138
FXUS66 KLOX 032337
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
437 PM PDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...03/119 PM.

Showers are likely today with possible thunderstorms across the
mountains and spilling into the valleys and even parts of the
coast. Though some areas, especially the coastal areas, will
remain dry. Dry weather is expected starting Friday and lasting
through next week. A strong warming trend will begin Friday and
will continue through late next week with only a one day break on
Monday. Well above normal temperatures are very likely next
Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 90s expected across the
valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...03/143 PM.

Showers are blossoming across the mountains as of 1pm so things
are on track for this afternoon with showers and isolated storms
eventually spilling into coastal valleys and parts of the coast as
well. HREF still indicating the potential for as much as a half
inch per hour across the northern San Fernando Valley and San
Gabriel Valley as the storms make their way south from the
mountains. CAPE values between 400-600 J/km are pretty high for
our area and certainly worth paying close attention to.
Thunderstorms are a strong possibility as well with gusty winds
and possibly small hail as well. Wouldn`t want to totally exclude
those rates from other areas but certainly confidence is a little
higher there due to the mountain proximity and at least a few
consistent runs favoring that area.

Outside of those areas, lighter showers are expected all the way
from the Central Coast through Santa Barbara County, the Ventura
Mountains and spilling over into the northern Ventura County
valleys, the Santa Monica Mountains, as well as Downtown LA and
possibly even towards the coast.

Shower chances tomorrow appear to be remote at best as models now
are showing the upper low and the instability moving too far south
and east. So for now the forecast Friday through Sunday is for
dry conditions with a warming trend as high pressure builds in
from the west. Possibly some breezy northerly winds at times
through the Santa Ynez Range and I5 corridor.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...03/221 PM.

The xtnd forecast is all about the heat. The ridge will peak on
Sunday and then will be knocked down some on Monday as a trof
passes well to north. The lower hgts will make Monday the only day
of the 4 that does not see warming temps. A stronger ridge builds
in starting Tuesday and peaking Wednesday and Thursday. Highs are
expected to climb into 70s to low 80s for coastal areas and mid
80s to mid 90s in the valleys with at least a 5-10% chance of
reaching 100 in the western San Fernando Valley Wed/Thu. There`s
reasonable chance of heat advisories at least in the LA/Ventura
valleys both those days. Overnight lows will also be warming up,
especially in the foothills.

Weak offshore flow will continue through the period. Skies will be
mostly clear. The forecast does not contain any low clouds but
there is 20 to 30 percent chc of some clouds each morning esp over
Srn LA county and western SBA county.

&&

.AVIATION...03/2336Z.

At 2326Z at KLAX, there was no marine inversion or marine layer.

Low to moderate confidence in Ventura and Los Angeles County TAFs
until 05Z. There is a 10-50% chance for thunderstorms at all
sites through 05Z, with highest chances at KBUR and KVNY through
03Z, lower chances for coastal sites including KLAX.

High confidence in all TAFs after 05Z. There is a 20-30% chance
of MVFR/IFR conditions 10Z-18Z at KSMO/KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 15% chance of
showers and thunderstorms through 03Z. For tonight, there is a
20% chance of MVFR/IFR CIGs/VSBYs 10Z-18Z. No significant east
wind component expected.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Low confidence through
05Z due to there being a 50% chance of thunderstorms through 03Z,
then a 20% chance between 03Z to 05Z.

&&

.MARINE...03/1217 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight
through Friday night, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will
continue. For Saturday and Sunday, winds and seas will remain
below SCA levels. From Sunday night through Tuesday, a combination
of SCA level winds and seas are expected.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight, there is a 60-70% chance
of SCA level winds. On Friday, there is a 40% chance of SCA level
winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For Saturday and Sunday,
high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. From
Sunday night through Tuesday, there is a 60-80% chance of a
combination of SCA level winds and seas (with the strongest winds
in the afternoon and evening hours).

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern
Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below
SCA levels through Tuesday. The only exception will be the western
half of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 70% chance of SCA level
winds this evening...a 30% chance of SCA level winds late Friday
afternoon/evening and a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds Monday
and Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Dense fog may develop this upcoming weekend, especially in the
evening to morning hours, in response to a ridge building over
the region.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox