982
FXUS66 KLOX 280607
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1107 PM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...27/908 PM.

The remnants from rapidly weakening Tropical Storm Juliette will
drift over the region through Friday. More humid but cooler
conditions are expected for the southern areas on Thursday.
Showers are possible, mainly from Los Angeles County south and
east. Elsewhere, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. High
pressure aloft reestablishing and building back into the Four
Corners Region will bring warming over the weekend and into early
next week. A monsoonal flow may persist for periods of time into
late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...27/933 PM.

The latest satellite shows rapidly weakening Tropical Storm
Juliette sitting about 700 miles south of Point Conception. A
large plume of moisture can be seen stretching out to the
northeast into extreme southwestern California. The moisture will
continue to move into the region with middle and high level
cloudiness spreading into the southern areas overnight and
Thursday. A majority of the latest high-resolution ensembles
show most of the precipitation remaining south of the area, but
showers moving farther to the north into Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties cannot be ruled out entirely. Not much changes in the way
of changes were made to the PoPs forecast, but the evolution will
need to be watched closely overnight and into Thursday.

***From Previous Discussion***

This is always a tricky forecast with decaying tropical systems
and whether we will get any precipitation from it. For most of the
area, even across the Central Coast, skies will be mostly cloudy
with bases at or above 15,000 feet. Models are indicating a rather
dry pattern at lower levels and it will be difficult for rain to
survive the trip down to the surface. However, given past history
with decaying tropical systems, the deterministic models ofter
underestimate rain chances and have decided to lean strongly
towards the higher res solutions like the REFS which does indicate
some light precip across LA County and even into Ventura County,
with the best chances starting mid-morning Thursday around the
Long Beach area, then spreading north and slightly west in the
afternoon. Amounts would be light, mostly under a tenth of an
inch, except possibly up to a quarter inch in the mountains with
less dry air to fall through.

For now thunderstorms have been left out of the forecast as skies
will be mostly cloudy and storm initiation will be difficult. But
here too models often underestimate tropical systems moving into
southern California so for now the forecast is for about a 10%
chance of high based thunderstorms. The biggest concern there
would be for dry lightning striking dry brush with some areas of
humidities under 15%.

Showers chances are expected to continue into Thursday evening
then drop off by Friday morning as most of what`s left of Juliette
moves off to the northeast. Friday will be a another tricky call
with regard to temperatures as often the post-tropical environment
can still be quite warm and humid. Have bumped up temperatures a
few degrees for Friday with some valleys around 100 and coastal
areas away from the coast in the 80s and 90s. Have also added a
small chance of thunderstorms across the eastern San Gabriels
Friday afternoon.

Another warm day expected Saturday, but with decreasing humidity.
It may take a few days before stratus redevelops south of Pt
Conception.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...27/203 PM.

A slight cooling trend is expected next week, though there remains
higher than normal uncertainty in the forecast beyond next Monday
as some model solutions are indicating another surge of monsoon
moisture as early as next Tuesday. Officially the forecast is for
temperatures to return back to normal levels by around mid week
with stratus making a slow return to coastal areas.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0557Z.

At 0510Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a sfc based
inversion with a top of 2000 ft and a temp of 23 C.

Good confidence in TAFs. There is 15 percent chc of light rain
for sites KSBA and southward after 12Z (increasing to 20 percent
after 18Z for KSMO, KLAX and KLGB)

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF. There is 15 percent chc of light
rain aft 12Z increasing to 20 percent after 18Z. There is a 30
percent chc of BKN060 conds after 18Z. Good confidence that any
east wind component will be under 5KT.

KBUR...Good confidence in TAF. There is 15 percent chc of light
rain aft 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...27/852 PM.

High confidence in relatively light winds and small seas through
at least Friday morning, except for localized northwest wind gusts
of 20 to 25 knots from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island
each afternoon and evening. There is also some uncertainty in
winds Thursday over the waters south of the Channel Islands, and
the area could see more south to easterly winds than forecast.
High confidence in increasing northwest winds and seas beyond 20
miles from shore Friday through Labor Day Weekend.

Remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Juliette will bring a slight
chance of showers and potentially thunderstorms to the coastal
waters between San Nicolas Island and the Santa Monica Bay and
south from Thursday morning through early Friday morning. Additionally,
a southerly swell from Juliette will arrive Thursday and continue
into Saturday. A longer period but lower height southerly swell
from the Southern Hemisphere will follow and continue into early
next week. Hazardous rip currents will be common across the beach
of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties over Labor Weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...27/142 PM.

A southerly swell from Tropical Storm Juliette will arrive
Thursday and continue into Saturday. A longer period but lower
height southerly swell from the Southern Hemisphere will follow
and continue into early next week. Hazardous rip currents are
likely into next week. Elevated surf will occur along south facing
beaches in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, especially along the
Malibu Coast.

If you are at the beach this Labor Day Weekend, swim near a
lifeguard tower and stay aware of ocean conditions.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall/MW
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Phillips/Lewis
BEACHES...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox