059
FXUS66 KLOX 060236
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
736 PM PDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...05/733 PM.

Temperatures will warm up to 4 to 8 degrees above normal
Wednesday and Thursday, especially away from the immediate coast.
Smoke from the Gifford fire will likely cause some air quality
issues at times. A slight cooling trend is expected over the
weekend but temperatures will remain above normal away from the
immediate coast well into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...05/736 PM.

***UPDATE***

Not much to mention this evening. The forecast remains on track.
Other than some high clouds and smoke from the Gifford Fire,
expect minimal clouds tonight into Wednesday. Low clouds are
likely to return to the Central Coast, including the Santa Ynez
Valley and the LA County coast around or a couple hours after
midnight. Additionally, there is a chance of low clouds over the
Oxnard Plain later tonight. Other than some sub- advisory
sundowners and gusty winds across the Antelope Valley & adjacent
foothills, benign conditions are expected through tonight.

Highs today were in the 80s to upper 90s away from the coast, with
70s along the coast south of Point Conception, and mainly 60s for
the Central Coast. Highs are expected to bump up 3 to 6 degrees on
Wednesday.

***From Previous Discussion***

The warming trend has begun on schedule and expected to continue
through Thursday with only very minor cooling Friday. Overall
highs today have been 2-4 degrees warmer than Monday and expecting
a similar increase Wed and again Thursday when highs will peak
around 104 in the warmer valleys, 100-106 in the AV, and 80s to
low 90s in the intermediate areas like Downtown LA, and interior
parts of the Central Coast. While these temperatures are 4-8
degrees above normal, that`s not quite enough to push heat risk
values into the advisory category so for now no heat advisories
are expected with this event. Coastal areas expected to stay in
the 60s and 70s with areas of low clouds and fog mainly in the
morning.

Overall mostly light winds through the period except for locally
breezy Sundowner winds across southwest Santa Barbara County the
next few evenings and typical afternoon and evening winds across
the AV. There will be some smoke impacts at times, especially
across Santa Barbara County and northern SLO County.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...05/221 PM.

And additional 2-5 degrees of cooling is expected Saturday as high
pressure aloft continues to weaken. This will bring temperatures
back to +/- 2 degrees of normal. After that, very little day to
day changes in the weather conditions across the area with the
usual night and morning low clouds for most coast and some lower
valleys. Most of the ensembles suggest near normal temperatures
through next week and possibly even into the following week with
no strong signals for a return of monsoon conditions. So overall
the first couple weeks of August look very quiet weather-wise

&&

.AVIATION...05/2342Z.

At 2234Z, the marine layer depth was around 700 feet at KLAX. The
top of the inversion was around 2200 feet with a temp of 27 C.

High confidence in VFR conditions at airfields: KPRB, KBUR, KVNY,
KPMD, and KWJF.

Moderate to low confidence in remaining TAFs. Vis reductions
possible at KSBP, KSMX, and KSBA due to FU from Gifford Fire with
best chc for MVFR vsbys at KSBA.

Most uncertain about whether or not CIGs arrive at KSBP (25%),
KOXR (30%), KCMA (15%), & KSMO (40%).

Arrival and departure of CIGs may be off by 2 hours with minimum
cig heights off by +/- 200 ft.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Arrival and departure of CIGs
may be off by 2 hours with minimum cig heights off by +/- 200 ft.
No significant easterly wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through the fcst period.

&&

.MARINE...05/733 PM.

For the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and short
period seas will continue through early Thursday night, and
likely through Friday night. There will be a relative lull in
winds during the morning hours with some portions falling below
SCA level winds. There is a 60% chance SCA level winds will
continue across the Outer Waters south of Point Conception through
Friday evening. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
criteria over the weekend.

For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, SCA level winds
will continue through late tonight. There is a 30-40% chance of
SCA level winds Wednesday afternoon/eve, and a 60% chance on
Thursday afternoon/eve. Conditions are expected to remain below
SCA over the weekend.

Isolated SCA level wind gusts are possible across the western
portion of the Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon and evening
through Friday. Local SCA wind gusts may develop each afternoon
and evening near Point Dume and across the San Pedro Channel thru
the weekend. Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain below
SCA criteria through the weekend across the waters inside the
southern California bight.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Black/CS
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox