Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
575 FNUS86 KLOX 142245 FWLLOX ECCDA Discussions National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 245 PM PST Thu Nov 14 2024 ECC029-151645- Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch 245 PM PST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...Discussion from Monterey... Beneficial rain continues into the weekend, lowering fire weather threats. The chance for thunderstorm remains for the remainder of the day today and overnight over the North Bay, East Bay, and SF Bay. Overall good overnight recoveries as relative humidity will be mostly 70-90%. Daytime humidity values will be decent with mostly 40-60% going into the weekend, but late weekend, conditions become drier. Winds will be relatively moderate with moments of gusty winds as showers continue to move over our area overnight. The trend towards cooler temperatures continue into the weekend with possible frost or freezing temperatures Friday night into Saturday. Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified. Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds. ...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard... ...CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER EVENT INCLUDING ***POTENTIAL HIGH-END RED FLAG*** CONDITIONS FROM A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT LIKELY BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND THURSDAY... ...FIRE-WEATHER HEADLINES LIKELY BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND THURSDAY -- GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE-- ... A cold upper level trough will likely bring areas of light rain across the region tonight into Friday, with the best chances north of Point Conception and north facing slopes. Amounts will generally be one- to two-tenths inch at most, and some flurries over the interior mountains. This system will bring cooler temperatures and gusty west to north winds, especially in the mountains, Antelope Valley, and southern Santa Barbara county, where gusts of 35 to 50 mph can be expected. By Sunday, there will be a slight offshore wind influence that will bring a drying trend and some locally elevated fire weather conditions. Between next Tuesday and Thursday, a moderate to possibly strong Santa Ana wind event is expected to develop. This will bring an increasing likelihood for critical fire-weather conditions including ***POTENTIAL HIGH-END RED FLAG*** conditions. The next Tuesday through Thursday Santa Ana wind event will likely be a warmer and drier Santa Ana wind event compared to the event from last week. Relative humidities may be 5% drier over the coastal slopes and valleys for next Tuesday through Thursday -- with potential for widespread single digit relative humidities--as temperatures warm well into the 70s and 80s (enhancing the fire-plume growth-potential component). The LAX-Daggett gradient is now expected to be in the -5 to -6 mb range, with Santa Ana winds expected to focus over the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles County through the Ventura County Mountains including the Santa Susanas and extend over coastal slopes through the coastal valleys and over the Santa Monicas to the beaches -- i.e., Santa Ana wind-prone areas. One notable difference between the next Tuesday through Thursday event compared to the event from last week is that the stronger upper level wind support is eexpectedto be displaced much farther east. As a result, present indications are that winds will not be as strong as last week`s event (modestly reducing the extent of long-range spotting potential). Nevertheless, there is a greater than 80% chance that fire-weather headlines will become necessary across much of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties between Tuesday and Thursday of next week. With very poor overnight relative humidity recovery expected, this will have the potential to be a long-duration Red Flag event, adding to the potentially very favorable fire-weather environment for large fire development. Also of note, spotty elevated fire-weather conditions cannot be ruled out over the interior mountains of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties next week, though the focus for stronger winds will be in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. $$ ECC028-151645- Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch 245 PM PST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER EVENT INCLUDING ***POTENTIAL HIGH-END RED FLAG*** CONDITIONS FROM A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT LIKELY BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND THURSDAY... ...FIRE-WEATHER HEADLINES LIKELY BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND THURSDAY -- GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE-- ... A cold upper level trough will likely bring areas of light rain across the region tonight into Friday, with the best chances north of Point Conception and north facing slopes. Amounts will generally be one- to two-tenths inch at most, and some flurries over the interior mountains. This system will bring cooler temperatures and gusty west to north winds, especially in the mountains, Antelope Valley, and southern Santa Barbara county, where gusts of 35 to 50 mph can be expected. By Sunday, there will be a slight offshore wind influence that will bring a drying trend and some locally elevated fire weather conditions. Between next Tuesday and Thursday, a moderate to possibly strong Santa Ana wind event is expected to develop. This will bring an increasing likelihood for critical fire-weather conditions including ***POTENTIAL HIGH-END RED FLAG*** conditions. The next Tuesday through Thursday Santa Ana wind event will likely be a warmer and drier Santa Ana wind event compared to the event from last week. Relative humidities may be 5% drier over the coastal slopes and valleys for next Tuesday through Thursday -- with potential for widespread single digit relative humidities--as temperatures warm well into the 70s and 80s (enhancing the fire-plume growth-potential component). The LAX-Daggett gradient is now expected to be in the -5 to -6 mb range, with Santa Ana winds expected to focus over the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles County through the Ventura County Mountains including the Santa Susanas and extend over coastal slopes through the coastal valleys and over the Santa Monicas to the beaches -- i.e., Santa Ana wind-prone areas. One notable difference between the next Tuesday through Thursday event compared to the event from last week is that the stronger upper level wind support is eexpectedto be displaced much farther east. As a result, present indications are that winds will not be as strong as last week`s event (modestly reducing the extent of long-range spotting potential). Nevertheless, there is a greater than 80% chance that fire-weather headlines will become necessary across much of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties between Tuesday and Thursday of next week. With very poor overnight relative humidity recovery expected, this will have the potential to be a long-duration Red Flag event, adding to the potentially very favorable fire-weather environment for large fire development. Also of note, spotty elevated fire-weather conditions cannot be ruled out over the interior mountains of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties next week, though the focus for stronger winds will be in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. $$ ECC031-151645- Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch 245 PM PST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER EVENT INCLUDING ***POTENTIAL HIGH-END RED FLAG*** CONDITIONS FROM A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT LIKELY BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND THURSDAY... ...FIRE-WEATHER HEADLINES LIKELY BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND THURSDAY -- GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE-- ... A cold upper level trough will likely bring areas of light rain across the region tonight into Friday, with the best chances north of Point Conception and north facing slopes. Amounts will generally be one- to two-tenths inch at most, and some flurries over the interior mountains. This system will bring cooler temperatures and gusty west to north winds, especially in the mountains, Antelope Valley, and southern Santa Barbara county, where gusts of 35 to 50 mph can be expected. By Sunday, there will be a slight offshore wind influence that will bring a drying trend and some locally elevated fire weather conditions. Between next Tuesday and Thursday, a moderate to possibly strong Santa Ana wind event is expected to develop. This will bring an increasing likelihood for critical fire-weather conditions including ***POTENTIAL HIGH-END RED FLAG*** conditions. The next Tuesday through Thursday Santa Ana wind event will likely be a warmer and drier Santa Ana wind event compared to the event from last week. Relative humidities may be 5% drier over the coastal slopes and valleys for next Tuesday through Thursday -- with potential for widespread single digit relative humidities--as temperatures warm well into the 70s and 80s (enhancing the fire-plume growth-potential component). The LAX-Daggett gradient is now expected to be in the -5 to -6 mb range, with Santa Ana winds expected to focus over the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles County through the Ventura County Mountains including the Santa Susanas and extend over coastal slopes through the coastal valleys and over the Santa Monicas to the beaches -- i.e., Santa Ana wind-prone areas. One notable difference between the next Tuesday through Thursday event compared to the event from last week is that the stronger upper level wind support is eexpectedto be displaced much farther east. As a result, present indications are that winds will not be as strong as last week`s event (modestly reducing the extent of long-range spotting potential). Nevertheless, there is a greater than 80% chance that fire-weather headlines will become necessary across much of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties between Tuesday and Thursday of next week. With very poor overnight relative humidity recovery expected, this will have the potential to be a long-duration Red Flag event, adding to the potentially very favorable fire-weather environment for large fire development. Also of note, spotty elevated fire-weather conditions cannot be ruled out over the interior mountains of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties next week, though the focus for stronger winds will be in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. $$ ECC024-151645- San Luis Obispo County- Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch 245 PM PST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER EVENT INCLUDING ***POTENTIAL HIGH-END RED FLAG*** CONDITIONS FROM A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT LIKELY BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND THURSDAY... ...FIRE-WEATHER HEADLINES LIKELY BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND THURSDAY -- GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE-- ... A cold upper level trough will likely bring areas of light rain across the region tonight into Friday, with the best chances north of Point Conception and north facing slopes. Amounts will generally be one- to two-tenths inch at most, and some flurries over the interior mountains. This system will bring cooler temperatures and gusty west to north winds, especially in the mountains, Antelope Valley, and southern Santa Barbara county, where gusts of 35 to 50 mph can be expected. By Sunday, there will be a slight offshore wind influence that will bring a drying trend and some locally elevated fire weather conditions. Between next Tuesday and Thursday, a moderate to possibly strong Santa Ana wind event is expected to develop. This will bring an increasing likelihood for critical fire-weather conditions including ***POTENTIAL HIGH-END RED FLAG*** conditions. The next Tuesday through Thursday Santa Ana wind event will likely be a warmer and drier Santa Ana wind event compared to the event from last week. Relative humidities may be 5% drier over the coastal slopes and valleys for next Tuesday through Thursday -- with potential for widespread single digit relative humidities--as temperatures warm well into the 70s and 80s (enhancing the fire-plume growth-potential component). The LAX-Daggett gradient is now expected to be in the -5 to -6 mb range, with Santa Ana winds expected to focus over the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles County through the Ventura County Mountains including the Santa Susanas and extend over coastal slopes through the coastal valleys and over the Santa Monicas to the beaches -- i.e., Santa Ana wind-prone areas. One notable difference between the next Tuesday through Thursday event compared to the event from last week is that the stronger upper level wind support is eexpectedto be displaced much farther east. As a result, present indications are that winds will not be as strong as last week`s event (modestly reducing the extent of long-range spotting potential). Nevertheless, there is a greater than 80% chance that fire-weather headlines will become necessary across much of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties between Tuesday and Thursday of next week. With very poor overnight relative humidity recovery expected, this will have the potential to be a long-duration Red Flag event, adding to the potentially very favorable fire-weather environment for large fire development. Also of note, spotty elevated fire-weather conditions cannot be ruled out over the interior mountains of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties next week, though the focus for stronger winds will be in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. $$ ECC032-151645- Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch 245 PM PST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER EVENT INCLUDING ***POTENTIAL HIGH-END RED FLAG*** CONDITIONS FROM A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT LIKELY BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND THURSDAY... ...FIRE-WEATHER HEADLINES LIKELY BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND THURSDAY -- GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE-- ... A cold upper level trough will likely bring areas of light rain across the region tonight into Friday, with the best chances north of Point Conception and north facing slopes. Amounts will generally be one- to two-tenths inch at most, and some flurries over the interior mountains. This system will bring cooler temperatures and gusty west to north winds, especially in the mountains, Antelope Valley, and southern Santa Barbara county, where gusts of 35 to 50 mph can be expected. By Sunday, there will be a slight offshore wind influence that will bring a drying trend and some locally elevated fire weather conditions. Between next Tuesday and Thursday, a moderate to possibly strong Santa Ana wind event is expected to develop. This will bring an increasing likelihood for critical fire-weather conditions including ***POTENTIAL HIGH-END RED FLAG*** conditions. The next Tuesday through Thursday Santa Ana wind event will likely be a warmer and drier Santa Ana wind event compared to the event from last week. Relative humidities may be 5% drier over the coastal slopes and valleys for next Tuesday through Thursday -- with potential for widespread single digit relative humidities--as temperatures warm well into the 70s and 80s (enhancing the fire-plume growth-potential component). The LAX-Daggett gradient is now expected to be in the -5 to -6 mb range, with Santa Ana winds expected to focus over the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles County through the Ventura County Mountains including the Santa Susanas and extend over coastal slopes through the coastal valleys and over the Santa Monicas to the beaches -- i.e., Santa Ana wind-prone areas. One notable difference between the next Tuesday through Thursday event compared to the event from last week is that the stronger upper level wind support is eexpectedto be displaced much farther east. As a result, present indications are that winds will not be as strong as last week`s event (modestly reducing the extent of long-range spotting potential). Nevertheless, there is a greater than 80% chance that fire-weather headlines will become necessary across much of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties between Tuesday and Thursday of next week. With very poor overnight relative humidity recovery expected, this will have the potential to be a long-duration Red Flag event, adding to the potentially very favorable fire-weather environment for large fire development. Also of note, spotty elevated fire-weather conditions cannot be ruled out over the interior mountains of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties next week, though the focus for stronger winds will be in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. $$ ECC030-151645- Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch 245 PM PST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER EVENT INCLUDING ***POTENTIAL HIGH-END RED FLAG*** CONDITIONS FROM A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT LIKELY BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND THURSDAY... ...FIRE-WEATHER HEADLINES LIKELY BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND THURSDAY -- GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE-- ... A cold upper level trough will likely bring areas of light rain across the region tonight into Friday, with the best chances north of Point Conception and north facing slopes. Amounts will generally be one- to two-tenths inch at most, and some flurries over the interior mountains. This system will bring cooler temperatures and gusty west to north winds, especially in the mountains, Antelope Valley, and southern Santa Barbara county, where gusts of 35 to 50 mph can be expected. By Sunday, there will be a slight offshore wind influence that will bring a drying trend and some locally elevated fire weather conditions. Between next Tuesday and Thursday, a moderate to possibly strong Santa Ana wind event is expected to develop. This will bring an increasing likelihood for critical fire-weather conditions including ***POTENTIAL HIGH-END RED FLAG*** conditions. The next Tuesday through Thursday Santa Ana wind event will likely be a warmer and drier Santa Ana wind event compared to the event from last week. Relative humidities may be 5% drier over the coastal slopes and valleys for next Tuesday through Thursday -- with potential for widespread single digit relative humidities--as temperatures warm well into the 70s and 80s (enhancing the fire-plume growth-potential component). The LAX-Daggett gradient is now expected to be in the -5 to -6 mb range, with Santa Ana winds expected to focus over the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles County through the Ventura County Mountains including the Santa Susanas and extend over coastal slopes through the coastal valleys and over the Santa Monicas to the beaches -- i.e., Santa Ana wind-prone areas. One notable difference between the next Tuesday through Thursday event compared to the event from last week is that the stronger upper level wind support is eexpectedto be displaced much farther east. As a result, present indications are that winds will not be as strong as last week`s event (modestly reducing the extent of long-range spotting potential). Nevertheless, there is a greater than 80% chance that fire-weather headlines will become necessary across much of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties between Tuesday and Thursday of next week. With very poor overnight relative humidity recovery expected, this will have the potential to be a long-duration Red Flag event, adding to the potentially very favorable fire-weather environment for large fire development. Also of note, spotty elevated fire-weather conditions cannot be ruled out over the interior mountains of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties next week, though the focus for stronger winds will be in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. $$