Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
892 FNUS86 KLOX 092306 FWLLOX FNUS86 KLOX 092306 FWLLOX ECCDA Discussions National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 406 PM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ECC029-101715- Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch 406 PM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...Discussion from Monterey... Fire weather concerns are generally low with onshore wind, high humidity, low temperature, and rain in the forecast. A weak disturbance will bring overcast skies and some light rain to the North Bay Friday. Drier air will settle in briefly this weekend with some gusty onshore winds both Saturday and Sunday. These conditions will be short lived as a mush more robust system brings widespread wetting rain the the Bay Area and Central Coast early next week, with around 1" or more expected from Monday-Tuesday. If the forecast holds, this significant early season rain will bring roughly the normal precipitation for the entire month of October, increasing fuel moisture considerably. Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified. Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds. ...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY LIGHTNING FOR EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY TODAY AND FRIDAY... ...WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... A surge of subtropical moisture from a remnant tropical system will continue to bring a slight chance (10-15 percent) of showers and thunderstorms focused across eastern LA County today into Friday. Dry lightning fire starts will be possible along with locally gusty and erratic winds should any thunderstorm form. Gusty northwest to north winds with potential peak gusts of 30 to 50 mph across wind-prone interior areas and southwest Santa Barbara County possible this Saturday, although humidities should generally remain elevated during that time (above 25 percent). A weak offshore push may lead to elevated fire weather conditions for the mountains and interior valleys on Sunday with wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph and min humidities dipping to between 12-25 percent. Active weather will continue early next week with a potential for a major storm Monday night into Wednesday, however confidence is extremely low due widespread disagreement across models resulting in a very large range of outcomes. The severity of the potential storm as well as where might be impacted the most (or not at all) is highly dependent on the track of the low pressure system dropping into the region from the north. Some guidance suggests little to nothing could happen, while others suggest that this system could be extremely impactful for southwest facing mountains, including the potential for severe flash flooding and/or debris flows in and nearby recent burn scars across San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties. $$ ECC028-101715- Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch 406 PM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY LIGHTNING FOR EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY TODAY AND FRIDAY... ...WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... A surge of subtropical moisture from a remnant tropical system will continue to bring a slight chance (10-15 percent) of showers and thunderstorms focused across eastern LA County today into Friday. Dry lightning fire starts will be possible along with locally gusty and erratic winds should any thunderstorm form. Gusty northwest to north winds with potential peak gusts of 30 to 50 mph across wind-prone interior areas and southwest Santa Barbara County possible this Saturday, although humidities should generally remain elevated during that time (above 25 percent). A weak offshore push may lead to elevated fire weather conditions for the mountains and interior valleys on Sunday with wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph and min humidities dipping to between 12-25 percent. Active weather will continue early next week with a potential for a major storm Monday night into Wednesday, however confidence is extremely low due widespread disagreement across models resulting in a very large range of outcomes. The severity of the potential storm as well as where might be impacted the most (or not at all) is highly dependent on the track of the low pressure system dropping into the region from the north. Some guidance suggests little to nothing could happen, while others suggest that this system could be extremely impactful for southwest facing mountains, including the potential for severe flash flooding and/or debris flows in and nearby recent burn scars across San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties. $$ ECC031-101715- Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch 406 PM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY LIGHTNING FOR EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY TODAY AND FRIDAY... ...WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... A surge of subtropical moisture from a remnant tropical system will continue to bring a slight chance (10-15 percent) of showers and thunderstorms focused across eastern LA County today into Friday. Dry lightning fire starts will be possible along with locally gusty and erratic winds should any thunderstorm form. Gusty northwest to north winds with potential peak gusts of 30 to 50 mph across wind-prone interior areas and southwest Santa Barbara County possible this Saturday, although humidities should generally remain elevated during that time (above 25 percent). A weak offshore push may lead to elevated fire weather conditions for the mountains and interior valleys on Sunday with wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph and min humidities dipping to between 12-25 percent. Active weather will continue early next week with a potential for a major storm Monday night into Wednesday, however confidence is extremely low due widespread disagreement across models resulting in a very large range of outcomes. The severity of the potential storm as well as where might be impacted the most (or not at all) is highly dependent on the track of the low pressure system dropping into the region from the north. Some guidance suggests little to nothing could happen, while others suggest that this system could be extremely impactful for southwest facing mountains, including the potential for severe flash flooding and/or debris flows in and nearby recent burn scars across San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties. $$ ECC024-101715- San Luis Obispo County- Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch 406 PM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY LIGHTNING FOR EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY TODAY AND FRIDAY... ...WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... A surge of subtropical moisture from a remnant tropical system will continue to bring a slight chance (10-15 percent) of showers and thunderstorms focused across eastern LA County today into Friday. Dry lightning fire starts will be possible along with locally gusty and erratic winds should any thunderstorm form. Gusty northwest to north winds with potential peak gusts of 30 to 50 mph across wind-prone interior areas and southwest Santa Barbara County possible this Saturday, although humidities should generally remain elevated during that time (above 25 percent). A weak offshore push may lead to elevated fire weather conditions for the mountains and interior valleys on Sunday with wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph and min humidities dipping to between 12-25 percent. Active weather will continue early next week with a potential for a major storm Monday night into Wednesday, however confidence is extremely low due widespread disagreement across models resulting in a very large range of outcomes. The severity of the potential storm as well as where might be impacted the most (or not at all) is highly dependent on the track of the low pressure system dropping into the region from the north. Some guidance suggests little to nothing could happen, while others suggest that this system could be extremely impactful for southwest facing mountains, including the potential for severe flash flooding and/or debris flows in and nearby recent burn scars across San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties. $$ ECC032-101715- Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch 406 PM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY LIGHTNING FOR EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY TODAY AND FRIDAY... ...WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... A surge of subtropical moisture from a remnant tropical system will continue to bring a slight chance (10-15 percent) of showers and thunderstorms focused across eastern LA County today into Friday. Dry lightning fire starts will be possible along with locally gusty and erratic winds should any thunderstorm form. Gusty northwest to north winds with potential peak gusts of 30 to 50 mph across wind-prone interior areas and southwest Santa Barbara County possible this Saturday, although humidities should generally remain elevated during that time (above 25 percent). A weak offshore push may lead to elevated fire weather conditions for the mountains and interior valleys on Sunday with wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph and min humidities dipping to between 12-25 percent. Active weather will continue early next week with a potential for a major storm Monday night into Wednesday, however confidence is extremely low due widespread disagreement across models resulting in a very large range of outcomes. The severity of the potential storm as well as where might be impacted the most (or not at all) is highly dependent on the track of the low pressure system dropping into the region from the north. Some guidance suggests little to nothing could happen, while others suggest that this system could be extremely impactful for southwest facing mountains, including the potential for severe flash flooding and/or debris flows in and nearby recent burn scars across San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties. $$ ECC030-101715- Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch 406 PM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY LIGHTNING FOR EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY TODAY AND FRIDAY... ...WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... A surge of subtropical moisture from a remnant tropical system will continue to bring a slight chance (10-15 percent) of showers and thunderstorms focused across eastern LA County today into Friday. Dry lightning fire starts will be possible along with locally gusty and erratic winds should any thunderstorm form. Gusty northwest to north winds with potential peak gusts of 30 to 50 mph across wind-prone interior areas and southwest Santa Barbara County possible this Saturday, although humidities should generally remain elevated during that time (above 25 percent). A weak offshore push may lead to elevated fire weather conditions for the mountains and interior valleys on Sunday with wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph and min humidities dipping to between 12-25 percent. Active weather will continue early next week with a potential for a major storm Monday night into Wednesday, however confidence is extremely low due widespread disagreement across models resulting in a very large range of outcomes. The severity of the potential storm as well as where might be impacted the most (or not at all) is highly dependent on the track of the low pressure system dropping into the region from the north. Some guidance suggests little to nothing could happen, while others suggest that this system could be extremely impactful for southwest facing mountains, including the potential for severe flash flooding and/or debris flows in and nearby recent burn scars across San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties. $$