846
FXUS66 KLOX 041015
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
315 AM PDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...03/1158 PM.

Temperatures will hover around normal through Tuesday, then warm
up sharply Wednesday and Thursday to around 10 degrees above
normal especially inland of the coast. Limited low clouds and fog
likely through Monday or Tuesday. Gusty Sundowner and I-5 winds to
continue through Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...04/314 AM.

Much less marine layer stratus this morning. Skies are mostly
clear across most of the area with just some low clouds across
western SBA county and southern LA county. Aside from the low
clouds there will be enough high clouds in the afternoon to make
the skies partly cloudy. Areas of smoke will continue over most of
SBA county as well. The general lack of low clouds will allow for
some warming across the csts and vly but the north push will cool
the interior by 3 to 6 degrees. All max temps will end up 3 to 6
degrees under normals.

The Sundowner winds will increase again over the western portion
of the SBA south coast and the current wind advisory for 45 mph
gusts will continue until 300 AM Tuesday. Sub advisory but still
gusty winds will develop from the I-5 Corridor to the Tehachapi
Mountains.

The big upper high to east will move a little closer to state on
Tuesday. The day will start off partly cloudy ocnl mostly cloudy
due to mid and high clouds passing overhead. The clouds will
lessen the amount of radiative cooling which will hinder marine
layer stratus development. The only location where low clouds will
be likely is the LA county south coast. Most areas will see 1 to 3
degrees of warming.

Forecasting a return of low clouds to most csts (the 592 hgts
should keep the marine layer under 1000 ft and out of the vlys)
Tuesday night. Getting the return of the low clouds after their
absence is tricky and there could be less clouds than fcst.

A warm up will start on Wednesday as the upper high strengthens
and hgts climb to at least 594 dam and possibly 596 dam. Onshore
flow will remain so the warm up will be strongest away from the
csts. Expecting 2 to 4 degrees of warming across the coasts and 3
to 6 degrees elsewhere. This warming will push many interior areas
to 4 to 6 degrees over normal with 90s in the vlys and 100-103
degree readings in the western San Fernando Vly.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...04/314 AM.

Thursday will be the hottest day of the next 7. The upper high
will strengthen and shift a little to the west increasing the hgts
over the area. Onshore flow will continue over the area but it
will be weaker than the previous days. Most areas will see 2 to 4
degrees of warming due to the warming atmosphere. Most areas will
end up 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Two exceptions will be the
San Gabriel Vly, San Fernando Vly and Calabasas area where max
temps will be 10 to 12 degrees above normal; the other is the
Central Coast which will end up near normal. Look for max temps in
the vlys to range from 95 to 106 degrees. The deserts will also
sizzle with max temps from 105 to 107 degrees. While heat
advisories look likely for most of the LA Vly, other areas may
need consideration as we get closer to the event.

The upper high will weaken slightly on Friday. Onshore flow will
also increase (esp across the Central Coast). These two trends
will combine to lower max temps 1 to 3 degrees except 3 to 6
degrees across the Central Coast due to the stronger sea breeze.

More onshore flow and further weakening of the upper high will
bring further cooling to all areas Saturday. The only triple digit
heat will be found in the Antelope Vly while the warmest vly
locations. The warmest vly locations will reach the mid 90s.

The upper high will wobble back to the west next Sunday and most
areas will see a few degrees of warming.

&&

.AVIATION...04/0940Z.

Around 08Z, the marine layer depth was around 500 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the marine inversion was near 1800 feet with a
temperature around 23 degrees Celsius. There was another inversion
above up to around 3000 feet.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast for coastal terminals
south of KNTD and north of Point Conception. Higher confidence for
remaining terminals. There is a low chance of VFR conditions
lingering for coastal terminals south of KNTD and north of Point
Conception through at least 08Z Tuesday. There is a moderate to
high chance of LIFR conditions, highest north of Point
Conception through 16Z this morning and again after 08Z Tuesday.

KLAX...There is a 20 percent chance of VFR conditions lingering.
There is a 30 percent chance of LIFR conditions through 16Z and
again after 08Z Tuesday. Any easterly winds will remain less than
7 knots.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. No wind
impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.MARINE...04/235 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Higher
confidence in the current forecast for seas. Less confidence in
the current forecast for winds.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Island
and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is a 40 to
70 percent of GALES through this afternoon then increasing to a 60
to 100 percent through late this evening. Winds will diminish some
overnight tonight and into early Tuesday, but SCA conditions will
definitely persist into Tuesday night. There is a 50 to 70
percent chance of SCA conditions lingerning between Wednesday and
Friday, especially during the afternoon and evening.

Inside the southern California bight, there is a 40 to 60 percent
chance of SCA level winds continuing through Tuesday night,
highest across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel.
Local SCA wind gusts could also develop at times near Point Dume
and into the San Pedro Channel. For mid-to-late week, winds and
seas should fall below SCA levels.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 AM PDT early this
      morning for zone 352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox