128
FXUS66 KLOX 041014
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
314 AM PDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...04/150 AM.

Dry weather is on tap for the next 7 days at least. A warming
trend will begin today and will continue through late next week
with only a one day break on Monday. Well above normal temperatures
are very likely next Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 90s
expected across the valleys. Heat advisories will be possible both
days.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...04/238 AM.

The start to a strong warm up begins today. The upper low that
affected the area for the past few days will shift to the east and
will allow a ridge to slowly build in. Hgts over the next three
days rise from 552 dam ydy to 565 dam today then to 577 dam
Saturday and finally 580 dam on Sunday. The average 500mb hgt for
this time of year is 571 dam.

At the sfc there will be weak offshore flow from the north today
with weak onshore flow to the west. There will be a weak Santa Ana
Saturday with about 3 mb off offshore flow both from the east and
north. The offshore flow will continue on Sunday but will be about
a mb weaker than Saturday.

Aside from some low clouds this morning across western SBA county
skies will be mostly clear through the period.

There will be some northerly canyon winds this morning. NE Santa
Ana winds will develop on Saturday but will not reach advisory
levels. Even weaker NE winds will occur on Sunday.

Temperatures will be the main story both in the short and long
term. The combination of quickly rising hgts, offshore flow and
plenty of sunshine will bring 4 to 8 degrees of warming both today
and Saturday with an additional 2 to 4 degrees for most areas on
Sunday. By Sunday all of the csts away form the beaches will be in
the 70s and the vlys in the lower to mid 80s. Today`s temps will
be 2 to 4 degrees blo normal but by Sunday max temps will be 2 to
4 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...04/313 AM.

Monday will be the only day where max temps cool. The ridge will
be knocked down as a trof moves through the PACNW and nrn CA. More
importantly the offshore flow will flip to onshore. Some marine
layer clouds will likely form across western SBA county. Most max
temps will fall 2 to 4 degrees. Max temps away from the cst will
remain above normal.

And then as Glen Frey sings: The Heat is on. Hgts will rise to 581
dam on Tue as a ridge begins to push up from the north. Hgts peak
at 584 dam on Wednesday before falling a dam or two Thursday.

At the sfc there will be weak onshore flow from the west but
about 3 mb of offshore flow from the north. Skies should be mostly
clear, but there is 20 to 30 percent chc of some morning low
clouds each morning esp over Srn LA county and western SBA county.

Look for 4 to 8 degrees of warming each day. This warming will
catapult max temps up into the 80s for most of the csts and the
90s for the vlys on Wednesday. There is a low but non zero chance
of some 100 degree readings in the western San Fernando Vly on
Wednesday. These temps are 12 to 18 degrees above normal. Onshore
flow increases on Thursday and this will bring some cooling to the
coasts but the inland areas will see max temps very close to
Wednesday very warm temps. Overnight lows will also be warming and
with warmer overnight lows combining with well above normal highs
there is a 30 percent chc of that heat products will be needed
for some vly areas.

&&

.AVIATION...04/0947Z.

Around 0730Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX.

High confidence in the current forecast, except for a low chance
of LIFR conditions through 16Z at terminals north of Point
Conception.

KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Any east
wind component will be less than 7 knots.

KBUR...VFR condutions are expected through the period. No wind
impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.MARINE...04/247 AM.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands,
there is a 50-80 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory
conditions continuing through late this evening or early Saturday
morning. The highest chance will be beyond 10 NM offshore of the
Central Coast and south to Point Conception to San Nicolas Island.
Winds and seas will likely drop below SCA levels on Saturday, and
remain below SCA levels through Sunday afternoon. Winds will then
increase again between Sunday night and Monday with Small Craft
Advisory level winds likely by Monday afternoon and continuing
through midweek next week.

Inside the southern California bight, there is a 40-60 percent
chance of SCA level west to northwest winds redeveloping this
afternoon and evening. The highest chance will be for the western
portion of the Santa Barbara Channel and in the vicinity of the
Channel Islands. There is a moderate-to-high (30-50 percent)
chance of SCA level northeast winds from Rincon Point to Pacific
Palisades late tonight through Saturday morning. Winds and seas
should remain below SCA levels for Saturday night through Monday.
Then, there is a moderate-to-high (30-50 percent) chance of SCA
level west winds on Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox