371
FXUS66 KLOX 072332
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
332 PM PST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...07/118 PM.

Scattered light rain showers will continue into the afternoon
with a little more sunshine on tap during the afternoon. Weak to
locally moderate gusty north to northeast winds are expected
tonight through the weekend. Dry weather will return over the
weekend into early next week with below normal temperatures
persisting. Another storm is slated to arrive around the middle of
next week and bring another round of rain and mountain snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...07/221 PM.

Scattered light rain showers are still lingering around the region
with the majority of areas seeing no rain. Skies are still partly
cloudy in most locations and will continue through the night as
moisture from the passing storm sticks around. A slight chance of
rain/snow showers will be possible tonight into Saturday morning for
the northern slopes of the interior mountains around the Kern
County line. The lowering snow levels down to 5500 to 6500 feet
could bring a little higher potential for snow on higher roadways
like Lockwood Valley Road, but any accumulations will be minimal.
Drier weather will make a return by Saturday morning, and persist
into early next week.

With the drier weather and the lack of clouds, high temperatures
should warm a few degrees each day, but generally remain in the
50s to 60s, which is below normal for this time of year. Low
overnight temperatures will be on the colder side falling into the
30s and low 40s away from the coast, and the high 20s for the
interior areas (such as portions of the Antelope Valley, higher
elevation mountains, and Southern Salinas Valley). However,
immediate coasts south of Point Conception will be in the low to
mid 50s.

Winds will shift northerly this evening, as the surface pressure
gradients start to trend more offshore, favoring more of the LAX-
BFL northerly gradient. A wind advisory was issued for the I-5
Corridor due to gusty north winds tonight into Saturday night. The
western portion of the Santa Ynez Range may need an advisory for
tonight, but current guidance suggests it winds will be just below
that 45 mph threshold and since this is a fairly common occurrence,
held off for now. Saturday evening winds will start to strengthen
as the LAX-BFL gradient peaks around -6 to -7 mb, and late
Saturday night into Sunday morning, winds will shift more
northeasterly as the LAX-DAG gradient strengthens to -5 to -6 mb.
Winds of 25 to 45 mph are possible during Sat evening through Sun
morning across the mountains of the four coastal counties from SLO
to LA (including southeast Santa Barbara South Coast and eastern
Santa Ynez Range). These winds would fall under a weak to locally
moderate Santa Ana event, and with the recent rains, fire weather
concerns are minimal.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...07/327 PM.

A dry and cool weather pattern will persist into early next week,
before another storm system moves into the region mid- week.
While the majority of models still have some disagreement on
timing and amounts, they are starting to converge on timing of
highest rainfall being Wednesday night into Thursday morning
timeframe for San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties, with
Thursday morning into Friday morning for Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties.

Both the EC and GFS deterministic runs and majority of EC
ensemble members show an upwards of 1 inch PWATs at the coasts.
Meanwhile, the GFS ensemble members are drier, but starting to
trend toward 1 to 1.2 inches. All this to say, is that both models
and their ensembles suggest there will be plenty of moisture to
work with. While there still is a decent spread in totals for the
GFS and EC and their ensembles (with the GFS trending drier as it
has been lately), recent guidance has been trending toward the
higher storm total amounts. Very early WPC and NBM QPF estimates
suggest a 1 to 2 inch storm across the coastal and valley areas
with up to between 2 and 4 inches across the mountains. While this
is the best early estimate for LA and Ventura Counties, there is
a 30% chance that these totals could be double those amounts,
while there is a 60% chance for double the amounts for San Luis
Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties. The forecast emphasizes the
mean rainfall timing and amounts and goes along with the WPC
estimates at this point.

Should the storm follow the current forecast/more moderate
rainfall amounts there could be localized roadway flooding, rocks
on canyon roads, and minor/shallow debris flows. Should the models
continue to trend higher, we could see higher impacts with more
widespread flooding as well as more impactful issues in and around
recent burn scars.

&&

.AVIATION...07/2331Z.

At 2302Z at KLAX, there was a marine layer depth around 2100 ft,
with an inversion top at 3300 ft at 11 deg C.

Low confidence in TAFs for KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB due to uncertainty
in presence of low clouds tonight. There is a 40-50% chance for
these sites to remain VFR through the period, highest uncertainty
at KSMO. There is a 20-30% chance for IFR conds if low clouds
arrive.

Moderate to high confidence in remaining TAFs. Sites may bounce
between VFR and MVFR through 04Z with patchy clouds remaining in
the area behind the cold front, but MVFR conds are likely to be
short lived. There is a 20% chance for LIFR to IFR conds at KPRB
tonight between 08Z and 17Z. There is a 10-20% chance for IFR to
MVFR conds at KBUR and KVNY between 09Z and 17Z. Max wind gusts
may be off 5 to 10 kts through 15Z tonight for KPMD and KWJF, and
after 16Z for SLO County sites.

KLAX...Low confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 40% chance for
VFR conds to prevail through the period. If low clouds arrive,
there is a 20% chance for cigs BKN005-010. No significant east
wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Brief MVFR cigs are
possible through 04Z as patchy clouds remain in the area. There
is a 20% chance for IFR to MVFR conds between 09Z and 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...07/231 PM.

In the Outer Waters, NW Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds this
afternoon and will continue much of the time thru at least Tue
night. Winds may not reach SCA levels until late this afternoon in
zones PZZ673/670. There is a 30% chance of Gale force winds Sat
night thru Sunday morning, mainly in the southern two zones
(PZZ673/676).

In the Inner Waters N of Pt Sal, SCA level NW winds are likely
(50% chance) this afternoon/eve. SCA conds are likely (70%
chance), especially during the afternoon/eve hours Saturday thru
at least Tues night.

In the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA level W to NW winds are likely
(80% chance) thru late tonight. Chances are lower Sat through late
Mon (30-40% chance).

In the Inner Waters from Pt. Mugu to San Mateo Point, there is a
40-50% chance of SCA level W to NW winds this afternoon/eve, with
best chances in the northern and western portions of the zone.
Then there is a 30% chance for SCA level winds during the
afternoon/eve hours Sat thru late Mon, including nearshore NE
winds from Pt. Mugu to Malibu late Sat into Sun morning.

On Tuesday a shortwave trough will dip south into the region,
bringing a high chance (60-70% chance) of Gale Force winds across
the entirety of the coastal waters, including nearshore south of
Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM PST
      Sunday for zone 378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lund
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...DB/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Hall/KL

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox