097
FXUS66 KLOX 040249
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
749 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...03/733 PM.

Near normal weather conditions are expected through this weekend
with continued night to morning low clouds and fog over the coast
and valleys. Much warmer temperatures are expected by the middle
of next week, especially inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...03/201 PM.

Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend as
weak troughing persists along the West Coast. High and low
temperatures will remain fairly static through that period. The
marine layer will be a consistent feature as well during the night
and morning hours across coast and most coastal valleys, and may
linger at some beaches well into the afternoon, especially north
of Pt Conception. Not seeing to much in the way of winds except
the usual gusty winds into the Antelope Valley and low grade
Sundowners across southwest Santa Barbara County. Some areas may
get some smoke impacts from the Madre Fire in southeast SLO
County over the coming days.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...03/220 PM.

Very little change in overall weather conditions expected through
at least Monday as weak troughing continues. A high pressure ridge
over Arizona will slowly start to expand west into California Tuesday
into Wednesday and push the West Coast trough farther north.
Virtually all of the ensemble solutions are showing this pattern
evolving so confidence is higher than usual for an event that is
almost a week away. Models are indicating a 600dam high across the
4 corners region with light southeast flow aloft. There is
expected to be an active tropical pattern across Mexico during
this time as well so there is a possibility of monsoon moisture
entering the region in addition to the heat. Temperatures are
expected to climb well into the triple digits across the interior
and parts of the warmest coastal valleys as well so heat
advisories and/or warnings are a possibility as well. However,
models still maintain a moderate onshore flow during this period
so coastal area temperatures will be much more moderate with a
shallow marine inversion in place.

&&

.AVIATION...04/0248Z.

At 2343Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1400 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was around 3700 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KWJF and KPMD).

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a 30% chance VFR
conds prevail at KPRB. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off
by 1-3 hours and flight minimums inaccurate by one category. FU
from the Madre Fire may be present at times around KSMX, and may
reach upper levels for KWJF and KPMD, but VSBYs should remain
greater than 6SM.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Arrival of CIGs may be off
by 2 hours, and minimum cig height could be inaccurate by (+/-
300 ft). East wind component is expected to be 4 kt or less.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of
no low clouds arrive tonight.

&&

.MARINE...03/745 PM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are likely across the Outer
Waters much of the time through the 4th of July Weekend. SCA winds
are also likely each afternoon and evening for the nearshore
waters along the Central Coast Friday through the weekend. Local
Gale Force wind gusts are possible at times through Sunday, with
the best chances across PZZ670 (60%) and around the western
Channel Islands (20%) Friday afternoon/eve. Peak sea heights are
expected to range from 8 to 10 feet through the weekend.

Inside the southern California bight, there is a moderate
(30-50%) chance of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening
Friday through the weekend across the Santa Barbara Channel.
Most likely across the western portion. Local gusts up to 20 kts
may occur near Point Dume, and into the San Pedro Channel during
the aforementioned time.

Patchy dense fog may affect the coastal waters, especially north
of Point Conception overnight and in the morning hours through
this weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday evening
      for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Phillips/Black
MARINE...Black/Lewis/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox