792
FXUS63 KLOT 101718
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1218 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of showers (30%) through this evening with a slight
  chance (20%) for thunder across northwest IL this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A weakening cold front will approach the area today and move
across the area tonight. A line of showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms that currently extends from southwest WI into
south central IA will move across northwest IL through mid
morning and is expected to slowly dissipate as it spreads across
eastern IL by early afternoon. Best thunder chances, which will
still be quite low, will be across northwest IL this morning and
included slight chance thunder mention for a few hours. Its
possible much of this activity will dissipate by early
afternoon, with perhaps just sprinkles/virga and pops show this
trend downward through the afternoon. There is some potential
for showers to redevelop this evening, mainly south of I-80 and
east of I-57. Current forecast has slight chance pops and
maintained those with this forecast.

Southwest winds will increase after sunrise with gusts possibly
into the 25-30 mph range for a time through early afternoon and
then speeds/gusts may diminish through the afternoon. Winds
will begin to shift westerly this evening and then shift
northerly with the cold front later this evening and overnight.

High temperatures today are tricky. The increasing clouds may
keep temps a bit cooler, perhaps mid 60s across northern IL but
if the clouds are not as thick and/or precip dissipates faster,
this may allow for warmer temperatures, which could warm into
the lower 70s across the southeast third of the cwa. Lows
tonight are also challenging. Despite the cold front, much of
guidance has warmed low temps several degrees for Saturday
morning. Have warmed temps a few degrees from the previous
forecast, but trends will need to be monitored.

Models continue to hint at lake effect rain showers Saturday but
the potential appears to be east of the area Saturday morning
with the best chance, and still very low, midday into Saturday
afternoon. Opted to keep the forecast dry for now.

Another weakening cold front will approach the area Monday and
appears similar to today`s cold front. Increasing cloud cover
with the best chance of showers across northwest IL with a
dissipating trend across the rest of the area. Blended pops are
mainly dry for this time period and maintained a dry forecast.

High pressure then appears to settle across the Great Lakes
region through the middle of next week which should keep the
area in easterly flow and generally dry. cms

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

No major forecast concerns are expected through the TAF period.

A cold front will continue to move through the area this
afternoon and evening resulting in some isolated
showers/sprinkles at times through 21-22z. Otherwise, expect
breezy southwest winds ahead of the front (gusts around 20 kts)
to ease and become northwesterly behind the front this evening.
Winds will finally become northeasterly Saturday morning and
remain as such for the remainder of the period with speeds
around 8-10 kts. As for the skies, BKN to OVC 3500-4500 ceilings
are expected this afternoon ahead of the front but will give way
to mostly clear skies tonight. Though, some VFR lake effect
clouds are expected to develop Saturday morning and linger at
the Chicago terminals through Saturday afternoon.

Yack

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Winthrop
     Harbor to Northerly Is. IL.

&&

$$

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