828
FNUS73 KLMK 270944
FWSLMK

Spot Forecast for BGAD Muddy Creek...NBGIF
National Weather Service Louisville KY
544 AM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on March 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Mainly dry conditions likely through the morning
hours, with scattered light rain possible by late afternoon or
evening. The low level airmass remains fairly dry, so RH will
likely dip as low as 25 to 35 percent during the early to mid
afternoon hours. Southerly winds will be relatively light today.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Temperature.........47 at ignition...Max 64.
RH..................59 percent at ignition...Min 28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 3 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph
                    early in the afternoon, then becoming light
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4900 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /16600 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...fair
                    /48500 knot-ft/.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................24 early in the morning increasing to 65 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........19     30     45     71
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............47     57     62     63
RH..............59     35     28     30
20 ft wind......S 3    S 3    SW 4   SW 3
20 ft wind gust.5      6      6      6
Mix hgt (ft)....2400   4200   4900   4300
Transport wind..SW 8   SW 9   SW 12  W 12
LVORI...........2      1      1      1
ADI.............24     46     65     33
SDspl kt-ft/100017     33     49     43

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers through the night. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms overnight.
Temperature.........Min 50.
RH..................Max 77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph after 3
                    am. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the morning.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 10 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1200 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................3 to 30.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........78     91     89     88     73     72
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE S CHC  CHANCE S CHC  CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............62     56     53     52     52     52
RH..............38     55     64     66     69     71
20 ft wind......W 3    W 2    S 2    SE 3   S 3    S 4
20 ft wind gust.6      4      5      6      7      8
Mix hgt (ft)....2500   400    200    400    400    500
Transport wind..SW 10  SE 7   SE 9   S 10   S 10   S 13
LVORI...........2      3      3      3      3      3
ADI.............30     3      4      7      7      8
SDspl kt-ft/100023     3      2      4      4      6

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the morning, then slight chance of rain showers
                    late in the morning. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 77.
RH..................Min 43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 17 mph increasing to 23 to 28
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (99500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (107500
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................9 early in the morning increasing to 88 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........47     57     40     32     31     45
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC         S CHC  S CHC
Temp............53     54     61     69     74     76
RH..............66     77     65     56     50     44
20 ft wind......SW 5   SW 6   SW 8   SW 9   SW 10  SW 10
20 ft wind gust.10     8      11     13     14     14
Mix hgt (ft)....500    600    1200   3000   5000   5300
Transport wind..SW 14  SW 14  SW 23  SW 28  SW 28  SW 28
LVORI...........3      4      3      1      1      1
ADI.............9      14     37     88     85     87
SDspl kt-ft/10006      7      25     71     120    126

$$
Forecaster...EBW
Requested by...Dylan Abner
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2508121.0/LMK
.DELDT 03/27/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dylan.abner@nbgif.org