Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
763
FGUS73 KLMK 272029
ESFLMK
FGUS73 KLMK 272025 ESFLMK INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-
KYC001-003-005-009-017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053-057-061-067-073-
079-085-087-091-093-097-099-103-111-113-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-
169-171-179-181-183-185-207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227-229-239-
280000-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Louisville KY
325 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2025
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...
This outlook covers south central Indiana, central Kentucky, and the
Ohio River from Madison, Indiana to Tell City, Indiana.
The flood risk in the middle of the Ohio Valley is normal to above
normal. Minor to moderate flooding is expected due to rainfall and
thunderstorms with isolated major flooding possible especially along
and south of the Ohio River.
This outlook is valid through May 2025.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/05/2025 - 06/03/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Barren River
Bowling Green 28.0 32.0 45.0 : 20 13 9 8 <5 <5
:Blue River
Fredericksburg 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 36 27 18 13 <5 <5
:Cumberland River
Burkesville 46.0 55.0 64.0 : 35 27 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton 24.0 35.0 42.0 : 44 34 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Elkhorn Creek
Peaks Mill 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 33 39 19 23 9 17
:Green River
Munfordville 28.0 50.0 57.0 : 24 24 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mammoth Cave 32.0 57.0 62.0 : 42 38 <5 <5 <5 <5
Rochester 37.0 45.0 50.0 : 63 <5 7 <5 <5 <5
Woodbury 26.0 38.0 41.0 : 68 69 15 17 8 7
:Kentucky River
Camp Nelson Lock 30.0 36.0 40.0 : 22 23 9 16 6 11
Frankfort Lock 31.0 35.0 40.0 : 11 12 <5 5 <5 <5
Ford Lock 26.0 35.0 40.0 : 20 19 5 <5 <5 <5
High Bridge Lock 30.0 36.0 39.0 : 15 17 7 7 <5 <5
Lockport Lock 33.0 43.0 49.0 : 23 34 7 8 <5 <5
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring 25.0 42.0 45.0 : 53 42 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy 25.0 28.0 32.0 : 37 19 16 <5 <5 <5
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek 451.0 457.0 470.0 : <5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
Cannelton Lock an 42.0 46.0 50.0 : 36 34 5 9 <5 <5
McAlpine Lower 55.0 65.0 73.0 : 24 25 <5 <5 <5 <5
McAlpine Upper 23.0 30.0 38.0 : 31 31 <5 7 <5 <5
Tell City 38.0 44.0 50.0 : 60 57 9 15 <5 <5
:Rolling Fork River
Boston 35.0 42.0 45.0 : 32 44 10 20 <5 11
:Rough River
Dundee 25.0 28.0 30.0 : 48 39 28 22 <5 5
:Salt River
Shepherdsville 32.0 35.0 40.0 : 14 9 9 7 5 <5
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana 20.0 22.0 23.0 : 21 18 12 12 9 9
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/05/2025 - 06/03/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Barren River
Bowling Green 10.9 12.0 15.0 22.4 26.5 30.9 36.6
:Blue River
Fredericksburg 6.5 7.0 9.7 16.6 22.7 25.6 26.0
:Cumberland River
Burkesville 44.0 44.1 44.2 45.0 46.6 48.5 49.3
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton 10.9 12.7 15.8 22.6 28.4 31.0 32.9
:Elkhorn Creek
Peaks Mill 5.9 6.2 7.1 7.9 11.0 13.4 16.4
:Green River
Munfordville 11.4 12.3 15.4 18.1 27.3 37.9 41.5
Mammoth Cave 20.9 22.2 26.1 29.8 36.7 42.3 44.4
Rochester 33.5 34.2 35.9 38.1 41.5 44.3 45.7
Woodbury 17.1 19.8 24.6 29.8 34.5 39.8 42.4
:Kentucky River
Camp Nelson Lock 20.8 22.0 23.6 26.3 28.9 34.8 42.0
Frankfort Lock 12.6 13.5 15.0 18.7 24.2 31.8 35.0
Ford Lock 17.7 18.7 19.9 21.9 25.1 28.1 35.1
High Bridge Lock 17.3 18.1 19.4 21.7 25.3 32.4 37.8
Lockport Lock 17.0 17.9 20.8 26.5 31.9 40.4 44.9
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring 16.2 18.2 20.1 25.7 29.7 34.2 36.7
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy 10.7 11.5 19.3 23.4 26.4 29.1 31.1
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek 432.2 434.7 438.3 444.4 448.1 450.7 451.0
Cannelton Lock an 29.2 32.3 35.9 41.0 42.7 44.4 46.1
McAlpine Lower 35.4 38.9 44.6 50.6 54.8 57.9 58.8
McAlpine Upper 13.9 15.6 17.3 20.4 23.9 26.8 27.8
Tell City 28.1 31.2 34.6 40.5 42.2 43.7 45.1
:Rolling Fork River
Boston 19.4 22.0 26.0 31.7 36.4 42.2 44.8
:Rough River
Dundee 14.8 16.7 19.3 24.7 28.5 28.9 29.8
:Salt River
Shepherdsville 7.3 8.5 9.6 15.2 27.7 33.7 40.0
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana 9.0 9.8 11.5 14.9 19.0 22.3 24.9
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/05/2025 - 06/03/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Barren River
Bowling Green 5.3 5.2 4.6 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6
:Blue River
Fredericksburg 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6
:Cumberland River
Burkesville 32.7 32.2 30.1 28.4 27.7 27.4 26.6
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2
:Elkhorn Creek
Peaks Mill 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1
:Green River
Munfordville 5.5 4.6 4.0 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1
Mammoth Cave 13.3 12.1 11.3 10.6 10.2 9.8 9.8
Rochester 30.5 29.6 28.9 28.1 27.6 27.1 26.9
Woodbury 8.2 6.3 4.6 3.3 3.0 2.6 2.6
:Kentucky River
Camp Nelson Lock 13.2 12.9 12.4 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.7
Frankfort Lock 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.9
Ford Lock 11.4 11.1 10.6 10.3 10.1 9.9 9.9
High Bridge Lock 10.8 10.5 9.9 9.5 9.3 9.1 9.0
Lockport Lock 10.0 9.7 9.2 8.8 8.6 8.5 8.4
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring 12.2 11.7 9.9 6.7 6.0 5.2 5.1
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek 422.8 422.3 421.8 421.4 421.1 421.0 420.8
Cannelton Lock an 15.9 14.6 13.4 12.2 11.7 11.4 11.0
McAlpine Lower 18.1 16.3 14.3 12.8 11.9 11.4 10.9
McAlpine Upper 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5
Tell City 16.5 15.5 14.6 13.6 13.1 12.7 12.4
:Rolling Fork River
Boston 5.2 5.0 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.1 3.0
:Rough River
Dundee 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7
:Salt River
Shepherdsville 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Since late November, precipitation has been well above normal and
temperatures have been below normal across the region. As of late
February, soil moisture was well above normal and streamflows were
near normal over southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Reservoir
levels were near or above normal.
Over the next week, the weather pattern will be fairly dry until next
Tuesday-Wednesday when the next weather system is expected to bring
1-2 inches of rain to the region. This could result in some minor
river flooding.
The 8-14 day outlook which goes out through March 13 calls for above
normal precipitation and near normal temperatures. At this
time of year, normal temperatures are in the lower 40s and normal
precipitation is around a tenth to a half inch.
The outlook for mid to late March calls for above normal
precipitation and warmer than normal temperatures. Normal
temperatures for mid March are in the low to mid 40s with normal
precipitation between a quarter to one inch.
The seasonal outlook for March through May indicates good
chances for above normal temperatures and precipitation.
Additional supportive data and explanations are available for
precipitation and temperature outlooks as well as soil moisture at
www.cpc.noaa.gov.
Current snowpack data are available at www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa.
Current streamflow data are available at water.usgs.gov/waterwatch.
Current reservoir levels for this area are available at www.lrl-
wc.usace.army.mil/reports/lkreport.html.
Visit our web site weather.gov/lmk for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued March 13.
$$
AMS