263
FXUS66 KLOX 142051
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
151 PM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...14/119 PM.

A few lingering showers are expected through early evening,
otherwise dry weather through the rest of the week. A light Santa
Ana pattern will develop Thursday and Friday that will bring much
warmer temperatures and some locally breezy northeast winds. Dry
weather will continue into next week but with cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...14/140 PM.

A strong system for any time of year, let alone October, has
finally exited the area. Still could see a 5-10 minute moderate
shower just about anywhere through this afternoon but for the most
part the big impacts have ended. The big rain winners were in the
San Gabriel Mountains where there were several reports of rain
amounts over 5". Otherwise most areas ended up with between 1 and
1.5 inches.

Going forward, really not expecting any impactful weather for
several days. A light Santa Ana event will follow this storm,
peaking Thu/Fri. Winds are not expected to be too strong, but
could get some gusts into the 30s in the San Gabriels and some of
the higher valleys of LA/Ventura Counties. The more notable
change will be the temperatures which will warm up well into the
80s across the valleys and mid 70s to low 80s at the coast. May
get some patches of fog tonight, especially in some of the valleys
with left over moisture from the rain and rapid cooling under
clearing skies. Otherwise, not expecting any marine layer
formation the rest of the week so there will be plenty of
sunshine.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...14/141 PM.

A switch to onshore flow on Sunday will likely bring a return to
the coastal morning marine layer cloud deck. The onshore flow will
also bring 3 to 5 degrees of cooling up and down the csts/vlys.

Long wave troffing will move over the area on Monday bringing more
marine layer clouds and stronger onshore flow. Max temps will fall
4 to 8 locally 10 degrees and end up 6 to 12 degrees blo normals.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1515Z.

At 15Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

For KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, KSBA...Moderate confidence in off and on
again -SHRA through the afternoon, with MVFR/VFR common. There is
a 20% chance of brief RA IFR. 30% chance of LIFR FG 10-16Z at
KPRB.

For KWJF, KPMD moderate confidence in MVFR -RA through early
afternoon then VFR.

For all other airports, moderate confidence in IFR/MVFR common
through the morning. +RA with gusty and erratic winds are
possible at any time. MVFR/VFR -SHRA will follow through
mid-afternoon. Low confidence on exact timing.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in west wind shift happening
1630-1700Z. IFR/MVFR RA will be common through 18-19Z. Low
confidence on other details. After 19-20Z, MVFR/VFR -SHRA through
22-24Z. VFR after.

KBUR...IFR RA will be common through 18-19Z. Low confidence on
other details. After 19-20Z, MVFR/VFR -SHRA through 22-24Z. VFR
after. 20% chance of LIFR FG 10-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...14/151 PM.

Showers may continue into the evening, but impacts are likely to
be minimal. Choppy seas may continue into tonight, but conditions
will be generally below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through
Wednesday morning. Then SCA northwest winds are likely for the
waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island and the
western Santa Barbara Channel Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday Night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for
      zones 376>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this
      afternoon for zone 377. (See LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...RK
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox