783
FXUS63 KLMK 060046
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
846 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...Forecast Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm Sunday late
   afternoon into early evening along and east of Interstate 75.

*  Dry weather and below normal temperatures much of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 846 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

The forecast is on track tonight. Quiet weather expected overnight
with perhaps some patchy fog across our southern CWA. No changes
planned at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Another warm and dry day under flat ridging aloft, with sfc high
pressure retreating into New England. Bowling ball upper low will
move from Lake Winnipeg to near James Bay by Sunday evening, pushing
a cold front into the Ohio Valley. However, deep moisture is lacking
so precip chances will be limited at best. Look for isolated
showers or thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon into early evening in
the Bluegrass region, while areas farther west will see little more
than some scattered high-based clouds. Even where it does rain, QPF
will be limited to a tenth or two, and the better forcing to support
severe potential will be well to our east and northeast. Temps
overnight and Sunday will run 2-3 degrees warmer than today given
low-level thickness progs and the pre-frontal SW flow environment.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Sunday night, a wide upper ridge, centered over the Rockies, will
extend east to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure over
the Plains will get pushed by the upper ridge southeast into the
Midwest. This high pressure will begin building over southern
Indiana and central Kentucky as it follows the cold front through
the CWA. Cold air advection ahead of the high will help temperatures
drop down into the mid 40s to low 50s by Friday morning.

For the rest of the week, the upper ridge will continue to slide
east towards the Lower Ohio Valley as the surface high slowly works
through the area. This will keep area skies clear with light cold
air advection in place through around Thursday. Expect highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s on Monday and Tuesday before the mid 70s return
by the end of the work week for most. Some areas east of Interstate
65 will take a couple of extra days to see temperatures higher than
those in the upper 60s and low 70s as the high sits over the area
and keeps CAA in place a little longer.

By the weekend, the surface high will be east of the CWA, return
flow will move in over the area. Temperatures will begin to climb
into the mid to upper 70s across most of the area under
continued clear skies.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 807 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

VFR conditions through the valid TAF period outside of a low
confidence fog threat at BWG. Went with a persistence forecast here,
and crossover T also suggests some fog possible. Looking for light
and variable or calm winds overnight. Tomorrow, a decent pressure
gradient develops late morning with steady SW and WSW winds into the
afternoon. Some gusts 20-25 mph expected in the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...BJS