069
FXUS63 KLMK 121041
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
641 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Dry conditions are expected through the rest of the workweek with
   highs mostly in the 70s.

*  The next chance of rain arrives next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

We will remain under the influence of both strong sfc ridging
associated with high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and upper
ridging over the eastern half of the CONUS. Weather today will be
very similar to what it was yesterday with mostly sunny skies and
slightly above normal temperatures. Highs yesterday ran about 2 to 3
degrees above guidance so will trend that way with our highs. Thing
temperatures will once again range from the mid/upper 70s to near 80.
Another clear and nearly calm night tonight, could once again see
some patchy fog again develop in low lying areas or along river
valleys. Lows will also be similar to this morning in the mid/upper
40s to near 50 in some urban areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Little overall change to the patter as we start the new week as we
remain under both surface and upper ridging. This will give us
mostly sunny skies and continued above normal temperatures for mid
October with highs in the mid/upper 70s to near 80. Weak, moisture
starved cold front will approach from the west Tuesday into
Wednesday. May see some increased clouds from this but that is about
it as we will continue to stay dry with strong ridging aloft and
surface high pressure building in over the area. Temperatures may
turn a bit cooler for Wednesday and Thursday, depending on how far
south the front pushes into the Ohio Valley. Could see highs back
into the low/mid 70s.

By the end of the week the blocking pattern begins to shift eastward
and break down slightly as deep shortwave trough works from the
Pacific Northwest towards the central US by the start of the
weekend. Sfc high pressure will also shift eastward allow for more
return flow and moisture to advect into the region. Sfc low looks to
develop near the Dakotas and drag a cold front towards the Ohio
Valley. Both the GFS/ECMWF pick up on this idea but there remains
discrepancies in timing as the GFS remains the faster solution
bringing rain chances into the area for Saturday as the ECMWF is
still slower trending more towards the end of the weekend. Both
agreeing that this will likely be our best chance at seeing
widespread showers and storms over the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

We will remain high and dry thanks to both sfc and upper level
ridging. So far have not had a lot of fog materialize around our
terminals. Left some in for HNB but took the rest out. It is still
possible but confidence is lower. VFR conditions with winds mainly
north-northeast which takes us through the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN