295
FXUS66 KLOX 040320
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
820 PM PDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...03/811 PM.

Temperatures will hover at or just below normal through Tuesday,
then warm up sharply Wednesday and Thursday to around 10 degrees
above normal especially inland of the coast. Limited low clouds
and fog likely through Monday or Tuesday. Gusty Sundowner and I-5
winds to continue through Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...03/819 PM.

***UPDATE***

Updated the sky and weather through Monday evening to account for
the recent large scale erosion of the stratus from the Central
Coast through Ventura County. Still expecting some stratus to
reform overnight into Monday, but will be much more limited in
coverage compared to the last few weeks. Tuesday may be similarly
limited. If the clouds remain limited at the start of our warm up
on Wednesday, coastal areas would end up being noticeably warmer
than the current forecast suggests. Otherwise, the warm up remains
on track for Wednesday and Thursday and the current forecast
numbers look good.

The expected northwest wind push has arrived, with wind gusts
over Gaviota currently checking in at 54 mph and Refugio at 46
mph. All indications are for these Sundowner winds to expand into
the eastern range overnight, as the recent uptick in wind gusts to
39 mph over the San Marcos Pass suggests. Winds are also starting
to pick up from the I-5 Corridor to the Tehachapi Mountains.
Similar winds are on track for Monday Night, albeit likely a touch
weaker.

***From Previous Discussion***

Latest satellite imagery indicating areas of low clouds and fog
lingering across the immediate coastal areas of Santa Barbara
and Ventura counties. Otherwise, areas of smoke continue
across the region from the large Gifford Fire in Santa Barbara
county, with the smoke most abundant across Santa Barbara and
southern San Luis Obispo counties. Current marine layer depth
ranging between 1000 and 1500 feet today, with model cross
sections not showing much change tonight into Monday. With fairly
low and strong inversion in place, there is the potential for
patchy dense fog across coastal areas, mainly north of Point
Conception tonight.

Main weather story in the short term will be gusty northwest to
north winds. One focus area will be strengthening sundowner winds
across southern Santa Barbara county later this afternoon into
tonight, where a wind advisory is in effect. The projected Santa
Barbara to Santa Maria gradient is expected to be -4.5 mb this
evening. The strongest winds will be focused from Gaviota to San
Marcos Pass, with gusts in the 35 to 50 mph range. However later
this evening and overnight, expecting some northerly winds to
shift into the eastern Santa Ynez range with gusts in the 25 to 40
mph range. These sundowner winds will be accompanied with warm
temperatures in the 80s and moderately low humidities, causing
elevated fire weather conditions. Another sundowner wind event is
expected for Monday evening but this will not be as strong or as
widespread as tonight`s event. A second focus areas of gusty
northwest to northeast winds through tonight will be the interior
mountains of Santa Barbara and Ventura counties (gusting 20-35
mph) and especially the I-5 corridor and western Antelope Valley
where gusts will be in the 25 to 45 mph range. These winds
combined with low humidities will bring elevated to brief critical
fire weather conditions for these areas, with the highest risk
near the I-5 corridor.

Another warm day across the interior with highs in the 90 to 100
degree range. Little change in these temperatures Monday into
Tuesday. Much cooler closer to the coast due to the persistent
onshore flow and marine layer influence.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...03/213 PM.

A significant warming trend will begin Wednesday as an upper level
high pressure system strengthens and moves westward. Heights will
increase to between 594 and 595 dam. There is the potential
that this could be an extended heat wave from Wednesday into
Monday (August 6-11). At this time, looking like Thursday and
Friday will likely be the hottest days, with highs across the
interior ranging between 97 and 107 degrees. By Thursday, heat
advisory headlines will be likely, with a small chance (20-30%) a
few zones could reach warning levels. There is some uncertainty
how much heat will linger next weekend, but some ensemble
solutions hold onto triple digit heat across parts of the
interior. Furthermore, long range guidance shows another potential
uptick in temperatures on day 8 (Monday August 11th) as the upper
level ridge strengthens once again. The highest confidence in
this heat wave will be across the valleys, mountains, and deserts.
The continued steady onshore flow will likely keep temperatures
moderated near the coast, however downtown LA could approach 90
degrees during the peak of the heat. Any lingering marine layer
influence is expected to be quite shallow during the heat wave,
increasing the potential for some dense fog across coastal areas,
especially if smoke from the Gifford Fire continues to linger
later in the week. The increased heat will also bring elevated
fire weather conditions across the valleys, mountains, and
deserts, with an increased risk of large vertical plume growth
with any new fires, similar to what we are currently seeing with
the Gifford Fire.

&&

.AVIATION...03/2347Z.

At 2236Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2300 feet with a temperature of 25 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields KWJF/KPMD.

***Major Changes from previous 18Z TAF Package***

Took low clouds out of several sites: KSBP, KSBA, KCMA, & KSMO.
There is a 10% chance of LIFR/IFR CIGs at KPRB from 10Z-16Z Mon.
Radiation FG is possible to likely at KSMX, <20% chc of not
developing. There is a 30-40% chance of no CIGs materializing at
KOXR thru fcst pd.

Intermittent vis reduction due to smoke will be possible at KSMX,
KSBP, and KSBA (best chc) through the period.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Arrival and departure of
CIGs may be off by 2 hours and flight minimums by one category.
There is a 10% chance of no CIGs. No significant easterly wind
component expected through forecast period.

KBUR...Good confidence in 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...03/759 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. High confidence in widespread Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) winds through Wednesday, with GALE Force wind gusts likely
this evening through the late night hours, strongest across the
waters north of Point Sal (PZZ670). GALE force wind gusts are
possible to likely again Monday afternoon into the late night
hours across the same general areas. There is a moderate chance
that a GALE Warning will be issued during that timeframe.

Seas are expected to hover around SCA levels across much of the
Outer Waters this evening through late Monday night. Next weekend
looks to be much quieter in regard to seas and winds, but will
continue to monitor for any changes.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. High confidence in SCA level
winds during the afternoon and evening hours through Tuesday, with
Gale Force wind gusts likely across the NW portion this evening.
And possibly again Monday evening. There is a 30-40% chance of
SCA level winds on Wednesday and Thursday, likely followed by
benign conditions heading into next weekend.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. SCA level winds are expected
during the late afternoon and evening hours across the Santa
Barbara Channel (strongest across western portion) through Monday.
Lower chance on Tuesday. Otherwise and elsewhere, good confidence
in winds and seas remaining below SCA criteria through Thursday.

Tropical Storm Gil, currently south of Cabo San Lucas, will
generate a ~12 second south swell of 2 to 4 feet into Monday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 AM PDT Monday for
      zone 352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones
      645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 1 AM PDT Monday for zone
      650. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Gomberg/Kittell
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox