146
FXUS66 KLOX 021046
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
246 AM PST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...02/155 AM.

Near normal temperatures are expected the next few days with
some breezy Santa Ana winds at times Wednesday and Thursday.
A significant warming trend will begin Sunday and continue into
the middle of next week with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...02/222 AM.

The upper level pattern across the eastern Pacific and the West
coast continues to favor storms riding up and over California and
down into the Great Basin. So while Monday`s Santa Ana is mostly
done, some lingering northeast winds still continue in the usual
favored areas. And another Santa Ana is on the way Wednesday and
Thursday. In the meantime, sub advisory level northeast winds will
continue through this morning before a brief period of neutral or
slight onshore flow develops this afternoon and evening with some
traditional west to northwest sea breezes developing. Afternoon
temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal but morning
lows will be chilly under a dry air mass and minimal marine
inversion. Frost Advisories and Freeze warnings are in effect for
the coldest interior areas including the Antelope Valley and
Cuyama valley. Overnight lows are expected to warm a few degrees
with the transition to onshore flow tonight.

A return to offshore flow will occur Wednesday and Thursday
following the next trough into the Great Basin. Like this last
event there isn`t a ton of upper level support but some low end
advisory level winds are possible in portions of the Ventura/LA
Valleys and mountains. This is another cooler Santa Ana event so
highs will still be mostly in the 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...02/245 AM.

A pattern shift will begin Friday and continue into next week as
an unseasonably strong high pressure system sets up over the
eastern Pacific. Latest models are indicating that the anticyclone
will peak at 592dam Friday morning which is pegging the 99th to
100th percentile in strength. While the high does weaken slightly
after that, it`s still at the 98th percentile as late as next
Tuesday. With this persistent strong ridging across the region
temperatures will be warming up quite a bit with warmest day
likely next Wednesday. In the meantime, highs will be 3-6 degrees
above normal this weekend, warming to 5-10 degrees above normal
next week. At this time not seeing any Santa Ana`s next week but
some increasing northerly flow is likely over the weekend which
could bring some gusty winds to some of the mountain areas.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1014Z.

Around 0930Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX, but there
was a surface-based inversion up to around 700 feet with a
temperature near 16 degrees Celsius.

VFR conditions are expected through the period, except for a
moderate chance of MVFR visibilities or VLIFR conditions in dense
fog at Los Angeles County terminals and KPRB through 16Z. There is
a low to moderate chance of moderate turbulence through 14Z at
Los Angeles County valley and Ventura County terminals.

KLAX...There is a 30 percent chance of MVFR visibilities or VLIFR
conditions through 16Z, otherwise VFR conditions are expected
through the period. Any easterly winds will remain less 7 knots.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through period. There is a 10
percent chance of moderate turbulence through 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...02/214 AM.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast. The latest
observations indicate seas running higher than progged. Meanwhile,
there is less confidence in an offshore wind event Wednesday
night through Thursday, which could affect the nearshore coastal
waters.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and beyond 30 NM of the Central Coast, winds and seas will likely
remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through this
afternoon, then there is a 50 to 60 percent chance of SCA level
seas developing tonight through Wednesday afternoon or evening.
Winds and seas should mostly remain below SCA levels Thursday
through Saturday, with winds increasing to near SCA levels at
times, mainly Friday night and Saturday night.

For the nearshore waters, waters inside 30 NM off the Cental
Coast, and across the southern California bight, winds and seas
will likely remain below SCA levels through Wednesday afternoon,
then there is a 30 to 50 percent chance of SCA level winds with
short-period seas developing on Wednesday night and Thursday
morning. Thereafter, winds and seas are expected to generally
remain below SCA levels through Saturday.

&&

.BEACHES...01/806 PM.

A long period west-northwest swell will bring building surf
to Southwest California Tuesday through Thursday morning. High
Surf Advisories have been issued across the Central Coast (8 to 12
feet) and Ventura coastline (7 feet). Surf heights up to 6 feet
can be expected elsewhere. Also, very high tides of 7 to 7.7
(MLLW) are expected across all beaches.

The combination of the long period swell and high tides could
result in beach erosion with isolated minor coastal flooding,
especially for west- northwest facing beaches from 4 AM to 12 PM
Tuesday through Thursday.

The Ventura coastline has the greatest overlap of high tides and
surf heights on Wednesday. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Advisory
has been issued from 3AM to 10AM for enhanced impacts. Please
see CFWLOX for more details. However, minor tidal overflow will be
possible during times of high tides Tuesday through Thursday in
low lying areas near the beach.

Beach Hazard statements have been issued for Santa Barbara
and LA County Coastline from Tuesday through Saturday morning.
Elevated surf will be highest Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Frost Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM PST this morning
      for zone 38. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Thursday for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Freeze Warning remains in effect until 8 AM PST this morning
      for zones 344-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday morning
      for zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST Thursday for zone
      354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 10 AM PST
      Wednesday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PST Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      PM PST Wednesday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 3 PM PST
      Wednesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
BEACHES...Black/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox