339
FNUS73 KLOT 171159
FWSLOT

Spot Forecast for Mnoke East Rx...NPS
National Weather Service Chicago IL
659 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (815) 834-0666 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Strong south-southeast winds are expected to develop today, with
gusts in excess of 30 mph this afternoon. An axis of isolated to
scattered high-based showers and perhaps a thunderstorm may drift
northeastward across the burn site this afternoon, so not every
location will see rain today.

Dew points are expected to slowly increase this morning, then
quickly increase mid afternoon with the potential shower activity.
Minimum RH values of 35 to 40 percent at the burn site may be
reached early in the afternoon before values rise mid to late
afternoon. Mixing heights should also peak early in the
afternoon, though values may be quite variable given broken cloud
cover and the potential for showers.

Dry conditions are favored tonight and most of Friday amid
continued breezy south to southwest winds. Though the forecast
shows a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday, any
activity will be quite sparse.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........57 at ignition...Max 64.
RH..................45 percent at ignition...Min 37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 17 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 17 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Transport winds.....South 24 to 27 mph increasing to around to 30
                    mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3200 ft
                    AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /40700 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /85200 knot-ft/.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........71  78  83  87  89  88  88
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Temp............57  60  62  64  62  59  57
RH..............45  41  39  37  43  53  59
20 FT wind dir..170 170 180 180 180 180 170
20 FT wind spd..17  17  17  18  20  20  20
20 FT wind gust.28  29  30  31  32  32  35
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.2 2.5 2.0
Transp wind dir.170 170 180 180 180 180 170
Transp wind spd.24  26  29  30  31  31  30
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  20  20  50  40  40
Vrate kt-ft/1K..41  59  78  82  85  68  51

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
                    Chance of rain showers and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Temperature.........Min 55.
RH..................Max 77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 20 mph with gusts to around
                    35 mph.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Transport winds.....South 25 to 30 mph.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (30100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to fair (19100 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........88  87  83  81  80  83  84  82  78  74  65  50
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Temp............57  56  55  55  55  55  55  56  56  56  56  56
RH..............59  64  64  64  64  64  64  62  64  66  69  72
20 FT wind dir..170 160 160 160 160 160 170 170 170 180 180 180
20 FT wind spd..20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  18  18  18  18
20 FT wind gust.35  33  32  32  32  32  31  31  31  30  30  29
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9
Transp wind dir.170 160 160 160 160 160 170 170 170 180 180 180
Transp wind spd.28  25  26  28  29  30  30  30  29  26  25  25
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  20  20  20  20  10  10  10  10  10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..30  21  21  19  25  24  19  23  24  22  21  21

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Slight chance of rain showers. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 81.
RH..................Min 45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 17 to 20 mph with gusts to
                    around 36 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Transport winds.....South 25 to 29 mph shifting to the southwest 30
                    to 35 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (20600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (113500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........45  45  48  53  55  60  63  64  67  71  75  78
Weather cov.....    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Temp............56  57  60  63  66  71  77  79  80  80  80  80
RH..............77  77  75  72  70  59  50  47  47  45  45  45
20 FT wind dir..190 190 190 200 200 200 210 210 210 210 220 220
20 FT wind spd..18  18  18  20  20  21  21  22  21  21  21  20
20 FT wind gust.28  28  29  30  32  33  35  36  36  36  35  35
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.7 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.5 2.6
Transp wind dir.190 190 190 200 200 200 210 210 210 210 220 220
Transp wind spd.25  26  29  31  32  33  35  35  35  35  32  30
Chc of pcpn (%).10  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Vrate kt-ft/1K..21  22  36  48  60  79  98  112 114 113 97  66

$$
Forecaster...Kluber
Requested by...Eric S Anderson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2510853.0/LOT
.DELDT 04/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0