322
FXUS63 KLMK 151052
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
652 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Dry conditions are expected through the rest of the workweek with
   highs mostly in the 70s.

*  Gusty southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph and highs into the 80s on
   Saturday ahead of the approaching system.

*  Strong frontal boundary to move through the region late Saturday
   and into Sunday. Strong thunderstorms, with gusty winds will be
   possible during this time frame along with 1-2 inches of rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 428 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Another day of sunny to mostly sunny weather is expected for today.
A weak, moisture starved cold front will linger a bit to our north
across southern IN before dropping southward late in the day. Other
than a few high clouds for parts of southern IN, north central KY
into the Bluegrass it will be mostly sunny. Because of this quasi-
stationary boundary, there will be a strong temperatures gradient
with low 70s across the Bluegrass to low 80s and upper 70s for
western KY and around Bowling Green.

Mainly clear skies overnight as the front drops southward, winds
will be out of the east and lows will range from the low/mid 40s
from the Bluegrass to east if I-65 with mid/upper 40s west of I-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 428 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

The end of the week will feature more of the same as the past
several days, with dry, quiet weather and temperatures near to
slightly above normal thanks to the continued influence of the upper
level ridging and sfc high pressure over the region. By Friday, the
upper ridge starts to break down and shift eastward over spine of
the Appalachain Mountains as the sfc ridging moves along the
east coast of the CONUS. At the same time, an upper low over the
Intermountain West will lift to the northeast into the Dakotas as it
opens up and develops into a upper level trough over the central US
by Friday evening. A deepening sfc low will also take shape over the
Dakotas and lift northward into Canada as a trailing cold front
stretches from the Upper Midwest southward into Texas.

As the upper trough and associated cold front approach the region
late Friday into Saturday, return southerly flow will increase ahead
of the approaching cold front advecting Gulf moisture northward into
the Ohio Valley. Sfc pressure gradient begins to tighten up ahead of
the boundary increasing the SW flow and producing some gusty winds
over the area during the day Saturday. Along with the moisture
advection pushing dewpoints into the upper 50s to low 60s, we will
also see warmer air advect in with afternoon temperatures climb to
near or into the mid 80s.

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing along and just ahead of
the strong cold front stretching from Chicago to St. Louis to Tulsa.
Rain showers and a few thunderstorms could start to enter our far
western CWA by Saturday afternoon, however, the best forcing and
deep moisture doesn`t appear to arrive until Saturday night, which
the deterministic models are starting to agree on.

As the strong cold front approaches from the west Saturday night,
LLJ increases to around 45-55kts as PWAT values rise to between
1.50" to 1.75" or about 220 percent above climatological normals. A
line of broken convection with moderate to heavy rainfall will be
working through southern IN and central KY from the west to the east
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Winds will also remain
gusty and the question remains how much of the strong LLJ winds will
be allowed to make it to the surface as the showers and storms work
across the CWA. Some models soundings continue to indicate a
nocturnal inversion over the area as the strong LLJ develops, if the
inversion holds, it would diminish some of the potential severe
threat we would have with some of these storms.

As was mentioned in the previous discussion, we continue to see a
low-end severe threat Saturday night as we will be dealing with a
high shear, low CAPE scenario giving that the arrival is in the
evening with only a couple hundreds of MUCAPE. CIPS analogs along
with the SPC continue to highlight areas further west across far
western KY, southern IL, southeast MO and AR as the more favorable
areas for severe weather. While the risk for severe weather remains
low, it isn`t zero, and with a strong LLJ, any storms embedded along
the line could produce severe level wind gusts.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches continues to be
advertised, with locally heavier amounts possible. While not high
given the continued dry conditions across the area for the last
week, localized flooding issues can not be ruled out, but the shower
and storms activity looks to move through fairly quickly.

Cold front will be working from the west to the east during the day
Sunday. While the best forcing associated with the LLJ will be off
to the east, a few scattered showers and thunderstorms are still
possible during the day. Post-frontal cloud cover along with
increasing CAA will provide for cooler temperatures on Sunday. Highs
will range from the mid/upper 60s across the northern half of the
CWA with upper 60s to near 70 across the KY/TN border. By late
Sunday afternoon into the evening, rain will move out and clouds
will gradually clear from west to east.

Slight ridging returns behind the departing system on Monday over
the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Sfc high pressure will build in over
the region from the south during the day Monday for drier cooler
day. By Tuesday and Wednesday, another system along with an upper
trough could work into the Ohio Valley with another round of
possible showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 652 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Quiet sensible weather will continue with VFR flight categories
through the forecast period. Some patchy ground fog has formed for
HNB/BWG, the low MVFR/IFR VIS won`t last long and mix out shortly
after the start of the period. A weak front will sag across the
region to the north and slowly move into the area during the day.
Just some high clouds are possible and northeast winds in the
afternoon around 7-10kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN