208
FXUS66 KLOX 071913
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1113 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...07/1212 AM.

Benign weather will continue through the weekend with a small
chance of morning low clouds and fog along the Los Angeles coast.
A significant warming trend will begin today with temperatures
well above normal Monday through next Friday, peaking Tuesday
through Thursday. Offshore winds will increase Sunday and Monday,
and are expected to persist through much of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...07/801 AM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate clear skies
across the area this morning. Weak offshore gradients are
generating some locally gusty north to northeast winds in the
15-25 mph range.

Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, no issues are
expected. Sunny skies will prevail for all areas through the day.
Looking at morning TEMP STUDY data, boundary layer is a bit warmer
and offshore pressure gradients are a bit stronger. So today will
be about 2-5 degrees than Saturday across the area. The weak
offshore winds will remain weak throughout the day.

Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short
term. So, no significant updates are expected.

***From Previous Discussion***

Benign weather on tap for the short term an beyond. Weak upper
level ridging will continue and hgts will rise from 582 dam today
to 586 dam on Tuesday. Offshore flow will also continue through
the period, peaking on Tuesday.

Skies should be mostly clear through the period with the
exception of a 30 percent chc of some low clouds in the KLAX-KLGB
area this morning and a more likely chc (~70 percent) chance on
Monday morning.

There will be local offshore winds each morning. Offshore flow
increases each day and peaks on Tuesday. There is no chc of
advisory level gust today and Monday but low end advisory level
gusts look possible Tuesday morning through and below the Santa
Lucia Range and the western LA vlys and eastern VTA vlys.

Temperatures will be the main story. Rising hgts, offshore flow
and sunny skies will all combine to bring 2 to 4 locally 5 degrees
of warming each day. Max temps across the csts/vlys will rise from
the upper 60s and 70s today to the the upper 70s to mid 80s by
Tuesday. Most max temps will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal on
Tuesday.

Min temps will be warmer than normal in the windier areas, but the
dry air and clear skies will bring lower than normal temps in the
wind sheltered areas.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...07/300 AM.

The GFS and EC as well as their ensembles all agree that the
ridging from the west will continue through Friday. The upper high
does weaken some and hgts will slowly fall during the 3 day
period. The onshore flow which peaked on Tuesday will also slowly
relax during the period.

While there will be some morning canyon winds they will not be of
much consequence.

Still this forecast is all about the temps. Tuesday will be the
warmest day for the csts of LA/VTA county as the relaxed offshore
flow will lead 1 or 2 degrees of cooling on Wednesday. For the
rest of the area, however, Wednesday will be the warmest day with
max temps rising another 2 to 3 degrees over Tuesday`s already
super warm temps. Almost all areas will cool 1 to 2 degrees on
Thursday as the high relaxes. Despite this cooling, most max temps
will still end up 10 to 15 degrees over normal (4 to 8 for the
nearshore area south of Pt Conception). Friday`s temps will be
similar to Thursday`s.

Not the best agreement on the pattern/fcst for next weekend, but
in general the high should continue to weaken and offshore flow
should weaken further. Some mdls show a return of the marine layer
as well. Some cooling each day is likely, but how much is still a
bit of a mystery.

&&

.AVIATION...07/1912Z.

At 1822Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 2500 feet with a temperature of 19 C.

Moderate to high confidence in KSBA, KOXR, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB
after 03Z Monday, otherwise high confidence for all TAFs. There
is a 30% chance of conds remaining VFR through the period at
KLAX. There is a 30% chance of VLIFR to LIFR conds at the
specified aforementioned sites, with conds potentially arriving as
early as 03Z Mon for KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB and around 09Z for KOXR
and KSBA.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance of VFR conds
persisting through the period, otherwise LIFR-IFR conds could
arrive as early as 03Z Mon. Any easterly winds will remain less
than 7 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...07/800 AM.

For the outer waters, there is a 40-60% chance of low-end Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions through the week, especially
across the western portions of the waters north of Santa Cruz
Island during the afternoon and evening hours.

For the inner waters including the southern California bight and
the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is a 30-50%
of local northeast SCA level wind gusts from Ventura to Santa
Monica as well as from Pismo Beach to Point Piedras Blancas each
night and morning through Tuesday, and a 30% chance of reoccurring
on Wednesday. Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below SCA
levels.

There is a moderate chance of dense fog over the coastal waters
through Monday morning. Confidence remains low on timing and
coverage.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/Thompson
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Hall/Lund
SYNOPSIS...Black/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox