656
FXUS66 KLOX 121015
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
315 AM PDT Mon May 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...12/206 AM.

temperatures today will come crashing down, with gusty coastal
and desert winds in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will
drop further Tuesday and drizzle will be possible. Cooler
conditions will last through the weekend, with low clouds and fog
pushing back into the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...12/306 AM.

Low clouds are trying to get started and currently are only across
southern LA county. There is an eddy, increasing cyclonic flow and
increasing onshore so there will likely be an explosion of low
clouds towards dawn that will cover most of the csts/vlys of
LA/VTA counties. Low clouds will also likely cover western SBA
county. There is about a 30 percent chc that there will not be
quite as much low cloud coverage as the current forecast. Assuming
the low clouds do form they will be slow to clear across the vlys
with no clearing likely for the much of the csts as the onshore
push to the east is forecast to reach an impressive 9 mb this
afternoon. In addition to the low clouds a grip of low clouds will
also move over the area so expect a mostly cloudy day. Lowering
hgts, low clouds and strong onshore flow will all combine to lower
max temps today by 5 to 10 locally 12 degrees across the csts and
10 to 20 degrees over the rest of the area. Today`s highs will
mostly end up in the 60s across the csts and lower to mid 70s in
the vlys or 3 to 6 degrees blo normal. The strong onshore push
will generate gusty winds in the 25 to 40 mph range across many
coastal and interior areas this afternoon and evening. The
Antelope Vly and western foothills will likely see gusts of 40 to
50 mph and a wind advisory will be posted with the evening
update.

A fairly sharp but also quite dry trof will move over the area on
Tuesday. The biggest precipitation threat from the trof will be
drizzle as it interacts with a deep marine layer but there will be
a slight chc of shower over the higher peaks of the LA/VTA mtns.
The marine layer will be lifted to over 4000 ft and stratus will
likely cover all of the csts/vly and will xtnd deep into the mtns
passes. Clear will be slow with many coastal areas remain cloudy
through the day. 2 to 4 degrees of additional cooling (4 to 8
locally 12 across the Antelope Vly and the VTA/LA mtns) will bring
almost all max temps down into the 60s with just a smattering of
readings in the lower 70s. Advisory level gusts are likely again
across the western Antelope Vly.

Much less to talk about for Wednesday. Morning marine layer clouds
will cover much of the csts/vlys, but offshore trends will allow
for much faster and better clearing. More sunshine, rising hgts
and weaker onshore flow will all mix together to bring 3 to 6
degrees of warming to most areas. Max temps, however, will still
come in 2 to 5 degrees blo normal.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...12/314 AM.

Broad pos tilt troffing will be over the area Thursday and Friday.
There will be moderate onshore flow at the sfc. May Grey will
continue with night though morning low clouds, but there should be
good clearing for most of the area (a few west facing beaches may
stay cloudy). The csts/vlys will not see too much temperature
change and will remain 2 to 4 degree blo normal. There will be
better warming across the mtns and far interior Thursday and
little change on Fri.

An upper low is forecast to move into the far northern portion of
the state Sat and then down into Srn CA on Sun. Look for strong
onshore flow to develop with gusty winds across much of the area.
There may be enough cold advection and mixing to disrupt the
marine layer on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...12/0624Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 700 ft deep. The
top of the inversion was at 1800 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

Hi confidence for TAFs at KPRB, KSBP, KSBA, KWJF and KPMD.

Low confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 40 percent chc of
IFR cigs 12Z-17Z.

Moderate confidence for the rest of the TAFs. Timing of flight cat
changes could be off by +/- 90 minutes and there is a 30 percent
chc of cigs coming in 400 ft higher than fcst.

KLAX....Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs could arrive as early as
08Z or as late as 11Z. There is a 30 percent chc that cigs will
be OVC012. VFR conds could arrive as early as 18Z. Any easterly
wind component will be less than 7 knots.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low clouds could arrive as
early as 12Z and could clear as late as 1830Z.

&&

.MARINE...11/831 PM.

For the outer waters, there is moderate to high confidence in the
current forecast. GALE Force winds at times are expected to
persist into the late night hours for PZZ673/676, especially
around the Northern Channel Islands. Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
winds are expected to persist in PZZ670 through late tonight,
followed by a period of sub-SCA winds Mon and Mon evening.
Thereafter, SCA winds will persist for much of the time thru Mid-
week for the Outer waters. There is a 10-20% chance of GALE force
winds Tue afternoon/eve.

For the inner waters N of Point Sal, there is moderate to high
confidence in the current forecast. High confidence in SCA winds
through at least Wednesday evening, especially during the
afternoon/eve hours. Thereafter, there is only a 20-30% chance of
SCA level winds during the afternoon/eve hours for the remainder
of the work week.

For the inner waters S of Point Conception, there is moderate to
high confidence in the current forecast. GALE force wind gusts
are expected at times across portions of the Santa Barbara Channel
through late tonight. There is a 60-70% chance of GALE force winds
across the SBA channel (esp. eastern portions) Mon afternoon/eve.
Will let next shift or two decide on whether or not to issue GALE
warning. Thereafter, SCA level winds are expected for entire SBA
channel through Tue, followed by a 60% chance for western portions
Wed afternoon/eve. For remainder of work week, conds are generally
expected to remain below SCA Criteria.

Seas are generally expected to remain below SCA levels through
the work week. However, seas could approach near SCA levels at
times for the outer waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PDT this morning
      for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect from 8 AM this morning to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zones 381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 645-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox