256
FNUS73 KLMK 032004
FWSLMK

Spot Forecast for Davis Bend...TNC
National Weather Service Louisville KY
304 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EST on November 04.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION... Warmer air and breezy conditions will be in place for
the start of the week. Highs will reach the upper 70s to near 80 both
on Monday and Tuesday as southerly winds will increase to between 10
to 20 mph and gusts near 25 mph with a few locations reaching 30 mph.
These southerly winds will also increase moisture over the area with
minimum RH values between 50 to 60 percent. Our next chance of
substantial rain appears to be late Tuesday as a cold front works into
the area from the west and then stalls for the middle of the week.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
Temperature.........72 at ignition...Max 77.
RH..................59 percent at ignition...Min 52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3500 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 26 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /64100 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /68800 knot-ft/.
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................53 to 69.

TIME (EST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........66  73  72  62  64  58  65
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............72  74  76  76  77  77  75
RH..............59  55  54  54  52  55  56
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  9   7
20 FT wind gust.14  14  14  14  14  14  13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.7 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.2 2.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.26  26  24  23  22  21  18
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............62  62  60  59  57  69  53
SDspl kt-ft/100064  68  67  69  66  58  39

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Temperature.........Min 62.
RH..................Max 86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4200 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................11 to 22.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........68  61  64  51  55  55  53  51  52  54  55  54
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............72  71  67  66  65  65  65  64  64  64  64  63
RH..............61  64  76  78  81  81  82  84  84  82  82  84
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.12  11  12  13  13  13  13  13  14  14  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.17  16  16  17  18  20  21  22  23  24  24  24
LVORI...........2   2   4   4   3   3   3   4   4   3   3   4
ADI.............19  11  15  15  16  17  19  20  20  21  22  22
SDspl kt-ft/100021  8   4   5   8   11  15  20  22  23  23  20

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 78.
RH..................Min 56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 12 mph with gusts to around 18
                    mph.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 22 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (18000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (113900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to good (51100 knot-ft)
                    early in the morning increasing to excellent
                    (119400 knot-ft) in the afternoon in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................22 early in the morning increasing to 88 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........53  52  45  39  32  31  30  29  36  43  50  52
Weather cov.....                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............62  62  65  68  71  73  75  77  78  78  77  76
RH..............86  86  82  77  71  66  61  58  57  56  57  60
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   7   8   9   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  9
20 FT wind gust.15  14  15  17  18  18  17  17  17  17  16  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.0 1.6 2.4 3.2 3.8 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.3 3.8 2.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.24  24  25  28  29  30  30  30  29  28  25  22
LVORI...........4   4   3   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............22  29  52  76  71  81  87  88  86  79  68  66
SDspl kt-ft/100018  21  35  57  80  99  114 119 117 104 83  51

$$
Forecaster...BTN
Requested by...FMO
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2425623.0/LMK
.DELDT 11/03/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL cminor@tnc.org