


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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477 FXUS66 KLOX 030000 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 500 PM PDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS...02/101 PM. Generally dry weather expected through tonight except for some light snow showers at times near the Grapevine. Unsettled weather will return Thursday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms possible and periods of heavy rain near storms. Mostly dry weather on Friday but a 5 to 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms across eastern Los Angeles County. Dry weather is expected over the weekend and all of next week, with significant warming beginning Friday, and well above normal temperatures next Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 90s expected across the valleys. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...02/202 PM. A large upper level trough continues to engulf most of the western US with an upper low moving into AZ. Showers have been less frequent today and mostly just near the Grapevine region with moderate northwest flow pushing moisture up the north facing slopes. Can`t rule out a stray shower through early evening but best chances for those will remain over the mountains. Also getting some fast moving showers developing across eastern SLO County this afternoon and moving towards the Cuyama valley and the northern Santa Barbara County mountains. Not expecting any thunderstorms but some brief moderate showers are possible through the early evening. Otherwise, mainly dry weather with gusty west to northwest winds through this evening. The trough will only move slightly east Thursday, and with some additional upper level energy moving into southern California and increasing instability, chances for showers and even some thunderstorms are much higher tomorrow than today. Hi res models really focus the precip over the Transverse range through the San Gabriel Mountains, and then spilling down into the valleys and possibly some of the coastal areas. Morning conditions will generally be clear across the area but will quickly cloud over in the afternoon with showers developing. Hourly rain rates in the heaviest storms could reach a half inch, though in most cases storms will only last 20-30 minutes over any one location as the steering flow will be towards the southeast at around 30kt. Snow levels are expected to stay above 5000 feet so no additional snow expected on Interstate 5 but possibly an inch or two at higher elevations. The trough will finally be exiting the area Friday, but there`s still some lingering upper level energy coming through during the afternoon. However, moisture drops off and most of the instability is farther east and south. Have left rain chances out for now but will re-evaluate this with the hi res models tomorrow. Dry and warmer weather expected Saturday with highs 4-8 degrees warmer than Friday .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...02/158 PM. Next week looks quite warm, especially inland and warmest on Wednesday. A fast moving ridge moves through the area over the weekend but gets knocked down Monday as an upper low moves into the Pac NW. So after a couple days of warming temperatures look for Monday to a little cooler, but still a few degrees above normal in most areas. A stronger high pressure ridge returns Tuesday and especially Wednesday. With models also showing gradients either near neutral or slightly offshore, temperatures across the interior coastal plain and especially the valleys will warm up several more degrees, likely reaching the at least the mid 90s for the warmest valleys, with a around a 5-10% chance of Woodland Hills reaching 100. && .AVIATION...02/2357Z. At around 00Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion. High confidence in the forecast. Gusty west to northwest winds will affect most terminals through at least 08Z. -SHRA may impact KPRB, KSMX, and KSBA through 06Z this evening. There is a moderate chance of moderate turbulence with LLWS into late tonight. There is a 20% chance of IFR conds at KPRB overnight. There is a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms to impact the mountains and valleys in eastern VTA County and LA county after 18Z through the remainder of the period. Any thunderstorms could produce gusty and erratic winds, +RA, low visibilities, and lightning. KLAX...High confidence in TAF. Gusty west winds are expected through 06Z. There is a 30 percent chance of low to moderate LLWS and turbulence through 06Z. There is less than 10% chance for thunderstorms to develop over the terminal from 18Z through 06Z. There is a 40% chance of an east wind component reaching 8 kt between 13Z and 18Z. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. There is a 15% chance for thunderstorms to develop over the terminal from 18Z through the end of the period. && .MARINE...02/1252 PM. High confidence in the current forecast. Hazardous marine conditions will continue through late tonight or early Thursday morning. Winds will likely be at or near GALE force levels through late tonight, with the highest chances across the southern waters and across the southern California bight. Steep, hazardous seas will continue across all the waters through Thursday morning, however, will start to diminish after this evening. Then, there is a 60-80 percent chance Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conds continue through at least Friday evening, across the waters along the Central Coast and south past San Nicolas Island, including the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel. However, a brief lull may occur during Friday morning. Winds will diminish below SCA levels Friday night through Saturday, with a 30 percent chance of weak SCA winds Saturday night and 30 percent chance of stronger winds Sunday afternoon through early next week. Dense fog may develop this upcoming weekend, especially in the evening to morning hours, in response to a ridge building over the region. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory now in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for zones 87-349>355-362-366>371-376>383. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for zones 340-341-346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 4 AM PDT Thursday for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 645-650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Lewis MARINE...Hall/Lund SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox