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FNUS86 KLOX 182318
FWLLOX

ECCDA Discussions
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
418 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

ECC029-191730-
Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch
418 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...Discussion from Monterey...

Cool conditions and excellent relative humidity recoveries and
retentions will continue through tomorrow as a low pressure system
moves through the area. Light rain chances will begin to taper off
tonight for the North Bay and Bay Area with chances lingering into
tomorrow for the Central Coast with most locations expected to
receive less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Friday kickoffs a
warming and drying trend with near to slightly above normal
temperatures and poor to moderate relative humidity recoveries and
retentions in the higher elevations.

Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified.
Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds.



...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard...

...MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER SOME INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS THURSDAY, FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED...

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

An unseasonable low pressure system, currently 100 miles west of
Monterey, will swing through southwest California Thursday into
Friday. This will result in continued cool and moist conditions
through Friday. This system is unstable, and the chance for
thunderstorms and locally  heavy rain is growing. The greatest risk
is over interior San Luis  Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura
Counties where several projections  are showing rain rates exceeding
1 inch per hour. This includes the  Hurricane and Apache burn scars
where there is a moderate risk for  significant debris flows. The
Lake Fire is also of concern, but the risk is lower. While most of
the projections push the system off to the east by Friday, some are
much slower and shift the risks into Los Angeles  County on Friday.
While the risk is low for debris flows over the Post  and Bridge
burn scars, it is not zero and will continue to be assessed.
Coastal and valley areas also have a chance for rain, but the risk
for  heavy rain is very low. Winds will be light tonight, then
increase on  Thursday and Friday with a significant wind shift from
southeast to  northwest as the low moves through.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$

ECC028-191730-
Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch
418 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER SOME INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS THURSDAY, FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED...

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

An unseasonable low pressure system, currently 100 miles west of
Monterey, will swing through southwest California Thursday into
Friday. This will result in continued cool and moist conditions
through Friday. This system is unstable, and the chance for
thunderstorms and locally  heavy rain is growing. The greatest risk
is over interior San Luis  Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura
Counties where several projections  are showing rain rates exceeding
1 inch per hour. This includes the  Hurricane and Apache burn scars
where there is a moderate risk for  significant debris flows. The
Lake Fire is also of concern, but the risk is lower. While most of
the projections push the system off to the east by Friday, some are
much slower and shift the risks into Los Angeles  County on Friday.
While the risk is low for debris flows over the Post  and Bridge
burn scars, it is not zero and will continue to be assessed.
Coastal and valley areas also have a chance for rain, but the risk
for  heavy rain is very low. Winds will be light tonight, then
increase on  Thursday and Friday with a significant wind shift from
southeast to  northwest as the low moves through.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$

ECC031-191730-
Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch
418 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER SOME INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS THURSDAY, FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED...

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

An unseasonable low pressure system, currently 100 miles west of
Monterey, will swing through southwest California Thursday into
Friday. This will result in continued cool and moist conditions
through Friday. This system is unstable, and the chance for
thunderstorms and locally  heavy rain is growing. The greatest risk
is over interior San Luis  Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura
Counties where several projections  are showing rain rates exceeding
1 inch per hour. This includes the  Hurricane and Apache burn scars
where there is a moderate risk for  significant debris flows. The
Lake Fire is also of concern, but the risk is lower. While most of
the projections push the system off to the east by Friday, some are
much slower and shift the risks into Los Angeles  County on Friday.
While the risk is low for debris flows over the Post  and Bridge
burn scars, it is not zero and will continue to be assessed.
Coastal and valley areas also have a chance for rain, but the risk
for  heavy rain is very low. Winds will be light tonight, then
increase on  Thursday and Friday with a significant wind shift from
southeast to  northwest as the low moves through.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$

ECC024-191730-
San Luis Obispo County-
Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch
418 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER SOME INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS THURSDAY, FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED...

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

An unseasonable low pressure system, currently 100 miles west of
Monterey, will swing through southwest California Thursday into
Friday. This will result in continued cool and moist conditions
through Friday. This system is unstable, and the chance for
thunderstorms and locally  heavy rain is growing. The greatest risk
is over interior San Luis  Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura
Counties where several projections  are showing rain rates exceeding
1 inch per hour. This includes the  Hurricane and Apache burn scars
where there is a moderate risk for  significant debris flows. The
Lake Fire is also of concern, but the risk is lower. While most of
the projections push the system off to the east by Friday, some are
much slower and shift the risks into Los Angeles  County on Friday.
While the risk is low for debris flows over the Post  and Bridge
burn scars, it is not zero and will continue to be assessed.
Coastal and valley areas also have a chance for rain, but the risk
for  heavy rain is very low. Winds will be light tonight, then
increase on  Thursday and Friday with a significant wind shift from
southeast to  northwest as the low moves through.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$

ECC032-191730-
Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch
418 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER SOME INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS THURSDAY, FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED...

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

An unseasonable low pressure system, currently 100 miles west of
Monterey, will swing through southwest California Thursday into
Friday. This will result in continued cool and moist conditions
through Friday. This system is unstable, and the chance for
thunderstorms and locally  heavy rain is growing. The greatest risk
is over interior San Luis  Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura
Counties where several projections  are showing rain rates exceeding
1 inch per hour. This includes the  Hurricane and Apache burn scars
where there is a moderate risk for  significant debris flows. The
Lake Fire is also of concern, but the risk is lower. While most of
the projections push the system off to the east by Friday, some are
much slower and shift the risks into Los Angeles  County on Friday.
While the risk is low for debris flows over the Post  and Bridge
burn scars, it is not zero and will continue to be assessed.
Coastal and valley areas also have a chance for rain, but the risk
for  heavy rain is very low. Winds will be light tonight, then
increase on  Thursday and Friday with a significant wind shift from
southeast to  northwest as the low moves through.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$

ECC030-191730-
Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch
418 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER SOME INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS THURSDAY, FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED...

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

An unseasonable low pressure system, currently 100 miles west of
Monterey, will swing through southwest California Thursday into
Friday. This will result in continued cool and moist conditions
through Friday. This system is unstable, and the chance for
thunderstorms and locally  heavy rain is growing. The greatest risk
is over interior San Luis  Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura
Counties where several projections  are showing rain rates exceeding
1 inch per hour. This includes the  Hurricane and Apache burn scars
where there is a moderate risk for  significant debris flows. The
Lake Fire is also of concern, but the risk is lower. While most of
the projections push the system off to the east by Friday, some are
much slower and shift the risks into Los Angeles  County on Friday.
While the risk is low for debris flows over the Post  and Bridge
burn scars, it is not zero and will continue to be assessed.
Coastal and valley areas also have a chance for rain, but the risk
for  heavy rain is very low. Winds will be light tonight, then
increase on  Thursday and Friday with a significant wind shift from
southeast to  northwest as the low moves through.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$