136
FXUS66 KLOX 101109
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
409 AM PDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...10/350 AM.

Above normal temperatures will continue away from the coast
through Friday with normal to slightly below normal temperatures
near the coast. A cooling trend is expected over the weekend and
into early next week, especially inland, with temperatures at
below normal levels across most of the region Monday through
Wednesday. Areas of night through morning low clouds will continue
in coastal and lower valley areas through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...10/340 AM.

Low clouds and fog were widespread in all coastal and valley areas
this morning, with the exception of the Santa Clarita Valley, and
the interior valleys of SLO/SBA Counties. An elongated upper high
in the Pacific was beginning to nose into the region from the
southwest, and will causing heights to rise slightly today. Expect
skies to clear by mid morning in the valleys and by noon across
the coastal plain. Once again, some clouds could linger near the
beaches into the afternoon, continuing the rather cloudy pattern
that has existed near the coast for much of this fall. Expect
mostly minor changes in max temps today, which will be generally
a few degrees above normal except near to slightly below normal
near the coast due to the unseasonably high cloud cover.

The upper high will move eastward tonight and Fri, and heights
will rise a bit. The marine layer should become a bit more shallow
tonight, with less inland extent of low clouds in the valleys
tonight/Fri morning. At the same time, onshore flow will weaken,
and temps at 950 mb will rise slightly. This should bring a
couple of degrees of warming to most areas Fri. Some high clouds
may push into the area from the west Fri.

An upper low will move into and across far northern CA Fri night
and Sat, with a broad trough extending southward into the region.
Do not expect too much change in the low cloud pattern Fri night/
Sat morning, with clouds in coastal and lower valley areas. There
may be a fair amount of high level cloudiness. Increasing onshore
gradients will likely cause some gusty but sub-advisory level
winds in the Antelope Valley. Expect a couple of degrees of
cooling in most areas Sat.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...10/409 AM.

The upper low will move eastward into Nevada Sat night/Sun, then
it will drop slowly southward thru Nevada Sun night/Mon. A broad
trough will linger across the region Sat night thru Mon, with
heights gradually falling across the region during that period.
The marine layer may deepen a bit, with widespread night thru
morning low clouds and fog in coastal and most valley areas.
Increasing N-S gradients may bring some gusty winds to portions of
southern SBA County and to the I-5 Corridor at times Sat night
thru Sun night. Max temps will likely drop a few degrees each day
across inland areas, with little change near the coast. By Mon,
max temps will be below normal in most areas.

The upper low will move eastward Tue and some very weak ridging
may briefly build into the area. However, another broad trough in
the eastern Pacific will move into the West Coast Tue night and
Wed. Expect little change in temps Tue, with some cooling on Wed.
Mid and high clouds may begin to increase across the forecast area
on Wed, and the southern end of a weakening frontal system could
bring light rain just to the north of the forecast area Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...10/1021Z.

Due to a data outage, current marine layer and inversion height
data is not available for KLAX.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast for coastal and
valleys terminals, otherwise high confidence in the current
forecast for desert terminals. Higher confidence exists in flight
categories. Less confidence for timing.

For coastal and valley terminals, LIFR to IFR conditions are
likely to persist through at least 15Z. Scattering out could occur
as soon as 15Z, or as late as 20Z. There is a low-to-moderate
chance of VLIFR conditions at terminals north of KNTD through 14Z.
There is a low chance of IFR conditions lingering after 20Z. An
early of LIFR to IFR conditions should expected at coastal
terminals.

KLAX...IFR conditions will persist through as early as 18Z, or as
late as 20Z. There is a 30 percent chance of LIFR conditions
between 13Z and 16Z. IFR conditions could spread back into KLAX as
soon as 00Z, or as late as 05Z.

KBUR...IFR conditions will persist through as early as 15Z, or as
late as 17Z. There is a 40 percent chance of LIFR conditions
through 16Z. VFR conditions are expected after 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...10/257 AM.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast. Slightly higher
confidence in the current forecast for seas versus winds.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and beyond 10 NM offshore of the Central Coast, there is a 40-60
percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds across
each afternoon and evening through Saturday, increasing 50-70
percent by Saturday evening. For Sunday through Monday, there is
a 20-40 percent chance of SCA level winds. The highest chance will
be for the waters from around Point Conception south to the San
Nicolas Island.

For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, Winds and seas
will very likely remain below SCA levels at least Saturday
afternoon. There is a 20-30 percent chance of SCA winds each
afternoon and evening through Friday evening. There is a 40-50
percent chance of SCA level winds on Saturday afternoon and
evening, then the chances for SCA level winds will diminish to a
20-30 percent chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon and
evening hours on Sunday and Monday.

Inside the southern California bight, winds and seas will remain
below SCA levels through Monday, except for a 20-30 percent
chance of SCA level wind gusts during the afternoon and evening
hours and a 50-60 percent chance of SCA level winds across the
western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel Saturday afternoon
and evening.

A shallow marine layer will keep patchy dense fog in place
across the coastal waters through this morning with visibilities
of one nautical mile or less expected.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...DB

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox