580
FXUS66 KLOX 161734
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1034 AM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...16/211 AM.

A light Santa Ana pattern will occur today and Friday and will
bring much warmer temperatures and some locally breezy northeast
winds. Dry weather will continue into next week but with cooler
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...16/738 AM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate clear skies
across the area except for some stratus/dense fog across interior
sections. Current sounding data indicates surface-based inversion.
As for winds, some locally gusty northeasterly winds, gusting
20-35 MPH, are observed in the favored passes and canyons.

For the immediate short term, no significant issues are expected.
Current interior clouds/fog should dissipate by late morning with
sunny skies for all areas this afternoon. Northeasterly winds this
morning will weaken through the day as surface gradients turn
weakly onshore. As for temperatures, latest TEMP STUDY data
indicates today should be noticeably warmer with weak offshore
pressure gradients this morning and a warmer boundary layer.
Valleys should climb into the mid 70s to lower 80s this afternoon.

Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short
term. So, no significant updates are expected.

***From Previous Discussion***

Very little to talk about for the short term aside from some
winds.

Currently skies are clear as all of cold air has wiped out the
marine inversion. There is about 1 mb of offshore flow from the
east and 4 mb from the north. This offshore push will generate
some sub advisory 20 to 30 mph winds through some northerly
oriented passes and canyons. The most notable effect of the
offshore push will be on the temperatures. Almost all areas will
see 5 to 10 degrees of warming today. Despite the warming max
temps will end up 3 to 6 degrees below normal across the csts/vlys
and 5 to 10 degrees across the mtns and interior.

Overnight and into Friday morning 4mb of offshore flow will
develop from both the N and E. At the same time the upper level
flow will also turn to the NE. A stronger Santa Ana will develop
right along the typical wind corridor (Santa Clarita Vly to Mugu
NAS). Right now it looks like the gusts will come in just under
advisory criteria but if there is just a little more upper level
support there will likely be low end advisory level gusts between
35 and 45 mph. Max temps will bump up another 3 to 6 degrees
(higher across the interior of SLO and SBA counties). Most max
temps will still remain a few degrees under normal.

A little ridge will nose in from the west on Saturday. More
importantly the offshore flow will relax and will only be half as
strong as it was on Friday. Skies will remain sunny most areas
will warm a few more degrees, but the coasts will cool a degree or
two as an earlier sea breeze arrives.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...16/250 AM.

There is better mdl agreement in the xtnd fcst today. Both the GFS
and EC as well as most ensembles agree that Srn CA will remain in
an upper air no man`s land with broad troffing to the N as cut off
low to the SW and a weak ridge to the SE. This pattern will
continue through Tuesday. Decent onshore flow returns both to the
east and north and this along with a little warming in the lower
atmosphere will reestablish the marine inversion and night through
morning low clouds look likely. The onshore flow will bring 2 to 3
degrees of cooling to the csts vlys on Sunday. Stronger onshore
flow and some cool air from the interior will drop most max temps
4 to 6 degrees on Monday. This will make most of the cst/vly max
temps in the 70s with just a few 80-81 degree readings. Tuesday
will look very similar to Monday with maybe a degree or two of
warming as hgts nudge up a tad.

The upper low that had been spinning to the SW will finally begin
to move Tuesday night and it will transverse San Diego county
during the day on Wednesday. Not expecting it to affect the
weather much with only minimal changes to the marine layer and
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1733Z.

At 1654Z, the marine layer depth was 1000 ft. There was a weak
inversion to 2500 ft with a temperature of 16 C.

High confidence in VFR conditions, except for at KPRB, where there
is a 40% chance for VFR conditions. High confidence in winds at
all sites except for moderate confidence at KPRB, KSBP, and KSMX.
Northeast winds (up to 20 knots) may surface at KSBP/KSMX through
00Z, and again from 06Z through the end of the period. LLWS is
possible at KSBP, KSMX, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, and KVNY through the
period, especially if winds remain aloft and do not surface.
Light to moderate turbulence is possible, especially over any
mountain terrain.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR TAF with no wind issues.

KBUR....High confidence in VFR conditions. Light to moderate LLWS
and turbulence (especially over mountainous terrain) is possible
as northeast winds within 2000 ft of the surface will be in the
30-40 knot range, but these winds are not expected to surface.

&&

.MARINE...16/746 AM.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and outside the southern California bight, Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) level northwest winds will continue across the waters from
Point Sal south to San Nicolas Island through Friday morning. For
the waters nearshore from Point Piedras Blancas south to Point Sal
and out to 60 NM, northwest winds will increase to SCA levels by
mid- day, continuing into tonight. Conditions will remain
relatively calm Friday through the weekend, except for localized
northeast winds 20-25 knots nearshore from Morro Bay south to
Pismo Beach early Friday morning into the early afternoon. There
is a moderate chance for SCA conditions early next week, but
confidence in low as models have been trending seas smaller.

Inside the southern California bight, winds are expected to remain
below SCA levels through early next week, with the exception of
localized nearshore north to northeast SCA level winds between
Point Mugu and Santa through late this morning, and between Rincon
Point and Point Dume Friday morning, with low chances Saturday
morning. With the localized nature of the winds, any chance of a
Small Craft Advisory issuance is very low.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/Thompson
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox