444
FXUS66 KLOX 262014
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
114 PM PDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...26/1227 PM.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible through
this evening. Then some more light showers are possible along the
Central Coast later tonight into Sunday afternoon. Otherwise,
another cool day Sunday. Then dry and warmer Monday, then warmest
Tuesday before a cooling trend develops for the latter part of
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...26/1256 PM.

The cold front moved quickly through the area this morning. Rain
amounts for 90% of the area were under a half inch with hourly rain
rates under a quarter inch. However, hourly rain rates of 0.50"
to 0.60" developed over the Palisades burn scar between 9 and 10am
and there was some minor flooding along PCH forcing a closure of
the highway.

Now that the upper low with -25c to -30c temps at 500mb has moved
onshore the air mass is destabilizing and a few thunderstorms
have developed, especially in central Santa Barbara County where
the upper low is. Best chance for storms will be inland over the
mountains and interior SLO/SB Counties but can`t rule out a brief
storm over the LA Basin this afternoon. Steering flow is 30-40kt
so storms will not be lingering too long over any one area but
there could be some brief heavy showers and possibly small hail.

Snow levels have been around 5000 feet but there still could be
some snow down to 4000-4500 feet under convective cells. No
accumulations expected over the Grapevine.

Overnight into Sunday morning, while the main upper moves into NV,
models still show a weak impulse moving into the Central Coast,
maintaining a chance of mostly light showers there. Not expecting
additional rain amounts after this afternoon to be much more than
a quarter inch. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected after this
evening but with still a fair amount of clouds through the day,
especially the valleys and mountains. Temperatures will remain
10-15 degrees below normal. Gusty westerly winds will develop
Sunday afternoon, mainly near the coast.

Temperatures will warm up several degrees Monday and Tuesday with
highs reaching the lower 80s for the warmer valleys Tuesday and
low 70s coastal areas except mid to high 60s right at the
beaches.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...26/105 PM.

Very low impact weather for second half of next week. After the
warm up earlier in the week, temperatures will trend slightly
cooler Wed-Sat as a weak trough sets up over California.
Highs will drop a few degrees to near to slightly below normal.
Onshore flow will be increasing as well, likely leading to a
return of marine layer stratus for some coastal areas. Friday and
Saturday there is a possibilty of some gusty Sundowner winds
across southern Santa Barbara County. Otherwise, a pretty quiet
week of weather.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1810Z.

At 1717Z at KLAX, there was a deep moist layer around 15,000 ft
deep.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of TAFs. The main rain band
has moved east of most terminals outside of LA County. -SHRA may
impact all sites through the period, with highest chances for
coastal sites. Conds may bounce between VFR and MVFR at points as
there are several cloud decks. LIFR to MVFR conds can occur
during any period of SHRA/RA, but will likely be short lived.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. The main rain band has moved
on, but spotty -SHRA is possible through much of the period. IFR
to MVFR conds are possible during any periods of rain. BKN025-050
likely through much of the period. No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. -RA to RA is possible through
19Z, then -SHRA possible through 03Z. Lower chances for -SHRA
exist for the remainder of the period, but there is a still a
10-20% chance. IFR to MVFR conds are possible during any periods
of rain. BKN015-050 likely through much of the period.

&&

.MARINE...26/112 PM.

Moderate confidence in forecast.

For the Outer Waters, there is a 40% chance of SCA level wind
gusts for western portions of PZZ676 this afternoon through late
tonight. Widespread chances for SCA conds increase (60-90%) Sun
afternoon thru at least Tues night. There is a 20-40% chance for
SCA level winds Wed.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, conditions are expected
to remain below SCA Criteria through Sun morning. SCA winds are
possible during the afternoon/eve hours Sun thru Tues (50-80%
chance). There is a 20-30% chance Wed afternoon/eve.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, there is a 30%
chance of SCA level winds across the Santa Barbara Channel this
afternoon/eve. Thereafter, chances increase to >80% across the
entire SBA Channel and 50-60% for southern Inner Waters off the
LA and OC coasts on Sunday, including nearshore. There is a 50-60%
chance of SCA level winds for western portions of SBA Channel Mon
afternoon/eve. Much lower chances Tue through Wed.

Across the waters, rain showers will impact the waters through at
least late tonight night. There is a low chance of thunderstorms
(10%) this afternoon into the evening over the Inner and Outer
Waters along the Central Coast. Any thunderstorm could produce
gusty, erratic winds, lightning, and small hail. Seas are
generally expected to remain below SCA levels through the work
week. However, seas could approach SCA Criteria at times across
far western portions of the Outer Waters through Wednesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Winter Weather Advisory now in effect until 7 PM PDT this
      evening for zones 353-376-377. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Sunday morning through
      Wednesday evening for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 11 PM PDT
      this evening for zones 378>380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT
      Monday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Sunday to 9 PM PDT
      Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox