153
FSUS46 KLOX 210119
QPSLOX

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
513 PM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

Precipitation forecasts in inches are provided in 3-hour
increments until 0400 followed by 6-hour increments until 1600.
Thunderstorm chances cover up to 1600 on day 1 only.

Light rainfall amounts greater than zero but less than a tenth of an
inch are shown as lgt.

The discussion covers the period from: Thu Nov 20 2025 through Wed Nov 26 2025.

&&

                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

San Luis Obispo County...

LSRC1:Cambria                          lgt    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
SMRC1:Santa Margarita                  lgt    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
NIPC1:Lopez Lake                       lgt    0.0    lgt    0.0   |   0.0   0.0

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.01-0.10        0.01-0.10
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: <5%              <5%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 0800-1400

Chance of Thunderstorms: 20%
Isolated rates around 0.25 in/hr possible near thunderstorms.

&&                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

Santa Barbara County...

SIYC1:Santa Maria                      lgt    0.0    lgt    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
SBTC1:Santa Barbara Potrero            lgt    lgt    lgt    0.0   |   lgt   0.0
GBRC1:Gibraltar Dam                    lgt    lgt    lgt    0.0   |   lgt   0.0
SMCC1:San Marcos Pass                  lgt    lgt    lgt    0.0   |   lgt   0.0
SBFC1:Santa Barbara City               lgt    lgt    lgt    0.0   |   lgt   lgt

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.05-0.15        0.10-0.20
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: <5%              10%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 1100-1500

Chance of Thunderstorms: 20%
Isolated rates around 0.5 in/hr possible near thunderstorms.

&&                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

Ventura County...

FGWC1:Fagan Canyon                     0.1    lgt    lgt    0.0   |   lgt   lgt
HRCC1:Hopper Canyon                    0.2    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   0.1   lgt
MTDC1:Matilija Dam                     lgt    lgt    lgt    0.0   |   lgt   lgt
VTUC1:Ventura City                     lgt    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   lgt
MORC1:Moorpark                         0.2    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   lgt
CRXC1:Circle X Ranch                   0.2    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   0.1   lgt

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.05-0.15        0.10-0.20
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: <5%              20%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 1400-1700

Chance of Thunderstorms: 20%
Isolated rates around 0.25 in/hr possible near thunderstorms.

&&                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

Los Angeles County...

WFKC1:West Fork Heliport               0.3    0.2    0.3    0.1   |   0.2   lgt
BDDC1:Big Dalton Dam                   0.3    0.2    0.3    lgt   |   0.1   lgt
PCDC1:Pacoima Dam                      0.3    0.2    0.2    lgt   |   lgt   lgt
FLTC1:La Canada Flintridge             0.3    0.1    0.2    lgt   |   lgt   lgt
SAUC1:Saugus                           0.2    lgt    0.1    lgt   |   lgt   lgt
CQT:Downtown LA                        0.3    0.1    0.1    lgt   |   lgt   lgt
MLUC1:Malibu Big Rock Mesa             0.3    0.1    lgt    lgt   |   0.2   lgt

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.10-0.20        0.10-0.30
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: <5%              35%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 1400-2300

Chance of Thunderstorms: 20%
Isolated rates around 0.5 in/hr possible near thunderstorms.

&&

DISCUSSION:

Rain continues to move over the region this evening. Fairly
confident that San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties
will have lighter totals through remainder of tonight, but for Los
Angeles and Ventura Counties, the most likely outcome is for light
to moderate amounts (0.75 to 1.25 inches except 1 to 2 inches in
favored mountains and hills) and rates (0.20 to 0.40 inches per
hour). The convective and dynamic nature of the proximity
of the low brings the potential of localized higher totals and
rates, especially in Los Angeles County. Snow levels will be above
6,000 feet for most of the precipitation, but will drop to as low at
5,000 feet on Friday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms
tonight through Friday. Snow amounts of 3 to 6 inches is the
most likely outcome for elevations above 6,000 feet.

Dry weather will likely follow this weekend through at least most of
next week.

$$

Hall