Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
710 FNUS86 KLOX 202258 FWLLOX ECCDA Discussions National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 358 PM PDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ECC029-211700- Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch 358 PM PDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ...Discussion from Monterey... ...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON WINDS... High pressure will bring hot and dry conditions to the district through the weekend. The thermal belts will be active with mild and dry conditions at night across the higher elevations. Sea breezes develop each afternoon, bringing periods of elevated fire weather conditions where the winds coincide with hot and dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture arrives beginning Friday, bringing high clouds and a very low but nonzero chance on convection to the region. Gradual cooling is expected to arrive the early part of next week. Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified. Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds. ...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM PDT THURSDAY TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY... Continued gradual warming and drying will be the story for today as high pressure continues to build westward over the region. There will be gusty Sundowner winds this evening with wind gusts up to 30 to 40 mph, mainly focused from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass. Humidity levels could lower into the 20 to 40 percent range this evening, thereby increasing the fire weather concerns for southwest Santa Barbara county. Temperatures will continue to increase and peak Thursday and Friday, as a part of a long duration heat wave that will continue through Sunday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts will likely spread to inland portions of the coastal plain, where temperatures between 90 and 100 degrees will be likely. During the peak of the heatwave, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions away from the immediate coast. Additionally, the aforementioned parameters will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and extreme fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings are in effect. The Red Flag Warning areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy Friday through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related extreme fire behavior. $$ ECC028-211700- Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch 358 PM PDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM PDT THURSDAY TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY... Continued gradual warming and drying will be the story for today as high pressure continues to build westward over the region. There will be gusty Sundowner winds this evening with wind gusts up to 30 to 40 mph, mainly focused from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass. Humidity levels could lower into the 20 to 40 percent range this evening, thereby increasing the fire weather concerns for southwest Santa Barbara county. Temperatures will continue to increase and peak Thursday and Friday, as a part of a long duration heat wave that will continue through Sunday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts will likely spread to inland portions of the coastal plain, where temperatures between 90 and 100 degrees will be likely. During the peak of the heatwave, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions away from the immediate coast. Additionally, the aforementioned parameters will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and extreme fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings are in effect. The Red Flag Warning areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy Friday through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related extreme fire behavior. $$ ECC031-211700- Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch 358 PM PDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM PDT THURSDAY TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY... Continued gradual warming and drying will be the story for today as high pressure continues to build westward over the region. There will be gusty Sundowner winds this evening with wind gusts up to 30 to 40 mph, mainly focused from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass. Humidity levels could lower into the 20 to 40 percent range this evening, thereby increasing the fire weather concerns for southwest Santa Barbara county. Temperatures will continue to increase and peak Thursday and Friday, as a part of a long duration heat wave that will continue through Sunday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts will likely spread to inland portions of the coastal plain, where temperatures between 90 and 100 degrees will be likely. During the peak of the heatwave, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions away from the immediate coast. Additionally, the aforementioned parameters will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and extreme fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings are in effect. The Red Flag Warning areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy Friday through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related extreme fire behavior. $$ ECC024-211700- San Luis Obispo County- Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch 358 PM PDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM PDT THURSDAY TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY... Continued gradual warming and drying will be the story for today as high pressure continues to build westward over the region. There will be gusty Sundowner winds this evening with wind gusts up to 30 to 40 mph, mainly focused from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass. Humidity levels could lower into the 20 to 40 percent range this evening, thereby increasing the fire weather concerns for southwest Santa Barbara county. Temperatures will continue to increase and peak Thursday and Friday, as a part of a long duration heat wave that will continue through Sunday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts will likely spread to inland portions of the coastal plain, where temperatures between 90 and 100 degrees will be likely. During the peak of the heatwave, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions away from the immediate coast. Additionally, the aforementioned parameters will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and extreme fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings are in effect. The Red Flag Warning areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy Friday through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related extreme fire behavior. $$ ECC032-211700- Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch 358 PM PDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM PDT THURSDAY TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY... Continued gradual warming and drying will be the story for today as high pressure continues to build westward over the region. There will be gusty Sundowner winds this evening with wind gusts up to 30 to 40 mph, mainly focused from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass. Humidity levels could lower into the 20 to 40 percent range this evening, thereby increasing the fire weather concerns for southwest Santa Barbara county. Temperatures will continue to increase and peak Thursday and Friday, as a part of a long duration heat wave that will continue through Sunday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts will likely spread to inland portions of the coastal plain, where temperatures between 90 and 100 degrees will be likely. During the peak of the heatwave, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions away from the immediate coast. Additionally, the aforementioned parameters will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and extreme fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings are in effect. The Red Flag Warning areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy Friday through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related extreme fire behavior. $$ ECC030-211700- Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch 358 PM PDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM PDT THURSDAY TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY... Continued gradual warming and drying will be the story for today as high pressure continues to build westward over the region. There will be gusty Sundowner winds this evening with wind gusts up to 30 to 40 mph, mainly focused from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass. Humidity levels could lower into the 20 to 40 percent range this evening, thereby increasing the fire weather concerns for southwest Santa Barbara county. Temperatures will continue to increase and peak Thursday and Friday, as a part of a long duration heat wave that will continue through Sunday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts will likely spread to inland portions of the coastal plain, where temperatures between 90 and 100 degrees will be likely. During the peak of the heatwave, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions away from the immediate coast. Additionally, the aforementioned parameters will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and extreme fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings are in effect. The Red Flag Warning areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy Friday through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related extreme fire behavior. $$