684
FXUS66 KLOX 070108
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
508 PM PST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...06/121 PM.

A storm system will deliver a mix of sun and showers today with
some gusty winds at times. Dry and warmer weather is expected
Friday through the weekend, then another series of storm systems
will bring more rain and mountain snow to the region next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...06/136 PM.

Showers starting to increase again this afternoon as the air mass
becomes a little more unstable. Radars have been showing a large
area of mostly light rain rounding Pt Conception and moving
through the Channel Islands, along with some other random showers
around the area. Also watching for potential thunderstorms across
SLO and northern Santa Barbara Counties into early evening.
Overall, still not expecting rain rates that would pose any
issues other than some wet roads. Expecting showers to taper off
overnight, with just a small chance of lingering showers early
Friday around the Grapevine region as post-frontal northerly flow
pushes up against the north facing mountains. With temperatures
dropping rapidly in the mountains tonight there still could be
some light snow down to 3500-4000 feet, resulting in some icy
roads there.

For Friday and beyond, lots of clear skies and warming
temperatures, especially over the weekend as high pressure aloft
moves over the state. Expecting highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s
by Saturday and a little warmer still Sunday.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...06/223 PM.

Still looking like an active weather pattern next week with at
least two storms coming through. The first one is mostly cutoff,
though models are showing remarkable agreement with the timing,
arriving late Monday into early Tuesday. One slight change noted
today is the upper low appears to be sliding a little farther to
the south, and there are several ensemble solutions indicating
higher rain amounts south of Pt Conception than north with this
first system. Once the models have indicated a farther south
trajectory it`s unusual for them to shift back to the north, and
if anything it could shift even farther to the south. So still a
fair amount of uncertainty with storm #1 next week, but growing
confidence in bigger impacts for the southern part of the CWA,
namely south of Pt Conception. Models pretty consistent with the
departure of the storm as well, exiting no later than Tuesday
afternoon. Rain amounts will likely be higher than the average
winter storm, but if it moves through as quickly as the current
models indicate, rain totals in most areas should be around an
inch, possibly up to 2" in the mtns.

Based on today`s models there`s about a 24-36 hour break before
storm #2 arrives later Wednesday into Thursday. By most accounts
this one looks like the stronger of the two with colder air aloft,
higher PW`s, and just a more dynamic system overall with stronger
south winds leading to a much greater orographic component. This
could be a 1-2" coast/valleys, 2-4" foothills/mountains type of
storm with the possibility of significant snow accumulations in
the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...07/0107Z.

At 2358Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

Moderate confidence in TAF package. Gusty west to northwest winds
will impact the region through at least 06Z at most sites. Wind
speeds may be off by +/-5 kts during peak winds.

SHRA may lead to periods of IFR to MVFR cigs/ vsbys, with low
confidence in any particular locations. Rain threat will be over
across the region by 06Z, with a 20% chance of showers lingering
through 12Z for LA County sites. There is a 5-10% chance of
isolated tstorms for all airfields thru 06Z. Any thunderstorm may
bring locally gusty and erratic winds.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Wind speeds may be off by +/-5
kts during peak winds. BKN008-BKN025 cigs are possible through
06Z during SHRA. There is a 5-10% chc of a Tstorm until 06Z as
well. There is a 30% chance of the east wind component reaching 8
kt between 13Z and 19Z.

KBUR....Moderate confidence in TAF.BKN008-BKN025 cigs are
possible through 06Z during SHRA. There is a 5-10% chc of a tstorm
until 06Z as well.

&&

.MARINE...06/208 PM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level W-NW winds are expected to
continue much of the time thru late Friday night across the Outer
Waters. Winds may be just below advisory levels from late this
morning through the afternoon hours, but seas should remain at SCA
levels during this period. In the Inner Waters south of Point
Conception, SCA conds are expected thru Friday evening and for
the Inner Waters north of Point Sal (PZZ645), there is a 30-40%
chance for local SCA level gusts overnight, then there is a 50-60%
chance of SCA winds Friday afternoon through the evening.

Seas will be hazardous and steep across much of the waters thru
Friday night.

Conditions will then be below SCA levels Saturday thru Sunday
night. Two more storm systems will impact the coastal waters next
week, with the first arriving Monday, followed by the second
system arriving Wednesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM PST
      this evening for zones 353-376>380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM
      PST Friday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Friday
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Friday for
      zones 650-655-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Schoenfeld/Smith
MARINE...Black/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox