839
FXUS63 KLSX 052350
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
650 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring much cooler weather across the region through
  Monday. However, a slow return to above average temperatures is
  expected through the work week.

- Gusty winds and low humidity will lead to more widespread
  elevated fire danger on Sunday, mainly in open grasslands and
  agricultural fields. This will be highly dependent on local fuel
  conditions.

- There is very little potential for precipitation over the next
  week.



&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Sunday Night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Upper level trough centered over Manitoba will continue to slide
east and deepen through early next week. In the meantime, a cold
front associated with the system will slide southeast across the
area beginning late tonight. The main energy as well as showers and
storms will stay well north of the forecast area, so it will be a
dry frontal passage. As for cold air advection on back side of the
system, it will lag behind the front by several hours. So on Sunday
despite northwest winds, temperatures will warm up around 5 to 10
degrees above normal, especially south of I-70. Then temperatures
will begin to drop late in the afternoon. On another note, much
drier air will filter in behind the front, so this combined with
breezy winds from the northwest, will create elevated fire danger
across portions of the area once again. See the Fire Weather
discussion for more information on this.

Sunday night will be much colder with lows a bit below normal, in
the low 40s to low 50s.

Byrd
&&

.LONG TERM...  (Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Beginning of the work week will start off rather chilly as a surface
ridge builds overhead. Despite sunny skies, temperatures will only
warm up into the upper 60s to low 70s on Monday, which is actually
near normal for this time of year.

In the meantime, an upper level ridge over the western CONUS will
begin to shift eastward with low level flow becoming southerly once
again. Temperatures will slowly moderate with highs well above
normal by late in the work week and into next weekend.

Otherwise, dry weather will persist through next weekend. This is
mainly due to the cold front stalling out along the Gulf Coast
region by Monday, keeping the gulf moisture contained well to our
south. So as the newly developed tropical storm Milton just off the
east coast of Mexico strengthens, the stalled cold front will
steer the system east, eventually crossing Florida possibly as
early as Wednesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Flight conditions will remain VFR at all local terminals for the
entire forecast period. Ahead of an approaching cold front, a
southwesterly low-level jet will lead to LLWS at KUIN from
05z-08z. The dry cold frontal passage overnight will lead to a
wind shift from a southerly to northwest direction with winds
becoming gusty again tomorrow with daytime mixing.

Peine/Glass

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Locally elevated fire weather conditions will persist across
portions of northeast Missouri and west central Illinois this
afternoon. However, better chances of widespread elevated fire
danger on Sunday.

Conditions will improve late this afternoon as winds diminish a bit
and relative humidity rises.

Then focus shifts to tomorrow. Despite a cold front moving through
beginning late tonight and winds shifting to the northwest, drier
air moves in so will see relative humidity drop to between 20 and 25
percent across the entire forecast area by Sunday afternoon. This
combined with gusty northwest winds, will lead to more widespread
elevated fire danger, mainly in open grasslands and agricultural
fields.  As far as fuel moisture is concerned, it will be variable
due to the rain that we got from the remnants from Helene last week.
Areas north of I-70 have not seen as much rain, so this would be the
area with the best threat of erratic fire development, especially
since there was full sun today and hot conditions that likely dried
the fine and dead fuels.

Byrd


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Daily record highs for Saturday Oct 5

KSTL: 92 in 1938
KCOU: 94 in 1937
KUIN: 89 in 1938


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX