486
FXUS63 KLMK 131044
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
644 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Dry conditions are expected through the rest of the workweek with
   highs mostly in the 70s.

*  Shower and storm chances are expected this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Mostly sunny skies and unseasonably warm temperatures can be
expected for another day as we start the new week. Upper level and
sfc ridging will continue to keep skies clear with plenty of
sunshine. Have continued with the trend of going a bit higher on
guidance for daytime highs thanks to the dry conditions and sunny
conditions. Overnight, like the last previous night, skies will be
clear, winds will be light, patchy ground fog in low lying areas and
valleys with lows mid/upper 40s to near 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Dry, quiet weather along with unseasonably warm temperatures will
continue through the first half of the week due to broad ridging
both aloft and at the surface. Skies will also remain mostly clear
through most of the week, with the only exception being on
Wednesday. Weak sfc boundary approaches from the west-northwest
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Boundary looks to washout as it tries
to work into KY with only some increased clouds across southern IN
and north central KY.

Temperatures will average around 5 degrees above normal for this
time of year. Tues/Wed will feature highs in the mid/upper 70s to
near 80. Temperatures cool off some for Thursday but warm back up by
the end of the week.

The upper ridge starts to break down as an approaching closed low
coming in off the California coast on Tuesday works into the Dakotas
by the end of the week and gets absorbed by the main flow of the jet
stream. Southerly flow will help to increase temperatures and allow
for moisture to advect into the region by the weekend. Sfc cold
front approaches from the west as a sfc low develops along the
leading edge of the approaching trough. This will give us the  best
chance of seeing widespread showers and storms in the forecast.
While it is still to early for any specific details on how much rain
and even the potential for severe weather given the discrepancy
spread in the deterministic models, it should be noted that this
needs to be watched over the next few days as we get closer and the
models start to come into agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 644 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Impacts: Little to none VFR flight categories


Discussion: Other than HNB having some spotty VIS issues this
morning the rest of the terminals were VFR. Ridging aloft and at the
sfc will keep skies clear. Winds will increase during the afternoon
and remain northerly to around 5 to 7 kts. Overall more nice weather
for flying.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN