675
FXUS66 KLOX 192203
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
203 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...19/112 PM.

Another storm is expected to move through the area Thursday into
Friday bringing moderate rain and mountain snow above 6000 feet.
High pressure will return for Thanksgiving week that will warm
temperatures and keep the storm track well north of southern
California.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...19/158 PM.

One more dry evening tonight before the next storm system moves
into the area Thursday. Models have generally lowered the rain
projections since yesterday by around 10-20%. That still fits in
with the 0.50-1" coast/valleys. 1-2" foothills and mountains
forecast, but nudging towards the lower side of those. And the
highest amounts are still expected to be in LA County. It`s
important to keep in mind, though, that despite the overall
lowering of amounts, there are still 10-20% of the solutions that
are twice that amount. This is due to the uncertainty of the
movement of the cutoff low.

Also, there is a convective risk with this system with the best
chances of that being in LA County overnight Thursday into Friday
morning. Models are showing 300-600 CAPE with lapse rates as high
as 8C/km. So there is likely going to be a big spread in rain
amounts over short distances, depending on where the heavier
downpours develop. Latest high res models indicate a 60% chance
of rain rates around a half inch per hour between Pasadena and the
Orange County line, starting around 10pm Thursday and peaking
around 3 am Friday. While the overall risk for burn scar debris
flows is low, it`s certainly not zero. Based on these models the
risk would be higher across eastern LA County than western. And
in addition to that, there is a low chance (5% or less) of a weak
tornado, with the best chances across southeast LA County.

The upper low is expected to move south of LA County Friday but
wrap around showers from the northeast are possible, especially in
LA County through the day. The ultimate movement of the upper low
will largely determine how much additional rain falls but most of
the model solutions indicate just light showers the rest of Friday
and possibly even into early Saturday morning.

There is enough cold air with this storm to bring snow to some of
the local mountains above 6000 feet, especially in LA County where
a Winter Storm Watch is in effect. Will re-evaluate tonight based
on the later model runs and decide whether to go with an Winter
Weather Advisory or go with a Warning. Lower snow amounts
expected in Ventura County where a Winter Weather Advisory is in
effect.

After a chance of morning showers in LA County Saturday the
remainder of the day and weekend is expected to be dry but cool.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...19/203 PM.

Expecting a dry week through Thanksgiving and likely through at
least next Saturday. Highs will warm up modestly with most areas
in the mid 60s to low 70s all week with no significant winds
expected and minimal if any marine layer stratus.

&&

.AVIATION...19/1741Z.

At 1738Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

There is a 10% chance of -SHRA for KWJF and KPMD through 20/06Z.

High confidence in VFR conds at all sites until 10Z, moderate
confidence in TAFs thereafter. A cold front will swing through
the region from north to south, beginning at KPRB. -SHRA to +RA
possible at times, with heaviest rain expected KSBA and south
after 18Z. IFR to MVFR conds likely with rain, but localized LIFR
possible with heavier rain. Gustiest winds expected after the
period, but lower confidence in wind direction and speed due to
dependence on the location of the upper level low moving over the
region.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF through 15Z, moderate confidence
thereafter. Timing of rain may be off +/- 3 hours. Rain may
heavier at times, especially after 20/21Z. LIFR to IFR conds
possible with heavier rain. Lower confidence in wind direction,
but moderate confidence in S-E winds 20/13Z - 21/18Z. Strongest
winds between 20/21Z and 21/04Z. Moderate confidence in east wind
component remaining over 8 knots through the aforementioned time
frame.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF through 15Z, moderate confidence
thereafter. Timing of rain may be off +/- 3 hours. Rain may
heavier at times, especially after 20/21Z. LIFR to IFR conds
possible with heavier rain.

&&

.MARINE...19/201 PM.

A storm system will swing south through California, bringing
gusty winds, a large west-northwest swell, rain, and potential
thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend. The highest rain and
thunderstorm chances exists from Thursday afternoon through Friday
afternoon. Any thunderstorm can produce erratic wind shifts,
heavy rain, lightning, and even waterspouts.

A combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas will
be common across the coastal waters beginning early Thursday
through much of the weekend. Seas will rapidly increase to upwards
of 15 feet across the Outer Waters, 10 feet for the nearshore
Central Coast Waters, and 6 feet inside the Southern California
Bight. Ahead of the cold front associated with the storm system,
10-15 knot southerly winds will occur, then NW winds 20-30 knots
will follow in the wake of the front.

Northeast winds 20-30 knots will be common nearshore from Ventura
to Malibu Friday morning through Saturday evening. There is a
moderate chance these winds reach the Channel Islands across the
Santa Barbara Channel. Northeast to southeast winds 10-20 knots
are likely nearshore form the Palos Verdes Peninsula south through
Orange County. Lower confidence, but winds have a chance of
impacting Catalina Island, including Avalon Harbor. SCAs will
more than likely be issued tonight after newer high resolution
guidance comes in.

The variable winds across all coastal waters will result in rough,
confused seas. Low chances, but Gale Force winds are possible
virtually anywhere as any changes to the locations of the storm`s
core can create major differences in wind speeds and direction.

Confidence is low in winds for Thursday through Saturday. It is
best to alter any plans and remain in safe harbor until conditions
improve.

&&

.BEACHES...19/104 PM.

High Surf Advisories are now in effect from Thursday through
Sunday night along the Central Coast and Ventura County. There is
a 30% chance for High Surf Advisories to be issued for the Los
Angeles County coasts during that timeframe.

Highly variable winds will create rough surf conditions across all
coasts. In addition to rough surf, there is a chance for
thunderstorms Thursday through Friday night at all beaches.
Thunderstorms can produce lightning, heavy downpours, gusty-
erratic winds, and even waterspouts.

Beach erosion with isolated, minor coastal flooding is possible
for west-northwest facing beaches, especially during peak high
tide from 8 AM to 1 PM from Friday through Sunday, with highest
risk along the Central Coast.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 PM Thursday to 9 PM PST
      Sunday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Friday to 10 AM PST
      Saturday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 2 AM
      PST Friday for zone 377. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     Winter Storm Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through
      Saturday morning for zones 379-380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Thursday to 3 AM PST
      Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 3 AM
      PST Saturday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Thursday to 3 AM PST
      Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
BEACHES...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox