152
FXUS66 KLOX 271733
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
933 AM PST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...27/916 AM.

Dry weather will continue at least through the middle of next
week. Well above normal temperatures are expected again on
Thanksgiving Day before cooling develops over the weekend as an
upper low approaches the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...27/932 AM.

***UPDATE***

Another warm day on tap with offshore flow but weakening through
the day. High clouds have moved into the area but coverage is
spotty and not likely to have much impact on resulting
temperatures. With this in mind it looks like highs will be
closer to the higher end expectations today, and generally withing
5 degrees of yesterday`s highs. Areas within a few miles of the
coast will notice the biggest change as the sea breeze starts
earlier, while farther inland areas will be similar to yesterday.

***From Previous Discussion***

Very little excitement for the short term. A weak ridge will
slowly slide off to the east today and hgts will fall from 582
dam to about 579 dam during the day. More importantly a grip of
high clouds will move overhead bring mostly cloudy skies to the
area. Probably most importantly the offshore flow will only be
half as strong as it was on Wednesday. The clouds, lowering hgts
and reduced offshore flow will all conspire to lower max temps by
3 to 6 degrees. The only question is how thick the clouds will be
if they are thinner than fcst max temps will be warmer than fcst.

Dry NW flow sets up an Friday and continues into Saturday. Hgts
will fall to about 569 dam. The high clouds will push off and
skies will be sunny. By Saturday a coastal marine layer stratus
deck will likely form.

Max temps on Friday will cool 5 to 10 degrees across the coasts
with a return to onshore flow to the east in the afternoon as well
as the lower hgts. Much sunnier skies will lead to 3 to 6 degrees
of warming for the mtns and interior even with the slightly lower
hgts. A few more degrees of cooling is on tap on Saturday with the
deeper marine layer and a continued lowering of hgts. Despite the
two days of cooling max temps away from the coasts will remain
above normal.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...27/1230 AM.

Any chance of rain on Sunday has evaporated. Mdls solidly in
agreement that an inside slider. There will be weak offshore flow
from the north and weak onshore flow to the east. The weak lift
from the trof and the onshore flow will likely bring another round
of morning low clouds to most of the csts, although the northerly
offshore flow should keep the SBA south coast clear. The cooling
trend will continue and most cst/vly max temps will end up in the
60s.

Northerly flow aloft sets up on Monday. There will also be weak
offshore flow from both the north and east. It will be breezy, but
unless the gradients pick up, the winds should remain blo advisory
levels. The switch to weak offshore flow will bring some warming
to the csts/vlys. Cool air advection from the interior will cool
the mtns and Antelope Vly.

Very little to talk about on Tuesday. At the upper levels an upper
level trof will begin to take shape over Idaho. Max temps will
change little from Monday`s values.

From Wednesday through the end of the week there is quite a range
of possible outcomes. The mdls are struggling with the evolution
of the trof/upper low retrograding into and over CA. The most
likely scenario will be dry and cooler but there are several
wetter and even a couple much wetter solutions as well.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1717Z.

Around 1614Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a sfc-
based inversion with a top near 800 ft and a temperature of 23 C.

Overall, high confidence in 18Z TAF Package. Except for KPRB which
has a 40% chc of V/LIFR conditions from 12Z to 17Z Friday, & KLGB
with similar odds of LIFR conditions from 12Z to 16Z Friday.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR TAF through 12Z Friday. low chance
(10%) of LIFR CIGs 13Z-18Z Friday. Good confidence in any east
wind component remaining below 7-8 knots through forecast period.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...27/739 AM.

***UPDATE***

Guidance has backed off a bit on winds and seas for this weekend.
However, it is still adamant on a Coastal Jet developing on
Friday impacting our northern waters (PZZ670). Stay tuned for
afternoon update.

***From Previous Discussion***

Conditions will remain relatively mild through the day. However,
localized gusty offshore winds will affect the nearshore waters
from Cayucos to Morro Bay and from Point Mugu to Topanga Beach
this morning.

Across the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and/or
seas are expected starting Friday morning and persisting at times
through the weekend. Periods of Sub-SCA conditions are probable,
especially within 10 to 30NM from the shore and during the morning
hours. Chances for SCA conditions within 5NM are low, but highest
on Friday, and near Point Conception. Moderate confidence in seas
increasing to around SCA levels of 10 ft Friday through at least
the weekend, if not the middle of next week, with brief dips below
10 ft at times.

Across the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions are
likely to remain below SCA levels through the weekend. Moderate
confidence in seas peaking at 4 to 6 feet across the Santa
Barbara Channel this weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...KL/Black
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox