499
FXUS66 KLOX 040335
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
835 PM PDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...03/707 PM.

A major and long lasting heat wave is expected to persist
through all of next week with dangerously hot temperatures.
Clouds and dense fog are expected over portions of the coastal
waters tonight into Sunday morning, most likely over the waters
off the Central Coast. There is a small chance the fog will move
onshore over the Central Coast beaches tonight as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...03/834 PM.

***UPDATE***

Temperatures today were in the 90s to 100s... as is expected for
the next few days. These temperatures are up to 10 degrees above
normal for this time of year along the Central Coast and the
Antelope Valley, but 10 to 20 degrees, locally higher, above
normal for the remainder of the area. Only Burbank and NWS Oxnard
broke records today, though several stations were within a few
degrees of their daily records.

Light offshore flow, with sub-advisory level winds is expected to
continue through tomorrow, keeping the marine layer clouds away
from the coasts south of Point Conception, and near the immediate
coasts of the Central Coast overnight. Additionally, the offshore
flow will contribute to warm overnight lows, leading to little
relief from the oppressive heat. Conditions will be extremely
similar tomorrow as what happened today, and temperatures will
continue to be within a few degrees of their daily records for a
lot of the area.

Forecast looks to be in shape and no evening updates were needed.


***From Previous Discussion***

The forecast through the coming week has really not changed at all
as strong high pressure will maintain its grip over the region.
Adding to this is the 2-4mb offshore gradient which is the main
driver pushing this heat all the way to the coast. Ensemble
gradient forecasts indicate a very slow onshore trend, basically
less than a half millibar per day. So at least in the short term,
cooling will be negligible. And even in areas that do cool
slightly it really won`t be perceivable. With this in mind the
heat advisory for areas north of Pt Conception has been extended
through Wednesday evening. And all other heat hazards remain in
place through at least Thursday. There will be a few records this
week, mainly near the coast as most inland areas are not quite
reaching record territory.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...03/106 PM.

The hot weather will continue all of next week with a very slow
cooling trend, (1-2 degrees per day), and mainly just near the
coast. Cooling for interior areas will won`t begin until Friday so
there is a 20-30% chance that at least some heat advisories will
be needed on Friday. More significant and widespread cooling is
expected next Saturday and continuing into early the next week.
Recent model trends are indicating at least a 20-30% chance of
some showers next weekend based on the latest ensemble tracks of
Hurricane Rachel. Some increasing swells from Rachel are possible
as early as mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...04/0204Z.

At 2355Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a weak
surfaced based inversion with a top at 1500 ft and a temp of 32
C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for all sites except for KSBP & KSMX.
Chances of VLIFR/LIFR conds between 04/09Z-16Z for these sites is
10-20%.

KLAX...High confidence in the VFR 00Z TAF. Less than 10% chance of
any low CIGs or VSBY, but if it were to occur, VLIFR/LIFR conds
likely. East wind component likely a touch stronger tomorrow
morning peaking 04/12Z-18Z nearing 7-8kts.

KBUR...High confidence in the VFR 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...03/744 PM.

Generally quiet conditions expected across the coastal waters
through the forecast period. Localized Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
gusts may occur each afternoon and evening between Point
Conception and San Nicolas Island, off the coast of Point Dume,
and across the San Pedro Channel.

&&

.BEACHES...03/745 PM.

Quiet conditions are expected through the weekend, aside from the
heat. Meanwhile, another hurricane (Rachel) will likely bring a
larger- than- Polo southerly swell to southern California for
much of the coming work week. The window of most concern is
Tuesday through Friday. Elevated surf up to 5-6 ft is likely with
a lower chance of high surf 7 ft or higher across exposed south
facing beaches. High tides of 6.5-7.0 ft are expected. Unlike
previous events, morning and evening tides will be similar in
height. Initially, the swell will have a more SE direction
(150-160) targeting areas like Long Beach Tuesday and Wednesday.
As Rachel moves westward, the swell direction will become more
southerly (170-190) Thursday and Friday targeting areas like Zuma.
There is a high risk for Beach Hazard Statements and a moderate
risk for Coastal Flood Advisories and High Surf Advisories along
the LA/VTA coastline. Stay tuned for future updates.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for
      zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>375-548-550. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for zones
      341>345-347-348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KL
AVIATION...Ciliberti
MARINE...Black/Ciliberti
BEACHES...Black/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox