Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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ECCDA Discussions
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
335 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

ECC029-201645-
Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch
335 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...Discussion from Monterey...

An upper level disturbance moving through Southern California will
result in a few scattered showers and  thunderstorms over southern
Monterey and San Benito counties  through this evening. Elsewhere
around the district will remain  dry. Marine layer along the coast
will move inland again tonight.  One more day of cooler weather on
Friday before high pressure  brings warmer and drier conditions this
weekend.

Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified.
Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds.



...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard...

...MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER
SOME MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT, FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ISSUED...

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...

An unseasonable low pressure system, currently 50 miles west of
Point Conception, will swing through southwest California into
Friday.  This will result in continued cool and moist conditions
through Friday.  This system is unstable and will carry chances for
thunderstorms over  most areas with locally heavy rain. The focus
through tonight will be  over San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and
Ventura Counties, with the  greatest risks over the interior areas
where there is a moderate risk of rain rates exceeding 1 inch per
hour. Rain this intense would be  capable of producing significant
debris flows over recent burn areas,  including the Hurricane,
Apache and Lake burn scars. As the system  moves east into Friday,
the shower and thunderstorm activity will decrease but not go away.
While the risk is low for debris flows over  the Post and Bridge
burn scars on Friday, it is not zero and will  continue to be
assessed. Coastal and valley areas also have a chance for rain and
thunderstorms, but the risk for heavy rain is low. Winds will shift
from southerly to northerly tonight and Friday as the low moves
through.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$

ECC028-201645-
Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch
335 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER
SOME MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT, FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ISSUED...

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...

An unseasonable low pressure system, currently 50 miles west of
Point Conception, will swing through southwest California into
Friday.  This will result in continued cool and moist conditions
through Friday.  This system is unstable and will carry chances for
thunderstorms over  most areas with locally heavy rain. The focus
through tonight will be  over San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and
Ventura Counties, with the  greatest risks over the interior areas
where there is a moderate risk of rain rates exceeding 1 inch per
hour. Rain this intense would be  capable of producing significant
debris flows over recent burn areas,  including the Hurricane,
Apache and Lake burn scars. As the system  moves east into Friday,
the shower and thunderstorm activity will decrease but not go away.
While the risk is low for debris flows over  the Post and Bridge
burn scars on Friday, it is not zero and will  continue to be
assessed. Coastal and valley areas also have a chance for rain and
thunderstorms, but the risk for heavy rain is low. Winds will shift
from southerly to northerly tonight and Friday as the low moves
through.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$

ECC031-201645-
Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch
335 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER
SOME MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT, FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ISSUED...

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...

An unseasonable low pressure system, currently 50 miles west of
Point Conception, will swing through southwest California into
Friday.  This will result in continued cool and moist conditions
through Friday.  This system is unstable and will carry chances for
thunderstorms over  most areas with locally heavy rain. The focus
through tonight will be  over San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and
Ventura Counties, with the  greatest risks over the interior areas
where there is a moderate risk of rain rates exceeding 1 inch per
hour. Rain this intense would be  capable of producing significant
debris flows over recent burn areas,  including the Hurricane,
Apache and Lake burn scars. As the system  moves east into Friday,
the shower and thunderstorm activity will decrease but not go away.
While the risk is low for debris flows over  the Post and Bridge
burn scars on Friday, it is not zero and will  continue to be
assessed. Coastal and valley areas also have a chance for rain and
thunderstorms, but the risk for heavy rain is low. Winds will shift
from southerly to northerly tonight and Friday as the low moves
through.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$

ECC024-201645-
San Luis Obispo County-
Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch
335 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER
SOME MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT, FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ISSUED...

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...

An unseasonable low pressure system, currently 50 miles west of
Point Conception, will swing through southwest California into
Friday.  This will result in continued cool and moist conditions
through Friday.  This system is unstable and will carry chances for
thunderstorms over  most areas with locally heavy rain. The focus
through tonight will be  over San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and
Ventura Counties, with the  greatest risks over the interior areas
where there is a moderate risk of rain rates exceeding 1 inch per
hour. Rain this intense would be  capable of producing significant
debris flows over recent burn areas,  including the Hurricane,
Apache and Lake burn scars. As the system  moves east into Friday,
the shower and thunderstorm activity will decrease but not go away.
While the risk is low for debris flows over  the Post and Bridge
burn scars on Friday, it is not zero and will  continue to be
assessed. Coastal and valley areas also have a chance for rain and
thunderstorms, but the risk for heavy rain is low. Winds will shift
from southerly to northerly tonight and Friday as the low moves
through.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$

ECC032-201645-
Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch
335 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER
SOME MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT, FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ISSUED...

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...

An unseasonable low pressure system, currently 50 miles west of
Point Conception, will swing through southwest California into
Friday.  This will result in continued cool and moist conditions
through Friday.  This system is unstable and will carry chances for
thunderstorms over  most areas with locally heavy rain. The focus
through tonight will be  over San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and
Ventura Counties, with the  greatest risks over the interior areas
where there is a moderate risk of rain rates exceeding 1 inch per
hour. Rain this intense would be  capable of producing significant
debris flows over recent burn areas,  including the Hurricane,
Apache and Lake burn scars. As the system  moves east into Friday,
the shower and thunderstorm activity will decrease but not go away.
While the risk is low for debris flows over  the Post and Bridge
burn scars on Friday, it is not zero and will  continue to be
assessed. Coastal and valley areas also have a chance for rain and
thunderstorms, but the risk for heavy rain is low. Winds will shift
from southerly to northerly tonight and Friday as the low moves
through.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$

ECC030-201645-
Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch
335 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER
SOME MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT, FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ISSUED...

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...

An unseasonable low pressure system, currently 50 miles west of
Point Conception, will swing through southwest California into
Friday.  This will result in continued cool and moist conditions
through Friday.  This system is unstable and will carry chances for
thunderstorms over  most areas with locally heavy rain. The focus
through tonight will be  over San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and
Ventura Counties, with the  greatest risks over the interior areas
where there is a moderate risk of rain rates exceeding 1 inch per
hour. Rain this intense would be  capable of producing significant
debris flows over recent burn areas,  including the Hurricane,
Apache and Lake burn scars. As the system  moves east into Friday,
the shower and thunderstorm activity will decrease but not go away.
While the risk is low for debris flows over  the Post and Bridge
burn scars on Friday, it is not zero and will  continue to be
assessed. Coastal and valley areas also have a chance for rain and
thunderstorms, but the risk for heavy rain is low. Winds will shift
from southerly to northerly tonight and Friday as the low moves
through.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$