922
FXUS66 KLOX 182059
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
159 PM PDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...18/126 PM.

Skies will slowly clear today and a warming trend will develop
over the weekend bringing temperatures to within a few degrees of
normal Sunday and Monday. After that a slow cooling trend will
develop through the remainder of next week with increasing night
and morning low clouds and fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...18/148 PM.

Clouds are very slowly clearing across the region today as the air
mass recovers from few days of deep marine layer and strong
onshore flow. Warmer air aloft is moving into the area today but
clouds are proving stubborn south of Pt Conception as weak
cyclonic flow is trapping moisture in the boundary layer below the
lee side of the Transverse range. As the marine inversion
continues to shrink and drier air aloft descends and punches
through the inversion this afternoon and evening clouds will
dissipate rapidly leading to mostly clear skies tonight into
Saturday.

Chamber of commerce weather is expected over the weekend into
Monday with plenty of sunshine and temperatures rising to within
a few degrees of normal. Low confidence on when or if low clouds
and fog will reform but clouds should just be morning feature at
most. Gradients are already trending weaker today and expect that
to really kick in tonight into early Saturday with a 4-5mb
offshore trend, leading to some areas of breezy northeast winds
across the LA Mountains and some of the higher valley areas
Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...18/158 PM.

Onshore flow begins its return as early as Sunday but especially
Monday as the next trough deepens along the West Coast. No
precipitation expected locally but temperatures will begin a slow
cooling trend that will continue through the week. Low clouds and
fog will return to coastal areas by Monday if not before and
eventually the valleys as cooling aloft deepens the marine
inversion. The increasing onshore flow will create increasing
west to southwest winds especially in the Antelope Valley. But
otherwise a fairly low impact period of weather with another long
stretch of below normal temperatures. Longer range models indicate
a continued cool pattern through next week and even into the last
week of April.

&&

.AVIATION...18/1731Z.

At 1658Z at KLAX, there was a 6900 ft deep moist layer with
multiple cloud decks.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs through this afternoon as
flight cats will continuously bounce between MVFR and VFR. Lower
confidence after 02Z. Moderate confidence in cigs at coastal sites
late tonight into tomorrow morning, but low confidence in timing
and minimum flight cats. Flight cat changes may be off +/- 4 hours
and minimum flight cats may be off by at least one cat. There is
a 30-50% chance for VFR conds to prevail tonight through tomorrow
morning at KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB, with highest chances
at KCMA. There is a 20% chance for IFR to MVFR conds at KBUR and
KVNY between 06Z and 15Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Conds will likely bounce
between MVFR to VFR through 22Z. There is a 20% chance for VFR
cons to prevail thereafter through the period. Otherwise, flight
cat changes may be off +/- 4 hours. Low confidence in minimum
flight cat. There is a low (10% chance) for cigs 005-010 once they
arrive tonight. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Conds will likely
bounce between MVFR to VFR through 22Z. There is a 20% chance for
IFR to MVFR conds between 06Z and 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...18/141 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. There is a 30% chance for localized Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level northwest wind gusts around Point Conception
down to the Northern Channel Islands and in the northern Outer
Waters this afternoon through early evening hours. Saturday
through Monday morning, there is a 20-30% chance for such winds
around Point Conception and the Channel Islands in the afternoon
and evening. Elsewhere, winds and seas are expected to remain sub
advisory through Monday morning. Then, Monday afternoon into at
least Tuesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. There is a 30% chance for
localized SCA level wind gusts this afternoon into the evening
near Pismo Beach. Saturday through Monday morning, high confidence
in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. From Monday
afternoon through at least Tuesday, there is a 30-40% chance of
SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels across
most areas. The only exception will be the western half of the
Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 30-50% of SCA level wind
gusts in the afternoon through evening hours.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox