122
FXUS63 KLOT 021122
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
622 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Period of rain showers expected with a strong cold front
  Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few embedded non-severe
  thunderstorms are also possible.

- Below to well below normal temperatures are expected from
  Thursday through this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Through Wednesday Night:

Following some patchy early morning fog, one more quiet weather
day is anticipated across the area. Expect afternoon
temperatures today to be a couple of degrees warmer than those
observed on Monday, which should generally result in inland
readings topping out around 80 under partly cloudy afternoon
skies. However, similar to the past couple of days, weak
gradient flow will favor an inland shifting lake breeze that
will foster slightly cooler conditions (mid 70s) along the Lake
Michigan shore.

Wednesday is still shaping up to be our day of transition as
the well advertised large scale weather pattern shift across
North America sends a strong surface cold front across the area
through the day. Rain chances will ramp up with and behind this
front by mid to late morning across northwestern parts of IL,
then spread across the Chicago metro area and points south and
east through the afternoon and evening hours of Wednesday before
ending.

Ahead of the front, dewpoints across southern sections of the
area (mainly south of I-80) are forecast to mix out into the
lower 50s amidst air temperature rising into the lower 80s. The
net result will be limited instability within fairly deep
inverted-V profiles in advance of the front. While the overall
poor thermodynamic environment with and ahead of the front is
expected to curtail the threat of severe weather, lapse rates
look sufficient to support some instances of charge separation
in the clouds and hence the presence of isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms embedded within the larger area of
showers. The coverage of these showers will be rather widespread
for a short period Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday
evening, though the fast pace of the front is expected to limit
total precipitation amounts (generally an inch or less in most
locations).

Robust cold advection in the wake of the front will shove a
notably cooler airmass into the region late Wednesday night into
Thursday. Temperatures by early Thursday morning are currently
forecast to fall into the low 40s across parts of northwest
Illinois, with mid to upper 40s favored elsewhere.

KJB


Thursday through Monday:

In the wake of Wednesday`s cold frontal passage, an
unseasonably cool air mass will settle into the region. Early
morning temperatures in the 40s and low 50s on Thursday look to
warm only into the 60s during the afternoon, which for most
locations, would make Thursday the first day to feature high
temperatures cooler than 70F since late May.

Another pronounced upper-level trough presently located over
Alaska will largely retrace the footsteps of the mid-week polar
trough and dive southeastward into Great Lakes late Thursday
into Friday. The strong dynamics associated with this
disturbance are likely to induce another round of precipitation
across the Midwest as it moves through. For our CWA, Thursday
night into early Friday appears to be the favored time frame for
this precipitation to occur, though depending on the strength
and track of an associated surface low, it is possible that some
locations (particularly in our southern/southeastern counties)
could miss out on this round of precipitation. A period of gusty
westerly winds can also be expected behind a reinforcing cold
front on Friday. The magnitude of these winds will likewise be
modulated by the precise evolution of the surface low, as will
Friday`s high temperatures, which could be a repeat of
Thursday`s temperatures or could end up being a little warmer
and closer to (but still below) early September normals, per
the latest ensemble and available MOS guidance.

Behind this reinforcing disturbance, surface high pressure
looks to settle back into the region over the weekend, favoring
another period of dry conditions with continued below normal
(though gradually warming) temperatures. Ensemble consistency
regarding the overall synoptic pattern evolution then breaks
down going into next week, resulting in lower-than-average
confidence in the forecast beyond Sunday.

Ogorek

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Key Messages:

- Potential for an easterly/northeasterly wind shift behind a
  lake breeze at ORD, MDW, and GYY this afternoon.


A lake breeze is expected to develop early this afternoon and
march inland a few miles before stalling out somewhere near ORD
and MDW. Behind the lake breeze, easterly to northeasterly winds
of up to around 10 kts are expected, but if the lake breeze
were to stall before fully traversing the MDW and ORD airfields,
then variable or westerly to west-southwesterly winds of around
5 kts would be favored to prevail instead.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
TAF period. Rain associated with an incoming cold front should
hold off until just beyond the end time of the current TAF
period, though winds should turn southwesterly and strengthen a
bit late in the TAF period as the front approaches from the
northwest.

Ogorek

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

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