985
FNUS73 KLMK 281719
FWSLMK

Spot Forecast for Blanton Rx...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1219 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on March 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...Expect a mostly sunny and dry forecast for Saturday.
Cool temperatures could limit burn potential on Saturday, however
minimum relative humidity values and especially mixing heights
and transport winds will be favorable. Overall dispersion ends up
good to excellent through the afternoon. It does appear that the
good dispersion would keep smoke off of N County Road 350 W to the
east and southeast of the fire, with max surface temps being the
only factor hurting confidence a bit.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Temperature.........35 at ignition...Max 40.
RH..................56 percent at ignition...Min 34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 5 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 6 to 7
                    mph.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5800 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....North 16 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /58900 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /98600 knot-ft/.
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................83 early in the morning increasing to 127 in
                    the afternoon.

TIME (EST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........31  37  41  44  48  47  46  45  36
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............35  36  37  38  39  40  40  40  38
RH..............56  52  49  47  43  39  36  34  35
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   5   5   6   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.11  11  11  11  11  11  10  10  9
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 4.1 4.5 5.2 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.4
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.20  20  18  18  20  18  20  17  16
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............83  96  97  109 123 118 127 111 99
SDspl kt-ft/100059  70  72  83  95  91  99  85  75

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........Min 20.
RH..................Max 69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast 2
                    to 5 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (56700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................1 to 7.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........27  18  14  10  6   5   4   3   4   4   5   6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............36  33  31  29  28  27  26  25  24  23  22  21
RH..............38  43  47  51  55  57  59  60  61  63  65  68
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..4   3   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   0   0   0
20 FT wind gust.9   8   7   6   6   5   4   4   4   2   2   2
Mix hgt (kft)...4.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E
Transp wind spd.15  9   9   9   9   8   6   5   3   2   2   2
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............7   4   4   4   4   4   3   2   2   1   1   1
SDspl kt-ft/100057  6   4   5   6   4   4   3   2   2   1   1

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........Max 40.
RH..................Min 32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 6 mph shifting to the west 6 to
                    9 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (41000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................3 early in the morning increasing to 58 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........8      9      10     9      9      9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............21     23     29     34     38     39
RH..............69     60     44     37     33     32
20 ft wind......N 0    N 0    N 0    W 1    W 1    N 0
20 ft wind gust.1      1      2      4      4      2
Mix hgt (ft)....200    1000   3100   4100   4900   4700
Transport wind..S 3    SW 6   NW 7   W 8    W 9    W 9
LVORI...........3      3      2      1      1      1
ADI.............3      8      27     42     56     54
SDspl kt-ft/10001      5      18     28     37     38

$$
Forecaster...BJS
Requested by...Paul Fountain
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2504388.0/LMK
.DELDT 02/28/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL paul.fountain@usda.gov