City 17.0 25.0 29.0 : 42 42 33 28 16 17 :Hinkson Creek Columbia 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 33 35 19 20 11 11 :Maries River Westphalia 10.0 15.0 20.0 : 26 30 11 12 <5 <5 :Gasconade River Rich Fountain 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 17 18 9 16 <5 6 :Missouri River Jefferson City 23.0 25.0 30.0 : 20 36 18 28 11 18 :Osage River St. Thomas 23.0 30.0 35.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mari-Osa Campgrou 19.0 22.0 25.0 : 18 26 11 12 6 9 :Missouri River Chamois 17.0 28.0 31.0 : 34 44 <5 8 <5 <5 Hermann 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 28 44 18 19 7 8 Washington 20.0 28.0 31.0 : 19 37 7 9 <5 7 St. Charles 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 19 38 11 16 <5 7 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 08/26/2024 - 11/24/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Mississippi River Canton 6.3 6.3 6.3 9.6 13.3 16.0 18.1 LaGrange 7.2 7.2 7.2 10.5 14.2 16.9 19.0 Quincy 12.3 12.3 12.3 13.1 16.2 19.1 21.9 Lock & Dam 21 6.8 6.8 6.8 10.6 15.1 17.9 20.6 Hannibal 11.0 11.0 11.0 12.8 15.5 18.2 20.2 Saverton 7.4 7.4 7.4 10.4 14.6 18.3 20.5 Louisiana 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.1 14.8 18.1 19.9 Clarksville 17.4 17.4 17.5 20.4 24.8 28.6 30.5 Winfield 17.2 17.2 17.3 20.4 24.8 28.7 30.5 Grafton 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.5 16.2 19.8 21.4 Alton 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 Mel Price LD 7.1 7.1 8.5 12.2 18.9 23.4 29.1 St. Louis 5.8 6.3 8.8 14.8 25.3 31.6 36.6 Herculaneum 3.6 4.2 6.9 12.9 23.2 29.3 34.2 Chester 10.4 10.6 12.9 19.4 26.4 35.6 37.6 :North Fabius River Ewing 3.4 3.8 5.0 7.2 11.0 16.8 17.8 :Middle Fabius River Ewing 2.9 3.2 3.6 5.2 11.8 17.8 18.8 :South Fabius River Taylor 2.2 2.6 3.6 5.1 9.9 15.5 16.9 :North River Palmyra 3.9 4.0 4.6 5.4 9.5 15.4 18.2 :Mid Fork Salt River Holliday 4.6 5.3 6.6 10.0 16.2 20.5 21.9 :Salt River New London 2.3 2.4 3.0 6.4 9.3 11.1 13.0 :Cuivre River Troy 5.8 6.0 7.2 10.0 20.8 24.8 28.2 Old Monroe 13.3 13.3 13.3 17.0 20.1 26.5 28.5 :Dardenne Creek St. Peters 2.0 3.4 7.6 10.6 15.6 21.5 23.3 :Meramec River Steelville 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.5 7.2 13.3 14.9 Sullivan 3.0 3.1 3.6 5.2 8.9 15.3 18.1 :Bourbeuse River Union 3.0 3.0 3.3 6.9 11.0 21.5 22.5 :Big River Byrnesville 2.0 2.7 3.5 5.6 11.0 17.5 23.0 :Meramec River Eureka 3.2 3.3 3.9 7.0 11.6 21.2 28.1 Fenton 1.7 1.8 4.9 11.3 18.1 25.7 30.0 Arnold 6.7 7.1 8.9 15.8 22.9 33.7 34.6 :Kaskaskia River Vandalia 9.8 9.9 10.0 12.2 16.4 23.7 24.7 Carlyle 5.5 5.5 11.8 12.5 14.8 16.2 17.2 New Athens 68.6 68.8 69.0 70.1 74.5 82.4 84.8 :La Moine River Ripley 5.0 5.3 8.1 11.2 19.9 26.4 27.3 :Missouri River Jefferson City 6.9 8.2 11.9 16.1 20.7 30.3 31.8 :Osage River St. Thomas 4.3 4.3 4.5 8.5 12.4 14.2 19.7 Mari-Osa Campgrou 3.4 4.5 7.2 11.9 16.5 22.1 25.4 :Missouri River Chamois 3.7 4.3 8.3 12.6 18.4 25.4 27.1 Hermann 5.9 7.2 10.7 15.3 22.3 29.2 33.6 Washington 3.5 4.6 7.8 12.1 17.9 24.6 28.5 St. Charles 11.1 12.2 15.3 19.1 23.6 30.4 34.6 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 08/26/2024 - 11/24/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Mississippi River Canton 4.8 4.1 3.6 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.4 LaGrange 5.7 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.3 Quincy 11.8 11.6 11.3 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 Lock & Dam 21 5.3 4.7 4.2 3.7 3.3 3.1 2.9 Hannibal 10.4 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.6 Saverton 6.1 5.5 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.0 Louisiana 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 Clarksville 16.1 15.2 14.7 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.4 Winfield 15.9 15.0 14.5 13.9 13.7 13.4 13.2 Grafton 15.0 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.5 Alton 19.1 19.1 19.0 18.6 16.4 14.3 14.3 Mel Price LD 6.1 4.8 4.5 4.1 3.7 3.0 2.9 Chester 8.3 7.1 5.7 4.9 4.0 3.3 2.7 :North Fabius River Ewing 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 :Middle Fabius River Ewing 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 :South Fabius River Taylor 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 :North River Palmyra 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 :Mid Fork Salt River Holliday 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 :Salt River New London 5.0 4.9 3.8 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.2 :Cuivre River Troy 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 Old Monroe 11.8 10.7 10.2 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.4 :Dardenne Creek St. Peters 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 :Meramec River Steelville 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 Sullivan 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 :Bourbeuse River Union 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 :Big River Byrnesville 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 :Meramec River Eureka 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 Fenton 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 Arnold 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.0 5.9 :Kaskaskia River Vandalia 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 Carlyle 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 New Athens 68.5 68.5 68.5 68.5 68.5 68.5 68.5 :La Moine River Ripley 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 :Missouri River Jefferson City 6.0 5.7 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.1 3.9 :Osage River St. Thomas 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.9 :Missouri River Chamois 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.6 Hermann 5.1 5.0 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.2 Washington 2.8 2.6 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 St. Charles 10.3 10.1 9.5 8.9 8.7 8.6 8.4 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued by the end of the month. $$ Fuchs