996
FXUS66 KLOX 222236
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
236 PM PST Wed Jan 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...22/138 PM.

Warm and dry conditions will continue through Thursday as another
Santa Ana pattern develops. Gusty northeast winds will develop
today and peak overnight tonight and into Thursday morning. A
significant cooling trend will begin Friday and continue through
the weekend as a cold storm system moves over the region. Showers
are expected off and on through Monday morning with mountain snow
above 3000 to 4000 feet.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...22/217 PM.

Santa Ana winds have returned to LA/Ventura Counties and expected
to really kick into gear later tonight into Thursday. Wind
advisories and warnings are in effect for all the usual Santa Ana
areas. As usual this does not include most of the LA metro area or
the San Gabriel Valley. So far winds have mostly been at or below
advisory levels with just a couple sites in the mountains
reporting 50+ mph winds. As gradients and upper support increase,
especially after midnight tonight into Thursday morning, winds
will increase as well peaking in the 60-65 mph range in the
mountains and up to 50 mph in the valleys and Oxnard plain. Gusty
east winds also expected through the Santa Lucias in SLO County
but mostly under 35 mph.

Winds expected to slowly taper off through the afternoon Thursday
and evening, though given the strong gradients in the morning
some wind hazards, particularly across inland areas, may need to
be extended beyond the current 2pm expiration.

Temperatures today have climbed to the 70s to lower 80s. Expecting
one more day of well above normal temperatures and even a few
degrees warmer with a few areas in the mid 80s. This would be
roughly 15-20 degrees above normal across coast and valleys.

Gradients will quickly turn onshore Friday, resulting in a much
cooler day for coast and valleys, likely dropping back into the
60s to lower 70s. May still have some local northeast winds in the
valleys and mountains early Friday before onshore flow kicks
fully into gear Friday afternoon.

On Saturday a cold upper low will be dropping south through
California and be centered somewhere in the vicinity of the Bay
Area Saturday afternoon. As the low continues its track to the
south, shower chances will be increasing across the area. Most of
the ensemble solutions indicate showers holding off until later
in the afternoon or even into Sunday morning, but cutoff lows are
very difficult to predict the movement of and the timing could be
off by several hours or more. Snow levels will be lowering and if
showers start Saturday there could be snow down to 4000 feet by
evening, possibly leading to light snow accumulations in the
higher portions of the Eaton fire as well as the Tejon Pass on
Interstate 5.

Temperatures Saturday will be much cooler with highs in the 50s
to lower 60s for coast and valleys.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...22/235 PM.

The upper low is expected to remain in the vicinity of southwest
California through at least Sunday night and possibly into Monday.
Ensemble solutions have been pretty consistent showing the best
chances of showers later Saturday into Sunday. Given the location
of the upper low, the most favorable area for precip will be
across the eastern portion of the San Gabriel mountains and the
adjacent foothills as that is where the best forcing and upslope
flow will be. While showers will mostly be on the lighter side,
under a quarter inch per hour, the longer duration of showers
across the eastern San Gabriels from late Saturday through early
Monday will allow rain totals be higher there than other areas,
possibly an inch or more. Rain totals expected to taper off to a
half inch or less west of LA County. With the upper low overhead
there is still a chance of thunderstorm or two across the area
with rain rates around a half inch per hour. If this happens over
a burn scar it could initiate a debris flow but the chances of
that happening are only 5-10%.

Snow accumulations could reach 4-8 inches in the eastern LA
mountains and will have to consider a winter weather advisory as
we get closer. Lower snow amounts expected to the west of LA
County.

Dry conditions expected Tuesday through Wednesday. There are a few
ensemble solutions showing some offshore winds next week but
chances are under 20%.

&&

.AVIATION...22/2225Z.

At 22Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

High confidence in VFR conditions at all sites, except MVFR to IFR
vsbys from smoke at KCMA.

Locally gusty NE winds in the mtns/valleys of L.A./VTU Counties
will become widespread in VTU County, northern/western valleys of
L.A. County, and the Malibu Coast thru Thu morning. There is,
however, low confidence in the timing of the onset of stronger
winds, which may occur several hours after forecast time.

1-3 SM vsbys in smoke at KCMA through at least this evening, from
Hughes Fire.

In windy locations, lgt-ocnl mdt LLWS and turbc are likely,
especially near the mtns/foothills. Peak winds should occur
02Z-18Z.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR conds. There is a 30% chance of N
to NE winds of 10-15 kt 08Z-16Z Thu. Good confidence that there
will be no east wind component over 6 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conds. There is a 25% chance of NE
wind gusts to 30 kt from through 01Z, and again 10Z-18Z. Wind
direction may be off by as much as 30 degrees. Lgt-ocnl mdt LLWS
and turbc are likely, especially during the 02Z-18Z period.

&&

.MARINE...22/225 PM.

In the Outer Waters, SCA level NE winds are expected (70% chance)
in the southern zone (PZZ676) from this evening thru Thu
afternoon. There is a 20-30% chance of Gale force gusts late
tonight/Thu morning, mainly in the NE portions of the zone.
Otherwise in the outer waters, SCA conds are not expected thru
Fri. SCA level NW winds are likely (60% chance) in the northern
zone Fri night/Sat, with SCA seas Sat night and Sun. In the
southern zones (PZZ673/676), SCA level seas are likely Sat into
Sun, with a 30% chance of SCA level winds.

In the Inner Waters off the Central Coast, winds should drop
below SCA level by noon. SCA conds are not expected tonight thru
Fri night. SCA level seas are likely (60% chance) Sat/Sat night.

For the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception:

From Ventura/Oxnard to Malibu and out to Anacapa and E Santa Cruz
Island, SCA level NE winds will continue. Gale force winds are
likely (60% chance) from late this afternoon thru early Thu
afternoon. There is a 30-40% chance that Gales will not arrive
until tonight. There is a 30% chance that SCA level winds will
persist into Thu night.

Thru the San Pedro Channel S to off the coast of Orange County,
SCA level winds are likely (60% chance) from late this afternoon
thru early Thu afternoon. There is a 30% chance that SCA level
winds will not arrive until tonight. There is a 10-20% chance of
Gale force gusts late tonight/Thu morning. There is a 40% chance
that SCA level winds will reach Avalon Harbor and Two Harbors.

Elsewhere, there is a 30% chance of SCA level NE winds late
tonight/Thu morning.

SCA conds are not expected Thu night-Sun night, except for a 30%
chance of SCA level W winds in the SBA Channel Sat afternoon/eve.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM PST this evening
      for zones 88-369-375-376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect from 10 PM this evening
      to 2 PM PST Thursday for zones 88-369-375-376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 2 PM PST Thursday for
      zones 354-355-358-362-370>372-374-377. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect until 10 AM PST Friday for zones
      288-354-355-358-362-369>380. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 PM PST Thursday for zones
      650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 10 PM this evening to 3
      PM PST Thursday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Rorke/Cohen
MARINE...DB/ASR/Cohen
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox