638
FXUS66 KLOX 152226
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
226 PM PST Mon Dec 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...15/203 PM.

Well above normal temperatures will continue through Friday, with
locally gusty north to northeast winds peaking Tuesday Night and
Wednesday. Dry conditions will continue into next week, but the
potential for a winter storm continues to grow in the December 23
to 26 Christmas holiday window.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...15/221 PM.

North to northeast winds will be the most significant weather
factor for the next few days. The storm systems currently
affecting the Pacific Northwest will move inland tonight and
Tuesday, injecting cold air into northern California. This will
increase the surface pressure up north while winds aloft
strengthen. There will bring breezy conditions to some areas on
Tuesday, but all the ingredients align for a Wednesday into
Thursday peak, when gusts of 30 to 50 mph are expected for the
wind prone areas of all four counties. This includes most interior
mountains as well as the the Santa Lucia and Santa Ynez Ranges,
and the Santa Susana and the Santa Monica mountains. A few Wind
Adivsores are likely. These winds will also push down through
many valleys and some coastal areas, including the LA Basin and
Malibu strip. Thankfully with the recent rains, the risk for
large fires is really small, but we could see some isolated tree
damage and power outages as a result.

A shallow marine layer will continue to bring dense fog with low
visibilities anywhere the low clouds form. With offshore flow
increasing tonight through Wednesday, expecting the low cloud and
fog coverage to decrease significantly. At this point,
southereastern Los Angeles County is the only place with a high
enough chance to mention thanks to weak eddies that form each
morning.

High pressure aloft will increase through Tuesday then remain
steady through Friday. Combining with the offshore flow, we are
looking at high temperatures between 75 and 85 fairly common,
which is 10 to 20 degrees above normal. This includes most coastal
areas. Not expecting any Heat Advisories or Warnings. Overnight
temperatures will remain cool to mild, except some lows staying
in the 60s to even lower 70s in some coastal ranges and hills.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...15/226 PM.

All ensemble projections favor a sharp return to onshore flow on
Friday, which will persist through the weekend. The ridge of high
pressure aloft will break down at the same time. This should all
add up to temperatures lowering by 10 degrees or so, but it will
still be warmer than normal with highs in the upper 60s to mid
70s.

Further out, pretty much all the ensemble projections bring
widespread rain sometime in the December 23-26 window, which will
certainly bring impacts to the busy Christmas holiday. About 20% of
the projections show a strong storm with high rain totals of 4 or
more inches. Being this far out however, there is a wide range of
outcomes but if nothing else, be prepared for at least some rain
around Christmas.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1847Z.

At 18Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3200 feet with a temperature of 20 degrees
Celsius.

High confidence in VFR conds for KBUR, KVNY, KCMA, KOXR, KPMD and
KWJF. For other coastal sites including KLAX as well as KPRB, low
to moderate confidence with a 30 to 60 percent chance of
LIFR/VLIFR cigs/vsbys tonight between 08-18Z, highest for KLGB and
KSMX.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence. There is a 40-50% chance of
IFR/LIFR conditions 08Z-17Z. No significant easterly wind
component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...15/148 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Tuesday, high confidence in Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level winds for all of the Outer Waters. For
Wednesday through Friday, high confidence in SCA level winds
continuing across PZZ673/676, but only a 30-50% chance of SCA
level winds across PZZ670. Seas will approach SCA level at 10
feet in the Wednesday through Friday time frame.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday morning,
high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Monday afternoon through Wednesday, there is a 30-40% chance of
SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For Thursday
and Friday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern
Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below
SCA levels. The only exception will be the western half of the
Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level
winds in the Wednesday through Friday time frame, mainly in the
late afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Kittell
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM/RAT
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox