356
FXUS66 KLOX 101124
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
324 AM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...10/226 AM.

Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue across the Southland this
morning. Another round of gusty north to northeast winds will
develop Sunday, then a stronger offshore wind event is possible
between Monday night and Wednesday. Otherwise, dry weather is
expected at least through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...10/306 AM.

Today`s Santa Ana is on track. It is a moderate wind event driven
by a 5 mb offshore push from the east. The north push is not
strong at all and this will create winds with a greater easterly
direction. The 850 mb are fairly strong, however, and this will
also bring some winds to the more N/S oriented passes and
canyons. The current suite of wind products looks good with 60 to
70 mph gusts confined to the mtns where warnings are in effect.
The warning for the Santa Clarita Vly has not verified yet but 60
mph gusts will likely develop after sunrise. The rest of the
csts/vlys will see gusts between 40 and 55 mph strongest through
and below passes and canyons. Like a typical Santa Ana this one
will only last through the morning. Wind gusts will quickly
diminish around noon. Other than the winds there is not much to
talk about... sunny skies (except where there is smoke). Most
areas will cool some as the offshore flow will be much weaker this
afternoon, but max temps will remain well above normal.

A little north wind event will develop tonight as high pressure
builds into the San Joaquin Vly. Advisory level gusts are possible
through the i-5 corridor and the western SBA south coast. Wind
sheltered areas away from the coasts will see lower than normal
temps with freezing or near freezing temps possible across the far
interior.

Another little inside slider zips down the CA/NV border on
Saturday and this will lower the hgts. At the sfc offshore flow
will remain but it will not be strong enough to produce advisory
gusts just some NE 15 to 25 mph canyon winds. The lower hgts and
weaker offshore flow will combine to lower most max temps by 3 to
6 degrees. Despite this cooling almost all max temps will remain
above normal and will come in a couple degrees either side of 70
across the csts/vlys.

As is almost always the cast the inside slider will usher in yet
another Santa Ana. Offshore flow from the E will increase to 6 or
7 mb while the north push will be near 4 mb. 850 mb winds turn to
the NE as well and will increase to between 40 and 50 mph. Look
for a classic Santa Ana with the main wind axis to extend from
the mtns NE of Santa Clarita to far western Santa Monicas. Wind
Advisories are a given with gusts between 40 and 50 mph. Cannot
rule out a need for some low end warnings esp in the Santa Susana
mtns and western Santa Monicas. Like most January Santa Anas the
cold air moving in from the interior will overwhelm the
compressional heat component of the event and max temps will cool
3 to 6 through out most of the area. Like today`s event this
Sunday wind event will only last to late morning or early
afternoon.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...10/322 AM.

The offshore gradients weaken Monday. There will be sub advisory
canyon winds in the morning but nothing too dangerous. A slightly
sharper trof will move out of the north of the state and lower
hgts to about 560 dam. These lower hgts will lead to a 2 to 3
degree cooling trend.

Unfortunately the trof passage will reinvigorate the offshore flow
with 5 to 7 mb of offshore flow possible from the east and about 4
mb from north. This offshore push will combine with strong NE
winds at the 850 mb level and produce a moderate to strong Santa
Ana event. Right now it looks like Tuesday will be the strongest
day. Unlike this weeks very dangerous event which was more of a
northerly wind event this one is very likely to be a tradition NE
Santa Ana event. Still the low humidities and the winds will
combine to bring enhanced fire danger to the area.

Residents are urged to stay tuned to latest information and
remain vigilant in steps to protect your life and property.

Thursday is an interesting day as an upper low will be off the
coast. It will keep the offshore flow going (although much weaker
than Tue or Wed). But there is a 30 percent chc that it will pick
up enough moisture to bring some very light rain to the southern
portions of LA county. Rainfall if any, unfortunately, will be
trivial.

&&

.AVIATION...10/0549Z.

At 0405Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surfaced
based inversion with a top at 3100 ft with a temperature of 15 C.

High confidence in KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, KSBA, KPMD, KWJF, KLGB.
Moderate confidence in all others. Smoke from nearby fires may
cause MVFR/IFR conds thru mid morning for KSMO, KLAX, KVNY, and
KBUR. Winds changes may be off by 3 hours and gusts off by +/- 10
kt at any one time. There will be areas of mdt turbulence and
LLWS, with mdt UDDF at times through 19Z, over and near higher
terrain in LA/Ventura County.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30-40%
chance of 4SM FU BKN025 conds thru 18Z due to nearby fires. There
is a 10% chance of an east wind component up to 8kt from 09Z-17Z
Fri.

KBUR...Fairly high confidence in VFR conds thru the period. There
is a 15% chance of 4SM FU BKN025 due to nearby fires through 18Z.
Lower confidence in wind fcst. Timing of wind changes could be
off by +/- 3 hours and there could be ocnl 36012kt winds through
14Z. Brief mdt turbc is possible thru 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...09/820 PM.

Across the inner waters south of Pt. Conception, NE-E winds will
increase to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels for portions of
PZZ650/655 this evening lasting into Friday morning. For PZZ650,
the N-NE offshore winds will be confined to the eastern portion
of the SBA channel, with the strongest winds nearshore from
Ventura to Point Mugu extending out to Santa Cruz Island. There is
a 40% chance of GALE force wind gusts, mainly closest to shore and
around Point Mugu.

For PZZ655, the N-NE offshore winds will be strongest nearshore from
Point Mugu to Mailbu with local gusts to 35 kt, and a 30% chance
of GALE force wind gusts to extend offshore enough to result in a
warning needing to be issued. There is a 60% chance of SCA level
winds in the San Pedro Channel.

Across the Outer Waters, NE-E offshore winds are expected to
increase to SCA levels late this evening for portions of PZZ676,
especially around the Channel Islands, lasting through Friday
morning. There is a 10-20% of GALE force wind gusts. Elsewhether
and otherwise, SCA conds are likely (60% chance) Sat thru Sun due
to winds and seas. Seas will likely be near or above SCA levels
Sun night thru Mon night.

Across the inner waters north of Pt. Sal, SCA conds are not
expected thru Mon night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...09/429 PM.

...HIGH END RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

.Critical Red Flag fire weather conditions will continue across
much of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through Friday due to
moderate to strong Santa Ana winds and low humidities. While winds
had diminished some last night, they have increased in strength
and areal coverage today, and will continue through early Friday
morning. The strongest winds tonight into early Friday morning
will be across the mountains (including the Santa Susanas and
Santa Monicas) and Santa Clarita Valley, where damaging wind gusts
of 55 to 65 mph can be expected, except isolated gusts 65 to 75
mph in the San Gabriels, Santa Susanas, and western Santa Monica
mountains. The gusty Santa Ana winds have also overspread many of
the typical wind prone coastal and valley areas in LA/Ventura
counties, with gusts in the 35 to 55 mph range. With the enhanced
upper level wind support through tonight, there will be some
breezy conditions across portions of the LA Basin, especially the
west side of LA coast and Hollywood Hills. Humidity values between
5 and 15 percent will be common today and Friday across the Red
Flag Warning area, with poor overnight recoveries under 20 percent
in windy areas tonight. The increased Santa Ana winds today into
Friday morning will bring high end Red Flag conditions to the wind
prone mountains and valleys of Los Angeles and Ventura counties,
as well as the Malibu coast. The offshore winds are expected to
diminish on Friday afternoon, with an onshore wind shift likely
across many coastal and coastal valley areas.

Offshore winds are expected to weaken on Saturday. An extended
period of elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions
are in the forecast for Sunday through Wednesday due to moderate
to locally strong offshore winds, likely peaking on Tuesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Warning remains in effect until 2 PM PST this
      afternoon for zones 88-375>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 354-355-358-362-371>374-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Frost Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PST this morning
      for zone 357. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning now in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 369-370. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM PST this evening for
      zones 288-354-355-358-362-368>380-548. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Saturday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zone
      655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM
      PST Sunday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Sunday for zone
      676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Black/Lund
FIRE...Gomberg
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox