


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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399 FXUS66 KLOX 031656 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 956 AM PDT Thu Apr 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS...03/956 AM. Showers are likely today with possible thunderstorms across the mountains and spilling into the valleys and even parts of the coast. Though some areas, especially the coastal areas, will remain dry. Dry weather is expected starting Friday and lasting through next week. A strong warming trend will begin Friday and will continue through late next week with only a one day break on Monday. Well above normal temperatures are very likely next Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 90s expected across the valleys. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...03/952 AM. ***UPDATE*** No changes to the current forecast. Already starting to see some small cumulus developing across LA County coast and valley areas which is good sign that there will be at least some shower activity by this afternoon. HREF still indicating the potential for as much as a half inch per hour across the northern San Fernando Valley and San Gabriel Valley as the storms make their way south from the mountains. CAPE values between 400-600 J/km are pretty high for our area and certainly worth paying close attention to. Thunderstorms are a strong possibility as well with gusty winds and possibly small hail as well. Wouldn`t want to totally exclude those rates from other areas but certainly confidence is a little higher there due to the mountain proximity and at least a few consistent runs favoring that area. Outside of those areas, lighter showers are expected all the way from the Central Coast through Santa Barbara County, the Ventura Mountains and spilling over into the northern Ventura County valleys, the Santa Monican Mountains, as well as Downtown LA and possibly even towards the coast. ***From Previous Discussion*** Ydy`s showers have tapered off. Quite a bit of cloudiness remains over SLO and SBA counties with VTA and LA counties under clear skies. The persistent upper low over NV will finally begin to move to the east. It will, however, deliver one last shot of PVA and instability to the region this afternoon and early evening. Due the eastward progress of the low this afternoon`s activity will be focused over Nrn VTA county and most of LA county. The best chc of convective activity will be over the mtns but there is a 25 percent chc that the showers or TSTMs will move off of the mtns and into the vlys and perhaps into DTLA. Rainfall rates under the heavier showers will be near a half inch per hour. The storms will be moving along at a decent clip pushed along with about a 30 mph upper level flow. This means that any one cell will not likely produce any hydrologic problems. There is, however, a chance that multiple cells will train over a single area and this could create some flooding issues. Snow levels will be near 5000 ft but could lower to 4000 ft under a heavy convective burst. The clouds and showers over LA county will linger into the evening but then will diminish. A ridge will slowly build into the area on Friday and Saturday. Weak offshore flow will develop as well. Skies will be mostly clear through the period. The rising hgts, offshore flow and early April sunshine will all combine to bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming each day. Below normal temperatures will continue on Friday but Saturday`s warming will bring most temps up to 2 to 3 degrees over normal. Highs Saturday across the csts and vlys will mostly be in the 70s with an outside chc of lower 80s in the warmest vly locations. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...03/321 AM. The xtnd forecast is all about the heat. The ridge will peak on Sunday and then will be knocked down some on Monday as a trof passes well to north. The lower hgts will make Monday the only day of the 4 that does not see warming temps. A stronger ridge builds in starting Tuesday and continues through Thursday. Weak offshore flow will continue through the period. Skies will be mostly clear. The forecast does not contain any low clouds but there is 20 to 30 percent chc of some clouds each morning esp over Srn LA county and western SBA county. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of warming on Sunday which will push vly temps into the lower 80s with isolated mid 80s. 3 to 6 degrees of cooling is slated for Monday with the trof and some onshore flow. Then the serious warming begins with 3 to 6 degrees of warming Tue and 4 to 8 additional degrees on Wed. Most temps on Wed will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with mostly mid 70s to lower 80s near the coast and mid to upper 80s further inland. The vlys will be in the upper 80s through the mid 90s. && .AVIATION...03/1557Z. At 1545Z at KLAX, there was no marine inversion or marine layer. Moderate to high confidence in 18Z TAF package. Overall, high confidence in VFR conditions for all sites through the period, but there will be a 20-30% chance of MVFR/IFR conditions 08Z-17Z at KSMO/KLAX/KLGB. There is a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms 20Z-04Z across the mountains of LA and Ventura counties and any showers or thunderstorms that develop could drift over coastal/valley sites across Ventura/LA counties. KLAX...Overall, high confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 10-15% chance of showers and thunderstorms 20Z-03Z. For tonight, there is a 20-30% chance of MVFR/IFR CIGs/VSBYs 08Z-17Z. No significant easterly wind is expected. KBUR...Overall, high confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms 20Z-03Z. && .MARINE...03/857 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday night, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds. On Saturday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds continuing. On Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds developing. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For Saturday and Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Monday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 60-70% chance of SCA level winds late this afternoon evening then a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds late Friday afternoon and evening. Otherwise across the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Monday. Dense fog may develop this upcoming weekend, especially in the evening to morning hours, in response to a ridge building over the region. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Rorke AVIATION...RAT MARINE...RAT SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox