651
FXUS66 KLOX 061155
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
455 AM PDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...05/817 PM.

Dry weather can be expected through next Saturday. A gradual
warming trend will continue through Thursday. Well above
normal temperatures are likely Wednesday and Thursday with highs
in the mid 80s to low 90s expected across the valleys. It will
turn cooler Friday and Saturday as onshore flow increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...06/309 AM.

Chamber of Commerce weekend continues today as weak offshore flow
combines with a ridge overhead to bring sunny skies and max temps
mostly 5 to 10 degrees above normal. An earlier seabreeze will
cool the coasts 2 to 3 degrees, but the rest of the area will warm
especially the mtns and far inland areas. Most coastal highs will
be in the 70s and most vly highs will be in the 80s.

The ridge gets knocked down on Monday. More importantly onshore
flow to the east develops and the offshore push from the north
weakens considerably. Low clouds will likely develop across the
Central Coast and the Southern LA coast. Max temps will fall
3 to 5 degrees everywhere, save for the Antelope Vly where
increased downsloping westerly flow will bring 3 degrees of
warming.

Not much excitement scheduled for Tuesday. Fairly flat flow will
be overhead but hgts will rise to about 580 dam. Onshore flow will
continue to the east, but the offshore flow from the north will
increase. The hier hgts will bring slight warming to most of the
area, but the increased north flow will shuttle in enough cool air
to reduce max temps across the interior by 2 to 4 degrees.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...06/329 AM.

Wed and Thu will be very warm days. A ridge will push up from the
south and hgts will increase to 585 dam. There will only be very
weak onshore flow to the east on Wed with increasing onshore flow
on Thursday. Moderate offshore flow from the north will develop
Wed, but will weaken some Thu. Skies will be mostly clear and the
ample sunshine will combine with the higher than normal hgts and
offshore push from the north to bring 5 to 10 degrees of warming
to almost all areas. Max temps on Wed will be 10 to 15 degrees
over normal with vly highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. The
stronger onshore push on Thursday will bring 2 to 4 degrees of
cooling to most cst/vly locations while most of the interior will
warm a few more degrees. Despite the cooling all max temps will
remain well above normal.

The ridge flattens out on Friday and max temps will continue to
cool. Some coastal stratus is possible also esp along the Central
Coast.

A trof will approach the area on Saturday and hgts will fall to
574 dam. Onshore flow to the east bumps up nicely and the offshore
push from the north weakens considerably. More marine layer
clouds are likely across the coasts in the morning. Max temps will
fall 4 to 8 degrees across the area. Most of the csts and lower
vlys will see below normal temps (upper 60s to mid 70s) while
above normal temps will continue for the rest of the vlys and the
interior (upper 70s and lower 80s)

&&

.AVIATION...06/1141Z.

At 0902Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a sfc
based inversion with a top of 1400 and a temp of 19 C.

High confidence in TAFs. There is a 10% chance of LIFR cig/vis at
KSMX thru 17Z Sun, and 30% chance after 04Z Mon. There is a 30%
chance of IFR conds at KLAX 12Z-17Z Mon.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF through 11Z Mon, then moderate
confidence. There is a 30% chance of 4SM BR and BKN005-010
12Z-17Z Mon. High confidence in any east wind component remaining
below 8 kts.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...06/449 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Local Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are
lingering around the Channel Islands early this morning, and will
likely subside by mid-morning. Late this afternoon through Friday,
there is a 60-80% chance for a combination of SCA level winds and
seas. However, for PZZ670 (north of Point Sal), SCA level winds
will likely be most widespread starting Tuesday. There is a 20%
chance of localized Gale Force wind gusts around the Northern
Channel Islands down to San Nicolas Island Tuesday and Thursday
during the afternoon/evening hours-with higher chances on Friday
(20-30%).

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. For the remainder of the weekend, winds and
seas will generally remain below SCA criteria. Although, there may
be some localized SCA level NW wind gusts near Port San Luis and
NW portions of PZZ645 this afternoon into the early evening hours
(30-40% chance). From Monday through Friday, there is a 50-80%
chance of SCA winds during the afternoon/eve hours each day, and a
30-40% chance of SCA level seas near 10 feet through Wednesday
morning.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate
confidence in current forecast. There is a 60% chance of SCA
level W winds in western/southern portions of the Santa Barbara
Channel during the evening hours through late night. Then, there
is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds for western portions of SBA
Channel on Monday and Tuesday, with low chances on Wednesday.

&&

.BEACHES...06/453 AM.

A moderate to long period west-northwest swell will bring
elevated surf conditions to portions of Southwest California
Sunday evening through early Tuesday. Peak surf heights will be 4
to 7 feet in Ventura County, and 7 to 11 feet along the Central
Coast.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PDT Tuesday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Monday to 3 AM PDT
      Tuesday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Black/Lund
BEACHES...Black/Lund
SYNOPSIS...Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox