564
FXUS66 KLOX 112342
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
442 PM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...11/133 AM.

Night through morning low clouds and patchy fog will affect the
coasts and lower valleys into next week. Max temperatures will
cool today and Saturday and will end up several degrees below
normal. There will be continued cooling through the middle of next
week with valley highs on Tuesday only in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...11/127 PM.

Pretty similar weather conditions are expected each day in the
short term. 594 to 595 dam of high pressure will sit over the
region and move over the region bit by bit through the next few
days, with not too much changing. At the surface, however, onshore
pressure gradients have started strengthening and will linger
around 9 to 10 mb for the LAX-DAG gradient in the afternoons,
while the LAX-BFL gradients linger around 5.5 to 7.0 mb. This
onshore flow will not only help the marine layer to push into the
coastal valleys each night, but it may limit the afternoon
clearing at the beaches, where clouds may stay hugging the coasts
each day.

As for temperatures, max temps today are expected to be 1 to 5
degrees below yesterdays temperatures thanks to the cooler air
from the ocean and the marine layer cloud influence. Little day-
to-day changes in temperatures are expected through Monday, with
widespread cooling of a few degrees expected Saturday, and then
little to a few degrees of warming on Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures across the coasts will be in the 70s and lower 80s
(though mid to upper 60s for the Central Coast beaches) and mid
80s to mid 90s for the valleys. The Antelope Valley, however, will
remain around the low triple digits through Monday. Temperatures
across the region during these days will be around 1 to 5 degrees
below normal for this time of year, save for the far interior and
Antelope Valley where temps will be up to 5 degrees above normal.

As for winds, the combination of strong onshore flow and a tight
thermal gradient between the coasts and the Antelope Valley would
typically make one think that winds will be pretty gusty. However,
models and ensembles are really leaning towards below advisory
level winds across the region. This being said, some gusty winds
will (and have) surfaced across the interior locations. Southwest
winds with gusts up to 40 mph (and isolated up to 45-50 mph) will
be likely across the Antelope Valley foothills each afternoon and
evening, then in the evening, winds will shift NW to N and impact
the I-5 Corridor and western portion of the Antelope Valley and
Antelope Valley foothills each evening and night. Held off on
issuing any wind advisories for now, as stations have only
reported gusts around 35 mph. Future shifts may decide to issue
advisories since the winds will be so borderline through Monday.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...11/127 PM.

Fairly benign weather will continue through the extended forecast. Weak
ridging extending from the SW will cover the state through
Wednesday. On Thursday, weak cyclonic flow is forecast to move
over the state. Heights will fall slowly through the period from
594 dam on Monday to 590 dam on Thursday.

More importantly there will continue to be moderate to strong
onshore flow from both to the north and east with the afternoon
push to the east (LAX-DAG gradient) continuing to be near 10 mb
each day. The onshore flow will allow night through morning low
clouds and fog to continue to push across the coasts and into the
lower valleys (the 590+ dam heights should smoosh the marine layer
low enough to prevent deep valley penetration), with slow to no
clearing possible at beaches during the afternoon.

Max temps on Tuesday will be 2 to 4 degrees cooler than the temps
on Monday, and end up 4 to 8 degrees below normal for this time
of year. Temps will not change much from those readings on
Wednesday and Thursday.

The strong onshore flow will bring gusty (likely advisory level)
winds to some of the mountains as well as the western portions of
the Antelope Valley and foothills. Additionally, the gusty winds
across the mountains and interior along with fairly warm
temperatures and fairly low humidities through Tuesday, will
bring an uptick in fire weather danger.

As for monsoonal moisture, a few ensemble members, especially for
the ECWMF, suggests that PWATs over Palmdale may raise up to
around 0.8 to 1.0 as early as Wednesday, and continue into Friday.
Combined with cyclonic flow potentially funneling monsoonal
moisture into the region from the east, a 5 to 10 percent chance
for monsoonal thunderstorms is possible Wednesday through Friday
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...11/2342Z.

At 2259Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was near 3900 feet with a max temperature of 25 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD, KWJF, and KPRB.

Low confidence in TAFs for KBUR and KVNY. Probabilities of no low
clouds tonight/early AM: KBUR - 30% , KVNY - 40%.

Moderate confidence in remaining 00Z TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may be off by 2 hours and flight cat minimums by one
category.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of CIGs may be off
by 2 hours. Minimum CIG height may be off by +/- 300 feet. No
significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Low confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 30% chance for no
low clouds tonight/early AM. Arrival of CIGs may be off 2 hours.
Minimum CIG height may be off +/- 300 feet.

&&

.MARINE...11/141 PM.

High confidence in unseasonably quiet conditions through the
forecast period. Night to morning patchy dense fog is possible
this weekend, with highest chances off the Central Coast.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lund
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox